Yankees @ Redsox ...... Game 5

british bulldog

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 5, 2002
695
1
0
62
England, u.k.
New York Yankees @ Boston Redsox (game 5)


These two teams meet in an afternoon matchup for the final game at Fenway (at least for this series for you Boston fans out there). What is surprising that these two sides have high powered lineups yet the under has cashed in every game. Simply amazing considering both teams were in the top 5 of almost every major offensive category during the regular season.

Boston caught a break with the weather and the watering of the outfield for three hours prior to the rains on Sunday allowing them to adjust their starting rotation. The rains were forecasted and it makes one wonder if the outfield was given a good soaking prior to the rains with the groundstaff, front office and playing staff knowing that Fenway is one of the worst draining stadiums in all of major league baseball ?

This afternoon, Boston manager Grady Little is going back to right hander Derrick Lowe who has an ERA of 4.42. Little is going with Lowe today as opposed to Thursday in Yankee stadium for one simple fact, Lowe stinks on the road. He is 6-5 this season with an ERA of 6.11 away from Fenway, but at Fenway, well we have a different story. Lowe shines as he is 11-2 with a 3.21 ERA. The reverse is true for Yankees starter David Wells. Perhaps, Wells is afraid of the Yankee fans, perhaps he is just too hung over from going out in New York City the night before, whatever the reason, Wells is a much better pitcher away from Yankee stadium as his 11-4 3.30 ERA would indicate.

A great case for the under here right? Scared bats, all under games thus far in the series. These two teams offenses are very capable of being potent as their offensive numbers from the regular season would indicate. I should also point out that previous to this series, 4 of their last 5 ballgames soared way over the posted total. So one would think their bats will have to start swinging sometime right?

A little information about the batting numbers so far in the series. The Yankees last 10 games have seen their lineup hit a cumulative .237 vs. righties and .267 vs. lefties. The Sox are hitting .250 vs. righties and a dismal .202 vs. lefties. When comparing this to their .268 and .284 batting averages on the year, we have an anomaly folks, a flat out freak of nature. Can this go on?

Yes, I see no reason, Both Lowe and Wells have commanding stuff, both offensive line ups har giving up to many cheap outs. Boston stealing bases when they have verey poor speed and leaving runners on base in clutch situations. Last night it was the turn of the Pin Stripes to leave all the runners on base. Pitching and defense wins the day again.

On a personnal note I do hope this series moves onto game 7 when fireworks WILL HAPPEN and Yankees will have advantage from the very first innings. It has been said and heard that Clemens has been instructed, infact ordered by Steinbrenner to hit one of the Boston hitters in the very first innings, therefore getting both pitchers and managers a warning that the next batter that is hit they are out of the game. This will take away the inside pitching that Pedro so much likes to use. No pre match warnings were given out for last nights game and I expect this to continue. You can guarantee that after last Saturday, Clemens has been biding his time, and this will come in top of the first on Thursday. Hold onto your head Johnny, you may be seeing stars again so soon after the last time as the Rocket is launched.
 

skulldog

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 16, 2000
966
3
0
Boston, Ma. USA
Re: Yankees @ Redsox ...... Game 5

"It has been said and heard that Clemens has been instructed, infact ordered by Steinbrenner to hit one of the Boston hitters in the very first innings, therefore getting both pitchers and managers a warning that the next batter that is hit they are out of the game. This will take away the inside pitching that Pedro so much likes to use. No pre match warnings were given out for last nights game and I expect this to continue. You can guarantee that after last Saturday, Clemens has been biding his time, and this will come in top of the first on Thursday. Hold onto your head Johnny, you may be seeing stars again so soon after the last time as the Rocket is launched."

Looking to start crap again I see. They'll be a warning WHEN it gets to gm 7 before the start, so should roger hit anybody, he'll be gone, so stop praying. Clemens will come up w/a fictious injury like he did in 1986, and opt out of the gm no matter what the score is.:shrug:

Sox in seven:thefinger
 
Last edited:

shamrock

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 12, 2001
8,314
329
83
Boston, MA
British,
first I can guarantee Fenway was not watered for 3 hours before game Sunday, it would serve absolutely no purpose, it could not possibly rain harder, even the clubhouses were flooded. Conversely the Sox had helicopters attempting to dry the field for hours before the game. It rained incredibly hard Sunday and all day Sunday. We may not like the Yankees, but we don't control the weather in Boston:nono:

secondly, Lowe is pitching because he is the #2 best pitcher on the team, plain and simple. With that 11-2 record at home, little would be stupid to bypass him. Now the field was not watered Sunday as you accused. But I am guaranteeing you the infield grass was not cut yesterday or today. That is Lowe' s advantage at Fenway, SLOW INFIELD.:D Hey they have to make up for that lack off range somehow.

Thirdly David Wells, May like the road, but he hates Fenway, he is on the record saying it is his worst park to pitch in and "wishes they would blow that place up". He is however a money playoff pitcher with a extremely impressive 9-2 playoff lifetime record, majority of these wins came with Wells being a much younger guy. That said he threw a magnificent 8 innings against Minnesota yielding only 1 run his last playoffs start October 5. Most Boston hitters hit Wells extremely wellBATTER VS. PITCHER (Career)
vs David Wells
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Mueller 10 5 1 3 0 .500
Mirabelli 3 1 0 0 1 .333
Damon 59 19 0 1 4 .322
Ramirez 56 17 2 5 11 .304
Varitek 43 13 4 1 10 .302


Matsuii is the only Yankee with quality numbers against Lowe and meaningful AB' S guys like Sierra Wilson & Rivera have ok average but limited at bats & only 1 hit.

Forth, Boston numbers over last 10 against lhp are somewhat skewed because those figures are solely against Pettitte & Zito, at this stage of his career. Wells is no Pettitte or Zito.

Lastly Clemens glorious career ends this season, if he hits Damon on his next start, which he very well might. It will be because he has always had his teammates backs, ALWAYS. It will have absolutely nothing to do what the big mouth boss says.

Good luck,
best, shamrock
 

Hoops

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 10, 1999
2,706
0
0
Warnings weren't issued last night because Wakefield and Mussina (who is on record that he will not hit anyone intentionally) were pitching. Different story if there is a Game 7 with Pedro and Clemens pitching...warnings will be issued before the game.

And if Clemens wants, or is 'ordered', to hit Damon and get tossed, let him do it. Pretty stupid move considering a trip to the World Series is on the line.
 
Last edited:

lay the wood2

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 19, 2003
1,024
4
0
New York City
BOSOX ARE IN TROUBLE, LOWE BRINGS HIS HIGH ERA AGAINST A TEAM WHO LOVES POURING ON THE RUNS WHEN THEY GET IT GOING, NOT A MATCHUP I WOULD LIKE AS A REDSOX FAN
 

british bulldog

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 5, 2002
695
1
0
62
England, u.k.
Now how did I know that Hoops and Skulldog would post on this thread. You come into tme threads that I start, you TRY to correct me, yet I only write what I have found on the net. I got the watering of the outfield off the Boston Redsox site Sunday evening. So either your wrong or the Redsox print crap on their site.

You post garbage yet not one of you are prepared to state the plays you make and post your monthly and yearly record, why is that?

Probably because the plays are as useless as what you lot write. I will put my yearly record up against any capper on this site and I know that the units I won and my ROI will put me in the top dozen.

Shamrock, I know you are probably trying to help but your figures are for regular season, we are talking post season. Those pitchers who have been there and done it step up on the mound every game and produce the goods. You posted the following;

PITCHER (Career)
vs David Wells
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Mueller 10 5 1 3 0 .500
Mirabelli 3 1 0 0 1 .333
Damon 59 19 0 1 4 .322
Ramirez 56 17 2 5 11 .304
Varitek 43 13 4 1 10 .302

Well what was it tonight. Those 5 players didn't get .200 between them did they?

Skulldog you post "Looking to start crap again I see". Well my answer to you is, your still talking crap and you have done all series.

Now remind me what is the score. It's the bottom of the eigth and the best closer in postseason baseball is on the mound. Oh yes, I remember, 4 - 2
 

british bulldog

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 5, 2002
695
1
0
62
England, u.k.
I am going to give both Hoops and Skulldog a lesson in capping. This is why the yankees were the play tonight and the total under. Pay attention, read, and you will learn.


NY Yankees @ Boston Redsox (game 5) Wells / Lowe

While everyone is talking about what an advantage the Sunday rainout was for the Red Sox because Lowe pitches so much better at home, what should not be overlooked is the fact that Wells has been brilliant on the road.

David Wells posted an 8-2 record with a 3.36 ERA and an excellent 1.12 WHIP away from Yankee Stadium this year (including his start at Minnesota in the ALDS). He is in fine current form, with 5 Quality Starts in his last 6 efforts.

Note the win record, Wells's ERA and more importantly his WHIP and current form . When looking at form nothing is more important than QUALITY starts.

Derek Lowe is 11-2 at home with a 3.21 ERA this season. Lowe is 6-7 with a 5.22 ERA vs the Yankees.

.Note: Although Lowe has a good home record, his record against New York is below average. His overall ERA is similar to Wells, yet it's 2 points higher than the season against the Yankees. This implies that the Yankees know how to lay off the sinker.

Wells has pitched very well against Boston, especially at Fenway. Wells has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts here and that's over 20 1/3 innings. The last time he faced the Sox in September, he allowed just 1 UNEARNED run and 5 hits in 7 1/3.

Note: This implies to me that Boston have yet to work out his slider and change up, especially the one that sinks.

Contray to Lowe's great numbers, he has not pitched particularly well against the Yankees this season, not even at home. In 6 total starts against the Yankees, Lowe has a high 6.10 ERA with a poor 1.55 WHIP, and his numbers are not much better in 2 starts at Fenway (where he's supposed to be un-hittable) against the Yankees with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP.

Note: A further indication that Lowe just does not have the quality of pitches to worry the Yankees batters. The high Whip tells me that he lacks command and further emphasises thepoint of laying off the sinker.

The 'under' has appeared in all four games of this series. The Yankees have seen the under in 10 of their L11 games. The under is 8-1-2 L11 Red sox games.

Red Sox are batting just .202 vs LH over their L10 games while the Yanks are hitting at .237 vs RH their L10 games.

Note: If the present trend isn't broke why try and break it. Yankees have batted poorly all postseason aswell as Boston. Very few clutch hitting by both teams and pathetic attempts to steal bases by Boston's tortoise like runners.

One last thing New York's road record of 54-30 is the best in all of baseball this season.


I hope this lesson will be beneficial to you for next season.
 

shamrock

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 12, 2001
8,314
329
83
Boston, MA
British, although you have some valid points, I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from.

David Wells is 10/14 in 36 lifetime starts against Boston. He has a career era well over 5 at Fenway lifetime and is on the record as saying "I hate pitching at Fenway, I wish they would blow the place up". He did pitch a nice game in September against Boston yielding 1 unearned run, but at Yankee Stadium. Further in 25 innings work against Boston this season he yielded up 34 hits 12 runs all earned, 9bb, 5 homers and Sox hit.292 against him.

At Fenway in this season 12 innings work 16 hits 6bb Sox hit.314 against him at Fenway this season. Hardly spectacular numbers

Derek Lowe was 2-0 5.55 against New York this season in 4 starts. 6-7 5.22 lifetime against these Yankees 10 career starts & 6 saves. Derek Lowe 5-1 4.41 day games this season.

Boston 56-29 at Fenway this season, best home record in League.

Its very simple to handicap game when it is over. This game was extremely even. That's why the ml was Boston -112, Las Vegas pretty much telling you its a even matchup.

Good luck
best shamrock
 

british bulldog

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 5, 2002
695
1
0
62
England, u.k.
Shamrock, we can all quote lifetime stats,but quite frankly what happened last season has very little bearing this year because playing staff is so different. I prefer to stick to recent stats and Wells had quality innings coming into todays game. Lowe didn't. Lowe had pitched a lot of innings in three starts and two in relief, Wells had one start, fresher arms.

But as you clearly like stats from yester year here are some more that would make Yankees and Under the plays.

Boston are 28 - 53 (O/U) WHEN FACING LEFT HANDED STARTER.

Boston are 48 - 83 (O/U) vs. WINNING TEAMS.

Boston are 63 - 78 vs. STARTING PITCHER WITH GOOD CONTROL, <1.75 BB?s.

Boston are 29- 36 WITH A BULLPEN WHOSE ERA IS UNDER 2.00 THE LAST 5 GAMES.

All these stats are over the last three years. Still wanted to play BOSTON, :nono: I didn't think so.


Also you state "Its very simple to handicap game when it is over". Well I gave the under here on the thread but if you visit my community pages under selections where all my plays are posted you will see that the plays for todays game was Yankees and Under both for 2 units and both + money. So check it out.
 

shamrock

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 12, 2001
8,314
329
83
Boston, MA
" Further in 25 innings work against Boston this season he yielded up 34 hits 12 runs all earned, 9bb, 5 homers and Sox hit.292 against him.

At Fenway in this season 12 innings work 16 hits 6bb Sox hit.314 against him at Fenway this season. Hardly spectacular numbers

Derek Lowe was 2-0 5.55 against New York this season in 4 starts. 6-7 5.22 lifetime against these Yankees 10 career starts & 6 saves. Derek Lowe 5-1 4.41 day games this season.

Boston 56-29 at Fenway this season, best home record in League. "

stats from years ago? British what are you talking about? 90% of that last Post was THIS YEARS STATS.

in 25 innings work THIS YEAR against Boston David Wells yielded 34 hits 12 runs 11 earned runs 9bb 5 homers and Boston hit 292 against him. Further they hit 314 against him at FENWAY PARK. these are hardly great numbers.

Conversely DEREK LOWE THIS SEASON not only had fantastic numbers at Fenway, but was 2-0 5.55 against Yankees this season.

Now I'm not trying to be a pain in the ass, in fact I'm happy you won your wager. However you were giving lessons above and several of your factual statistics were wrong. That's all I'm saying, don't know where they were coming from. Again I'm glad you won your wager, but many statistical trends back Yankees or Boston play today. Again congratulations on your win

best
shamrock
 

british bulldog

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 5, 2002
695
1
0
62
England, u.k.
Shamrock, Thanks for input and info.

I presume by your forum name you have an Irish connection somewhere. Is it family / relatives, if so what part of Country do they come from. Lovely Country, great people and a joy to live there. I get over there about three times a year to see friends and family.

Best wishes and kind regards

bulldog
 

crookycymru

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 22, 2002
809
0
0
45
Wales (United Kingdom)
I probably should not get involved with this thread, but I cant help myself.

I have always wondered how anybody can cap a game using stats like the ones I see in these threads. Now every game is different, and I am sure if you monitor how often your cat scratches its ass every morning, I am sure you will see a trend, but that means nothing. Surely some of these stats are the road to ruin....in fact I am sure they are. :nono:

Secondly, I consider you a good guy Bulldog, but you know as well as I do that you cant compare your bets to ?100 a point when a lot of your bets are on the spreads. I am willing to bet money you dont bet on the spreads to ?100 a point, and I for one would like to see you posting in the forums more often. I hope you dont think I am having a pop at you, because I am not, but this is a open forum and I am just giving you my opinion.

Good luck with your plays.....I hope you skin them! ;)
 
Last edited:

british bulldog

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 5, 2002
695
1
0
62
England, u.k.
Crooky

As you are aware I have done and still do (but to a lesser extent) post plays in various forums. I have declined to post every single play I make in a forum because most of the time I get slated. I have received plenty of e-mails from members and probably non-members both sending well wishes and un-printable stuff. I had not been using the community pages on a regular basis and I decided that this is the place to post my plays as this is the purpose of the community files. People who then wish to see if I have any plays know exactly where to go and don't have to search the forums for any postings from me. It keeps everything nice and tidy and in one place.

Now you raise the point about my stakes. If I say 1 point or 1 unit then for the purposes of this site that is ?100 or $100. Now 1 point or 1 unit for me is double this amount. If you go back through all my recommendations you will find that I have suggested 1 point as a maximum on spread bets unless the lines are small and the worse case sceniro would be a loss of say 2-3 points, then if this being the case I may recommend 2 units. I have at times played at 0.25 units or 0.5 units.

As for most of my plays on the spreads, there have been only several occurancies in over 12 months when I have posted spread recommendations. Namely cricket world cup where I had about 4 plays and last test match against South Africa. Go check it out. I may have one or two more but six will be the max.

I will accept your wager, how much would you like as your stake as you asked me "I am willing to bet money you dont bet on the spreads to ?100 a point". I personally played the last posting I made on the spreads in the "one hundred market" in the South Africa test match at ?200 per point and the play was given out as 0.5 points. You may ask why so large an amount, well the stats at the Oval over the years suggest a play with atleast one score of 100+ and in most cases two and more have been scored. Both Countries bowlers lacked quality and depth, Pollock apart. It is the only true test wicket we have in this country. I felt the down side to this bet was a max of 50 units so at 0.5 units staked that meant a loss of 25 units and if I was completely wrong then I would suffer a loss of 46 units. However, I was already up nearly 200 units at the time of this play so I was in affect jeopardising 25% of my profits. That is what it is profits. I need 120 points per year to break even, this pays all my expenditure, bills, food, mortgage. Anymore than 120 points and the surplus goes towards luxuries and back into bankroll so my points profit target would be less for the following as my stakes would be higher. So in affect I was 80 points in front of my original target of 120 points. Split 50/50 between bankroll and luxuries that allowed me the 40 points that would have been going back into my betting tank to be used. Sound money management is very questionable, however I did say the worst down side I would have was 46 points, so in effect I was playing with 6 points. It's called speculation and this time it came off, on another occassion it might not. Would I make the same bet again ? Given the same stats and how I know the wicket has played over so many years and the position I was in terms of profit, YES.

So it is simple. If I win 1 point on the spread with a risk of 6 points or I stake 6 units to win 1 unit on moneyline, there is absolutely no difference. One unit is one unit and it does not matter how you arrive at it or achieve it. A spread bet is not much more than a string of bets. You may post 15 consecutive losers on the forum at 3 points on each, thats a loss of 45 units. You could and probably would say that it wouldn't happen because you are a good capper, well sorry, it doesn't matter how good a capper you are, I am telling you it will happen sometime during your betting years, the law of averages will see to that.

If I get time to post all my plays in the forum, then I will do so, but in the mean time that is out of the question. I am in the process of selling our family home and moving. Sorry to have to dissappoint you and anyone else and I will accept cash through the post from your losing wager.

Good luck Crooky and keep hitting those winning plays in the rugby.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top