Bye Week Stats

[Yarj]

Does anyone have retrospective stats of team results going into a bye week? This week:

Indy SU/ATS Loss
Jax SU/ATS Loss
Ari SU/ATS Loss
Pitt SU loss ATS win

Is going into a bye more of a potential let down spot than usually accounted for?


Just one opinion
Yarj

 

[hogman14]

Re: Bye Week Stats

Does anyone have retrospective stats of team results going into a bye week? This week:

Indy SU/ATS Loss
Jax SU/ATS Loss
Ari SU/ATS Loss
Pitt SU loss ATS win

Is going into a bye more of a potential let down spot than usually accounted for?


Records are ATS unless noted, 1990-2002

INDY (hosts HOU off bye)
7-8 SU off bye, 7-7-1 ATS
off loss
as HF 1-1-1
as HD 2-1

Jax (hosts TEN off bye)
7-3 SU off bye, 5-5 ATS
off loss
as HF 0-2
as HD 0-1

Ari (hosts SF off bye)
6-7 SU off bye, 9-4 ATS
off loss
as HF 1-1
as HD 3-1

Pit (hosts STL off bye)
8-6 SU off bye, 5-9 ATS
off loss
as HF 0-2
as HD 0-0

:tmi:

Hope that helped!

 

[Yarj]

HOGMAN

HOGMAN

Thanks Hogman. I always pay close attention to teams that are playing after their bye week, what I meant was teams that are playing their last game before their Bye. This week the 4 teams that played their last game prior to the bye went 0-4, and only Pit covered.

We often look at sandwich games where teams may have an emotional or psychological letdown following big games or look past a team to the following week's big game. How big of a factor is an upcoming bye week in a teams play?

Yarj

 

[hogman14]

I'd say an upcoming bye is more of a spot for a letdown, and more so later in the year...as teams may have already decided that they need much more than they have in that year to make it to the SB, or simply to rest up their veterans. Will look into trends for the following wks bye teams, etc and post later.

Although...I feel the only spot for a major problem with a team is off MNF. One less day of rest, traveling time, etc. These are professional athletes, and take these games one at a time....so we think. I think it's a bogus argument that teams are "emotionally" high, low, apathetic, etc...more on this later as well. I gotta run.

 

[Yarj]

Nolan

Nolan

This seems like the sort of stat you would have readily available. Nolan or anyone any retro stats around this?

Yarj

 

[hogman14]

Alright, you've got me hooked for the moment here....

Teams w/a bye on wk 6:

Cincy + 2.5 hosting Baltimore
4-10 SU after rest, 7-7 ATS
As HD...off loss 2-2 ATS, but 3-1 ATS v. divsion
Baltimore plays Denver wk 8...possibly overlooking the Bungals.
BUT, also in division....Cincy 0-6 ATS/0-8 SU game 6, 1-9 ATS as dogs of 6 or less,

Minny (NL) hosting Denver
10-4 SU/6-8 ATS off rest.
assuming they'll be laying 3? as HF off win 2-3 ATS (0-0 as HD off win before bye)

Det +3 hosting Dallas
7-9 SU/6-9-1 ATS off rest
as HD off loss 1-1 ATS
Detroit follows the pokies w/a trip to the windy city...


SD +6 At Cleveland
5-8 SU/6-7 ATS off rest
as RD off loss...1-1 ATS
SD hosts Miami in wk 8 on MNF...was in SD preseason, and this was a game they have been looking forward to forEVER....big hype...Seau's return....although at this point this game is quite insignificant if SD doesn't start winning.


*****************
St. Louis hosts GB wk 7. 1-7 ATS home off MNF; 1-3 last 4 home against the Pack. Like I was saying earlier, this is the only spot that I look at teams in terms of timing...less day rest, etc....0-8 SU off SU shutout win...GB going into a BYE after St. Louis...will be in a good spot for a SU/ATS win, in my opinion...

Atlanta hosting New Orleans
Dirty Birds have owned the series of late...10-2-1 ATS last 13, 4-1-1 last 6 in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta going into a BYE wk 8. Atlanta 1-4-1 ATS after Rams...New Orleans plays Carolina wk 8, TB wk 9, then bye wk 10.

Hope this helps!

 

[cash]

Yarj:

From another British Columbian (Vancouver)...a little nugget.

Hope the fires this summer did not get ya.

PLAY ON

Road teams heading into their bye.

last year 10-2-1 ats
this year 6-1 ats

this week: Washington and GreenBay

 

[Yarj]

Thanks Cash

Thanks Cash

The fires were close but we live right in town sow ere Ok. Had evacuees with us though...

Thanks for the stats for home teams going into a bye week. I can see how the bye would have more of a psychological effect for road teams than for home teams that should already be pumped up with their home field advantage. Does anyone have stats for home teams going into a bye to compare against cashs last post? How about in the last five years? This seems to be a winning trend yet I haven't heard to much about it.

Thanks all.

Yarj

 

[Yarj]

Favs and Dogs

Favs and Dogs

Does anyone know of a good free site with some retrospective stats that are sortable. It might be interesting to have these stats separated by road favs/dogs and away favs/dogs as to see whether underdogs perform better than favs going into their bye week.

Yarj

 

[GM]

Yarj -

A site I use for searches like this (hopefully Jack doesn't mind I've included a URL - if so, remove, and sorry) :

http://www.sportsdatabase.com/

You don't have to login. Just click on Query on the NFL (blue) line at the top, enter your parameters, and you instantly get your results. Also shows the 20 most recent games that qualify, but not sortable, and not able to look further back at specific games.

Just a tip. You may want to do this search from 1998 on, and then do it again from 2002 or 2003 on, just to see if the trend is getting hotter or colder (if there is a trend).

(edit) Oops, just noticed they don't have "look-ahead" queries. I guess this won't help.

Good luck.

 

[Yarj]

Thanks GM.

Thanks GM.

Thanks for the site GM. It doesn't seem to let you searc for teams going into a certain game such as a bye. Any additional sites?


Yarj

 

[GM]

Hi Yarj,

Tell ya what. I have a couple hours to kill tonight. I have the results from the last couple of years on my computer. I'll look it up and tabulate it manually for you. Back in a bit.

 

[GM]

2002/03 Results

2002/03 Results

Ok, got your answer. Bad news if you were looking for a strong angle against these teams. In fact, you almost have a play ON these teams, but it's not really strong.

Results of teams heading into a bye, 2002 & 2003.

Team listed first is the team that had the bye coming up.
Games in BOLD are games where SU winner was ATS loser.

2002:
Week 2 (bye in Week 3)
Pitt lost 17-30 vs Oak both teams*
Oak WON 30-17 @ Pitt both teams*
Balt lost 0-25 vs TB
Jax WON 23-16 @ KC

Week 3 (bye in Week 4)
Indy WON 23-3 @ Hou
Atl WON 30-3 vs Cin
Wash lost 10-20 @ SF both teams*
SF WON 20-10 vs Wash both teams*

Week 4 (bye in Week 5)
Hou lost 17-35 @ Phil (Phil favored by 19?)
Det WON 26-21 vs NO
Minn lost 23-48 vs Sea both teams*
Sea WON 48-23 @ Minn both teams*

Week 5 (bye in Week 6)
NYJ lost 25-29 vs KC
Phil lost 25-28 @ Jax
Chi lost 21-34 vs GB
Ariz WON 16-13 @ Car

Week 6 (bye in Week 7)
NE lost 10-28 vs GB
Cin lost 7-34 vs Pitt
Tenn WON 23-14 vs Jax
NYG lost 10-17 vs Atl

Week 7 (bye in Week 8)
Mia lost 10-23 vs Buf
SD WON 27-21 (in OT) @ Oak
GB WON 30-9 vs Wash
StL WON 37-20 vs Sea

Week 8 (bye in Week 9)
Den WON 24-16 @ NE
KC WON 20-10 vs Oak
NO lost 35-37 vs Atl
Car lost 9-12 vs TB (TB favored by 8)

Week 9 (bye in Week 10)
Buf lost 7-38 vs NE
**Clev lost 20-23 vs Pitt (Pitt favored by 3, game was a PUSH)
Dal lost 7-9 @ Det (Det favored by 3)
TB WON 38-24 vs Minn
.
.
.
2003:
Week 2 (bye in Week 3)
Dal WON 35-32 (in OT) @ NYG
Phil lost 10-31 vs NE
Chi lost 13-24 @ Minn
Car WON 12-9 (in OT) @ TB

Week 3 (bye in Week 4)
Mia WON 17-7 vs Buf
NYG WON 24-21 (in OT) @ Wash
TB WON 31-10 @ Atl
Sea WON 24-23 vs StL (Sea favored by 3)

Week 4 (bye in Week 5)
NYJ lost 6-17 vs Dal
Balt lost 10-17 vs KC
Hou WON 24-20 vs Jax
StL WON 37-13 vs Ariz

Week 5 (bye in Week 6)
Cin lost 16-22 (in OT) @ Buf (Buf favored by 8)
SD lost 21-27 @ Jax
Minn WON 39-26 @ Atl
**Det lost 17-24 @ SF (SF favored by 7, game was a PUSH)

Week 6 (bye in Week 7)
Pitt lost 14-17 @ Den (Den favored by 6?)
Ind lost 20-23 (in OT) vs Car
Jax lost 10-24 vs Mia
Ariz lost 18-26 vs Balt
.
.
.
Excluding games in which both teams were headed into a bye, teams going into a bye were:

In 2002: 12-14 SU, 15-10-1 ATS
In 2003: 9-11 SU, 10-9-1 ATS

 

[GM]

PLAY ON

Road teams heading into their bye.

last year 10-2-1 ats
this year 6-1 ats

this week: Washington and GreenBay

I've got slightly different #'s by my data, but it's close. I have:

Last year: 9-2
This year: 7-2-1

...and those #'s DO include games where both teams were going into a bye.

I believe I am going to have to add this to my database of systems. System #37 is born.

 

[Yarj]

Good stuff GM

Good stuff GM

Thx for the help, not much there unfortunately... I like the road teams going into a bye angle on a couple of levels. 1) The previous two years stats show an angle that consistently covers 2) It makes sense to me. A road team may have several challenges that ahome team doesn't face such as travel,
change in routines, and playing in a hostile environment. I think going into a bye week may help these teams psychologically compensate for these challenges.

We'll see.

Play on:
Washington +2.5
Green Bay + 4

YTD NFL Record 19-11

Yarj