Ahhhh....it's Wednesday

[GM]

I like Wednesdays around here. It's nice and quiet, and only the real hardcore people are in this forum. I mean, who the hell would handicap NFL games on a Wednesday unless they were serious about it? No need to look at the games til Sunday morning, or maybe Saturday night, right??

Thurs, Fri, Sat are all pretty good too. Lots of good info here on these 4 days. This place goes nuts on Sunday though and everything gets lost in the shuffle. Nothin' against the casual bettors, and I understand guys have lives and families and all that. And we need the masses to keep the place in business. But it's all a bit much for me on the weekend so I usually duck out. Just can't keep up with the reams of threads that are posted, most of them offering no insight into the games, just picks. There are no fights in here Wed-Sat either.

Hope you're all having a good year. Let's share some winners before the stampede rumbles through.

 

[JEFF]

Why would you need to look at the NFL games before Saturday night? For instance, last Sunday I got up at noon and looked at the lines. They had the Chiefs as an underdog in Green Bay! Then I looked at the records and KC was undefeated, and noticed they have and have Dante Hall who has returned kicks for touchdowns in almost every game. It was a lock! Guaranteed!

Research, sme-search.

 

[cash]

GM:

You're welcome for system 37.
A question.The wording for system #33 seems
strange. Is it correct?

System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (39-19, 67.2% since '92). **updated**

Is allowing LESS than 4.5 yards/play a detriment?

 

[THE HITMAN]

Uh Oh, Jeff. You really didn't say that, did you ??

 

[JEFF]

Hitman -- I was just kidding and didn't have that game, but you are allowed to use the L-word on games that have already been completed.

Usually in the context of, "I knew I should have put have my account on it, that sh!t was a lock!"

 

[MrChristo]

Absolutely agree, GM.

Thursday afternoon here in Oz, and all my capping is done for the week.
A quick check on some concensus sites.....Put bets on now if 'with the public', leave them until game time if against in hope of a better line.
Another quick check on Sunday for any late news and weather reports, and that's it!

Good luck to everyone.

 

[GM]

Hey cash,

Thanks again for that system. And yes, System #33 as it is worded IS correct, strange as it appears to be on the surface. And there was even a winner on it last week, as Buffalo was allowing just 4.4 yds/play for the season & lost to the Jets. At present there are 5 teams which are allowing 4.5/per play or less. Going off the top of my head...Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh (yes, really), Dallas...I forget the other one, but I check it out at NFL.com each week when I go through all my systems.

I mentioned last week that that particular system struck me as really strange. Like most of them, it's not one I developed. If it works, I'll stick with it. I don't know the theory behind it...but perhaps someone figured good defensive teams weren't as good on the road? Or teams can't continue to play at that high a level, and the road is a good place for them to falter? I don't know. Many of these systems go contrary to what you would be inclined to expect...betting against undefeated teams, betting on teams on losing streaks, etc... which is probably why they work. Who knows? :shrug:

Jeff: