Should I be trying to hedge this wager?

[lostinamerica]

I have made only one baseball bet all season. It was made at Bet365, and this is it:

PARLAY $10.00 to win $1777.18:
Oakland A's (+135) To Win Division
w/ Chicago Cubs(+550) To Win Division
w/ Atlanta Braves(+160) To Win Division
w/ San Francisco Giants(+350) To Win Division

I'm getting anxious. The Cubs seem to have the most favorable schedule in their division, and so far the "talking heads" have been right in predicting the A's would come from a good ways back and be the team to beat in their division.

I'm just a some time fan when it comes to baseball. Should I be doing anything other than scoreboard watching? Olympic is my only out with available futures [Seattle(+ 170), St. Louis(+200) or Houston(+170)], and I don't think they can be parlayed. Should I look to play the other side when the A's and Mariners go head to head? Any ideas from a wagering perspective or a baseball handicapping perspective?

Thanks.
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1 01/11/2003 2003 AL West
(To Win Division) Oakland A's
+135 To Win To Run

2 01/11/2003 2003 NL Central
(To Win Division) Chicago Cubs
+550 To Win To Run

3 01/11/2003 2003 NL East
(To Win Division) Atlanta Braves
+160 To Win To Run

4 01/11/2003 2003 NL West
(To Win Division) San Francisco Giants
+350 To Win To Run

Parlays

Wager Type No of Bets Unit Risk Risk To Win Returns

4 Play Parlays 1 10.00 10.00

Total Risk: 10.00 Total Returns: 1777.18

 

[bjfinste]

I'd throw a little straight each on the Astros, Cards and Mariners.

 

[lostinamerica]

I really like the idea of hitting it big on my only baseball wager of the season, which includes having absolute faith in the Cubs to close the deal. But passing up a fat opportunity to virtually (i.e. St. Louis) lock up a winner at Olympic today is more than my common sense will allow. It's still all about the Cubs, and I figure I won't walk away too disappointed if my original $10.00 wager only wins $1500.00 instead of $1777.00 when the Cubs deliver.

Hedging with:
- Houston Astros Win Central Division(+325) ($277.00 to win $900.00)

GO CUBS!!

GL

 

[SixFive]

nice dilemma to be in! I think it's smart to hedge like that and get the sure cash.

 

[lostinamerica]

CUBS WIN!!!! :toast:

$1500.00 (after the hedge) is my biggest payday ever ? on just a $10 wager! Before this it had been (66/1)($12) + (16.5)($12) = $990.00 on a $24 wager when Mike Weir won the Masters.

I?m a Giants fan all the way, but I?ve known for at least a month what my next bet would be:

PARLAY $100.00 to Win $1520.00 @ Bet365:
- Chicago Cubs(+350) Win National League Pennant
- w/ Boston Red Sox(+260) Win American League Pennant

GL

 

[gsp]

Good luck in the play-offs.

 

[lostinamerica]

Two centuries of futility are front and center now.

THE JOURNEY IS THE REWARD

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Time to revisit my 9/29/03 parlay.

The fat lady was warming up after the BoSox gave back their advantage on Saturday, but maybe The Man upstairs was saying, "not this time", and sent along some rain to provide a much needed day to roll back the tide. Regardless, I was committed enough to my wager to ride it out one more day, and I've been rewarded with a drop in the line on the Yankees winning the AL Pennant from (-340) to (-146). I've held out on a hedge long enough:

Damn Yankees(-146) Win American League Pennant
$365.00 to Win $250.00 @ Bet365

Of course the Cubs aren't out of the Woods Prior to the final out. Go get it - one at bat at a time. No fans ever deserved it more.

GO CUBS!!!

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

As far as a hedge to have some coverage for the last remaining possible combination of Marlins/Red Sox, I went with the moneyline on only today's games:

PARLAY Florida(+190) w/ Boston(+200)
$50.00 to Win $392.50 @ Bet365

Of course a scratch of one of the scheduled starting pitchers will conveniently blow that out of the water, and while the weather forecasts are favorable for baseball today, anything is possible.
---------- ---------- ----------

As for the epic and diabolical way the Cubs found last night to add a chapter to their storied tradition as loveable losers - it takes a village. As a life long Giants fan, my emotions while watching were empathy rather than pain, but it was laced with parallels to my own emotions when something approaching the same thing happened to my team in the 6th game of last year's World Series. The history the Cubs now have to overcome to get this done looks almost insurmountable, and you would have to guess that it's Florida that is due to get off to a quick start and just add to the pressure.

"Difficult things take a long time, impossible things a little longer."

GO CUBS!!!

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

LOOKING BACK:

Yesterday?s Game #7 hedge that I didn?t post: Boston(-110) = $110 to Win $100.

Post-season Bet Summary:
#1 = -$100
#2 = +$250
#3 = +$393
#4 = -$100
Net = +$443

A good follow-up to my initial $1500 winner, given that neither team won a pennant.
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LOOKING IN:

(1) The curses that are hard to dismiss are those of being either a Cub fan or a Red Sox fan. I extend my sincere condolences to both. God Bless and God Damn.

(2) If it wasn?t for standing by my decision to stick with only my futures plays, I would have been along for the ride and done quite nicely with all the right calls in this forum on the Overs, starting with the first game at Wrigley. :yup Givin? a big nod to the whole crew on a great job since I?ve been looking in!
---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

LOOKING AHEAD:

Yankees vs. Marlins World Series. Woo-Hoo!, Not. But congratulations to both.

Wager: Florida(+220) To Win World Series: $200 to Win $440 @ Bet365
- The only call for me based on what I?ve observed in October. I'm hoping there are no hedges to follow.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Believe me, I don't want to hedge, but I've come this far, and the biggest hurdles still stand in the way before any celebrations are uncorked.

Damn Yankees(+126) To Win World Series: $158.73 To Win $200.00 @ Bet365
---------- ---------- ----------

I don't like teams from South Florida, but it's hard to resist this Marlins team. Never putting money on an athlete or a team that has shown you a "look of destiny" based on your own ____ years of objectively watching games is like saying only tangibles and not intangibles can be gained from watching the games . . . After the final out in Game 5, Fox reporter Chris Meyers asked 72 year old skipper Jack McKeon how old he felt now, and McKeon replied, "Ahh - I feel about 35." And I believed him.

GL