Week 7 System Plays

[GM]

System Plays went 10-4 for Week 6.

It seems like every week there are more and more teams qualifying for these plays. I guess that is the nature of the systems. In the early weeks there were sometimes only 2 or 3 systems in play.

No overwhelming plays this week, but a number of teams come up more than once: Carolina, Denver, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and Oakland. It's getting to the point you could have a play on almost every game!

For the first time in weeks we have some systems in conflict, on the Green Bay/St Louis game.

No line up on Den @ Minn yet, so there's an outside shot systems could be added later in the week. But that will only happen if Denver is somehow favored. (That would also negate some Denver plays).

Here is what we have in play for this week:

System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).

Play on: Carolina (if they become the dog)

System #4 - Play on a home team that won it's last two games, both on the road (59-36-5, 62.1% since '89).

Play on: Miami

System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).

Play on: Miami

System #7 - Play on a home favorite of 3 or less that won outright on the road last week (61-37-7, 62.2% since '91).

Play on: Carolina (if they remain between -1 and -3)

System #8 - Play against a home favorite coming off their bye week (39-22-1, 63.9% since '98). **updated**

Play on: Denver (assuming Minn is favored)

System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).

Play on: Oakland

System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62% since 1983).

Play on: Detroit, Cincinnati, Houston (line must be exactly +3, and total 37 or less, or no play)

System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (24-3, 88.9% since start of '02, including 14-2, 87.5% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**

Play on: Chicago

System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 50-79-5, 61.2% Unders --- O/U 24-42-3, 63.6% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**

Play the Under on games involving: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Kansas City

System #19 - Play the Under when the home team is favored by 3 or less, and had a bye last week (15-0 for Unders since '98). **updated**

Play the Under on: Den/Minn (if Minn is favored by 3 or less)

System #19a - Play the Under when the home team is favored, coming off their bye week (38-21-1, 64.4% since '98). **updated**

Play the Under on: Den/Minn (if Minn is favored)

System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (73-42 ATS, 63.5% since '92). **updated**

Play on: Atlanta (if dog), Detroit

System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (47-28 ATS, 62.7% since '92). **updated**

Play on: Oakland, Detroit

System #23 - Play against an undefeated road favorite, (11-2, 84.6% ATS) **updated**

Play on: Oakland

System #24 - Play on the home underdog when both teams have winning records, or both teams have losing records(~70% since ???)

Play on: Atlanta (if dog), Houston

System #33 - Play against a road favorite which allows less than 4.5 yds/play (39-19, 67.2% since '92). **updated**

Play on: Detroit, San Francisco

System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games (??-??, trying to determine exact record)

Play on: Carolina, Denver, San Francisco

*NEW* System #37. Play on a road team that has a bye the following week (16-4-1, 80% since '02). **updated**

Play on: Washington, Green Bay

I'm hunting for a record on System #36, but believe it to be a strong winner. System #37 is new, posted by cash in this forum this week (Thank You!). I verified the record.

(edit) I found an additional play. Detroit qualifies under System #21. Combined with System #20...mmmm...I like that!

(edit #2) Removed StL from System #36, as both teams in this game have scored 90+ in the past 3 weeks.

Good luck everyone.

 

[AR182]

gm,

thanks for posting these system plays.

i might be able to find the won lost record on #36. but it probably be later today.


again thanks for these posts.


good luck

 

[RipIt3]

GM-

Has it been you keeping track of all of these for all of these years? Or do you find them somewhere else?

Either way, thanks for all the great work. It's much appreciated on my end, as well as countless others in here I'm sure.

I posted a reply to your question in my week 7 early leans.

Good luck this week!

GO CUBS TONIGHT! (I don't know what I'll do if they lose )

 

[Kdogg21]

Nice system play write ups.

good luck to you this sunday!!!

 

[Rudy]

A lot of these systems are reminiscent of the old Gambler's Mate software that I messed around with for a couple years about 8-10 years ago. Had its moments, but never good consistency. Is this that? Does, perchance, your GM moniker stand for you-know-what?

 

[GM]

Hey guys,

No, these aren't my systems for the most part. I've got 38 of them now, but there are only about 4 that I actually uncovered with my own research. The rest of them, I just took notes when I saw them posted on the web. Over the years I realized I had quite a few of these things, so I organized and numbered them.

Some of the older ones, in particular most of the ones numbered 1-16, I cannot vouch for their performance in recent years. In many cases I have no way to look them up to see how they've performed in the last year or so. So the record never changes on those. And those are the ones I have a little less confidence in, because over time systems often do stop working.

If, however, it says **updated** after the record, it means that I am adding to the records as we go along, and I am fairly certain that the record is accurate and up-to-date.

And no, I have no association with Gambler's Mate...never even heard of them actually. GM is simply my initials.

Cheers.

 

[GM]

updated - found another play that matches Detroit situation

 

[n2boca]

GL GM. The information you provide is so useful. Thank You

N2

 

[GM]

Thanks N2. Good luck to you too.

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

GM in System #36, St Louis haven't they scored over 90?

Thanks

 

[GM]

Hey Billy,

Yup, you're right, both GB and StL have scored 90+ in 3 weeks. I'll remove StL from the play list...obviously the system wouldn't apply in this situation.

Thanks for the heads up.

GM

 

[bej0101]

nice info

 

[3fingerstony]

A lot of indicators for Detroit - figures, I'm already down on Dal. I have strong plays on MIA MINN NO SEA as well.
GL today & thanks again for the info.

 

[wox11]

one service ~ northcoast is on dallad as gom im leaning towards detroit now:shrug:

gl all

 

[Billy Barooooooo]

No GM, thank you!!!!

Love your post.....


Thanks

BB

 

[GM]

Oh the carnage...

Oh the carnage...

Well, I hate to say it, but these plays got destroyed on Sunday, to the tune of 6-15. Sorry to anyone who followed them blindly. They were 20-11 for the two weeks leading up to this week.

The recap:
System #3: No plays (Car had to be the dog)
System #4: 0-1
System #5: 0-1
System #7: No plays (Car had to be the fav)
System #8: 0-1
System #9: Pending play on Oakland
System #14: No plays (Totals on Det & Hou were over 37; Line on Cinci dropped to Pk)
System #16: 1-0
System #18: 3-1, with a pending play on the MNF Under
System #19: No plays (Minn favored by more than 3)
System #19a: 0-1
System #20: 0-2
System #21: 0-1, with a pending play on Oakland
System #23: Pending play on Oakland
System #24: 0-2
System #33: 1-1
System #36: 1-2
System #37: 0-2

UGLY!!!!

Should be noted too...one system required Carolina to be the favorite, and another one required them to be a dog. I had the game going off as a Pick, which gets them off the hook for a system loss either way, but doesn't really seem right. So call it 6-16 if you want.

 

[djv]

A guy by the name of Gary Anderson sold these in abook about 20 years ago. I know because I have one and I am looking at the 1982 first addition. Called Winning Factors. I new I had this but took three days of going through piles of other chit to find it. It shal be fun to check these updated records you have here. My records start with 1977. Dam that was long time ago.

 

[djv]

Let me help with #36. This will cut down on your plays. But I have orginal this way. Play against any team that score 90 or more in last three games. If Favored on the road. From 1970 to 1983 it was 59 & 29. What has it been since then I dont know. I have more stuff like this I just forget about it some times. This rule as above as you see will give us a home dog vs a team about ready to find points hard to score. Any team that score 90 in three games has had everything go there way. The puplic is just nuts about them and the line in many case is just to high. Hope this help's some.
Im also going to look. But I believe there is another tightner to this. Play against a team on road as Fav that has scored 90 points in three games. With all three scores being in the 30's or above. In other words 31 one game, then 24, then 40. The 24 breaks the rule. Here again few plays but higher percentage.
I will find the dam thing some time. But if I remember it was close too just over 70%. And as system make sence.
Here is one similar to #20. Play on any team that failed to cover the spread 4 games in a row and are now a road dog. After pissing the puplic off for 4 weeks. These teams become bigger dogs then they should be. 1970 to 1983 it was 24 & 12 Not many plays each years but good results.

 

[djv]

One last one. Play underdog this week if they were a dog last week. Are a bigger dog then last week and won that game outright. 1970 to 1983. 101 & 61.
I hope you dont mind me adding these. And like I said I do not know what happen last 20 years. I started capping a diffrant way and just forgot about these. That and time for me was tight. I have ahunch I should have been following them.

 

[djv]

And one more oldie.
Play on any team that was fav by 7 or more last week and lost SU and is a dog this week. Must be a dog Pk is no play. 1974 to 1984 was 28 & 9. Dont know what happen last 20 years. Sorry. But this was a good one when you were looking for those 2/3 games a year to pop a extra unit at.