after seeing bama this year...i think BG and Toledo can beat them. They cant stop anybody. I overrated the dirty south.
NIU vs. Bowling Green
- Thread starter Ndfan
- Start date
if iam to hold a grudge against any team...it would certainly be Ball St. I havent won a single game betting on them or against them this year..
..............................................hellah10 said:
hellah10
You dont know BG and Toledo could beat Alabama .
We do know that NIU can beat Alabama in Alabama under that pressure packed stadium and come out with the win.
That win and the 7-0 can't be overlooked.
I love this late night capping.
I am getting sleepy now though.
night
KOD
...............................hellah10 said:
hellah10
nope you grudge NIU worse and deep down you know it.
now good night !
KOD
G-Man, in response to your Q, "unranked H Fav vs. Ranked
opp. " Have in my various papers one stating
*System- Unranked Team @ Home& Favored against a Ranked
Team, the Unranked team covers 80-85% of the time.
Don`t ask me where I got it but I just saw it L Wk.
Maybe some other MJ -Capper can expand on it too.
GL
opp. " Have in my various papers one stating
*System- Unranked Team @ Home& Favored against a Ranked
Team, the Unranked team covers 80-85% of the time.
Don`t ask me where I got it but I just saw it L Wk.
Maybe some other MJ -Capper can expand on it too.
GL
It would be interesting to see how well this system plays out in college football vs. college basketball but I would certainly believe that both percentages are well above 60% and profitable when played blindly in the long run.
As far as this game goes, you gotta like the home team here. . . just because NIU is 7-0 doesn't mean they will go 8-0! Also, BG played the defending national champs so I don't believe one loss looks that much worse than what NIU has done this season.
In addition, when looking at this line, remember that Vegas adjusts lines based on anticipated public perceptions. . . so where would Vegas move the line once the real line is determined: in BG's favor or NIU's? I think the answer is obvious as NIU has had the greater exposure espcially with the huge early win over Maryland.
In the end, the line value is clearly with BG. . . even at -4 which I was surprised to see as well. There will be a lot of suckers in Vegas this weekend putting their money on the NIU ML to make some big money based on their perfect record so far and all they're gonna do is lose it!
As far as this game goes, you gotta like the home team here. . . just because NIU is 7-0 doesn't mean they will go 8-0! Also, BG played the defending national champs so I don't believe one loss looks that much worse than what NIU has done this season.
In addition, when looking at this line, remember that Vegas adjusts lines based on anticipated public perceptions. . . so where would Vegas move the line once the real line is determined: in BG's favor or NIU's? I think the answer is obvious as NIU has had the greater exposure espcially with the huge early win over Maryland.
In the end, the line value is clearly with BG. . . even at -4 which I was surprised to see as well. There will be a lot of suckers in Vegas this weekend putting their money on the NIU ML to make some big money based on their perfect record so far and all they're gonna do is lose it!
Getting back to the ML play on NIU. . . it may be a good idea to watch the Bowling Green ML for this game at different books as you may get a very generous ML that looks inconsistent with the amount of points they are giving because of the wagers placed on the NIU ML. Hope that makes sense!
Again, this is going along with my theory that many will forgo the points in this one and play the NIU ML because they are undefeated and ranked #12 by sportswriters that don't know jack IMO!
Will be interesting to see how this money line and points move. The consensus I always use shows NIU as a slight public favorite at 53% but of course its very early.
Again, this is going along with my theory that many will forgo the points in this one and play the NIU ML because they are undefeated and ranked #12 by sportswriters that don't know jack IMO!
Will be interesting to see how this money line and points move. The consensus I always use shows NIU as a slight public favorite at 53% but of course its very early.
NdFan-Man,
Just looked at my post. Facts the same about Home teams as
Fav against Ranked teams. Anybody with more info. I say 80-85%
cover. What you say?
GL
Just looked at my post. Facts the same about Home teams as
Fav against Ranked teams. Anybody with more info. I say 80-85%
cover. What you say?
GL 