normally i stay away from monday nighters as theres rarely value in any of the numbers, but this is one im grabbing tonight:
1.5 units.....oakland (+3.5) (+105) over kansas city
ive offered scattered thoughts on this one in various threads throughout the week. heres a few things i think are worth noting.
id be remiss if i didnt clarify my post in someone elses thread (jgates' thread i believe). in his thread i mentioned that every square on the planet is hammering the undefeated chiefs. by no means did i imply that the only people betting kansas city are squares. im sure theres a handful of sharp guys in here who feel kansas city is the right side. my square comment refers to the recreational bettor who looks at this game and says "oakland too old. kansas city undefeated. chiefs rolllllll 42-10". i dont think any sharp bettor on kansas city thinks a 42-10 game is gonna happen. id assume those sharp guys on the chiefs are expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-17 or 27-17 or thereabouts. i just always get a chuckle out of some who expect obscene blowouts just by looking at a teams record.
its become very "chic" to label oakland as too old. that to me makes no sense. they were just in the super bowl 9 months ago and they were favored in that game. it just goes to show how fickle and impressionable the public is......drop a few games and youre too old. win back to back to back thrillers like the chiefs have....and youre the greatest thing since the advent of the 3-bar facemask on the football helmet. the raiders age is not their problem. their lack of discipline coupled with injuries is whats held them back. last weeks game in cleveland was an embarrassment. they had so many drive killing penalties it was mind-boggling.
i think the raiders have far too much pride to lay down at home for the chiefs tonight. were not talking about a home dog that has no talent. this is a team that has talent, but is just inexplicably shooting themselves in their collective feet this year.
its very rare for teams to get smashed in b2b national tv appearances in the nfl. broncos took it to oakland early this season. i just dont see the oakland vets allowing that to happen again, especially at home. that would be the coup de grace for the raiders if kc came in and spanked em. i just dont see it happening.
and it aint like kansas city is setting the world on fire. and its not because i dont give credit where credit is due. its that i gotta look objectively at this and put aside their 6-0 record.
the first three teams kansas city beat to get off to a 3-0 start this year are three of the lower echelon teams in the nfl. houston, pittsburgh, and san diego? gimmie a break. only pittsburgh deserves to be mentioned out of those 3, and thats pushing it.
the last 3 theyve beaten have required late 4th quarter rallies in each game.
chiefs backers will be quick to refute that by saying "well they won didnt they. the chiefs found a way to win"
yes, they did. they found a way to rally in all three games to win.
the problem is, theyre laying road chalk on monday night. they had enough trouble trying to rally for the SU win in those games. rallying for a win isnt gonna be enough. they gotta cover a spread. and they gotta do it on the road against a divison rival who is desperate.
at very worst, this game should remain within a touchdown. maybe the raiders wont be able to get it done, and perhaps the chiefs will pull off a 24-17 kind of win and ill lose my bet. and ill happiliy accept that knowing that a desperate team couldnt get it done and the chiefs continued to find a way to win and cover.
but it just puzzles me to see people posting "chiefs win by 30" and ridiculous stuff like that.
raiders for me.
also just kinda funny to hear guys around work and around the bars who i see every now and then talk about how they dont bet but ask what the line is so they can hammer the chiefs just one time because "its a lock of the year"
1.5 units.....oakland (+3.5) (+105) over kansas city
ive offered scattered thoughts on this one in various threads throughout the week. heres a few things i think are worth noting.
id be remiss if i didnt clarify my post in someone elses thread (jgates' thread i believe). in his thread i mentioned that every square on the planet is hammering the undefeated chiefs. by no means did i imply that the only people betting kansas city are squares. im sure theres a handful of sharp guys in here who feel kansas city is the right side. my square comment refers to the recreational bettor who looks at this game and says "oakland too old. kansas city undefeated. chiefs rolllllll 42-10". i dont think any sharp bettor on kansas city thinks a 42-10 game is gonna happen. id assume those sharp guys on the chiefs are expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-17 or 27-17 or thereabouts. i just always get a chuckle out of some who expect obscene blowouts just by looking at a teams record.
its become very "chic" to label oakland as too old. that to me makes no sense. they were just in the super bowl 9 months ago and they were favored in that game. it just goes to show how fickle and impressionable the public is......drop a few games and youre too old. win back to back to back thrillers like the chiefs have....and youre the greatest thing since the advent of the 3-bar facemask on the football helmet. the raiders age is not their problem. their lack of discipline coupled with injuries is whats held them back. last weeks game in cleveland was an embarrassment. they had so many drive killing penalties it was mind-boggling.
i think the raiders have far too much pride to lay down at home for the chiefs tonight. were not talking about a home dog that has no talent. this is a team that has talent, but is just inexplicably shooting themselves in their collective feet this year.
its very rare for teams to get smashed in b2b national tv appearances in the nfl. broncos took it to oakland early this season. i just dont see the oakland vets allowing that to happen again, especially at home. that would be the coup de grace for the raiders if kc came in and spanked em. i just dont see it happening.
and it aint like kansas city is setting the world on fire. and its not because i dont give credit where credit is due. its that i gotta look objectively at this and put aside their 6-0 record.
the first three teams kansas city beat to get off to a 3-0 start this year are three of the lower echelon teams in the nfl. houston, pittsburgh, and san diego? gimmie a break. only pittsburgh deserves to be mentioned out of those 3, and thats pushing it.
the last 3 theyve beaten have required late 4th quarter rallies in each game.
chiefs backers will be quick to refute that by saying "well they won didnt they. the chiefs found a way to win"
yes, they did. they found a way to rally in all three games to win.
the problem is, theyre laying road chalk on monday night. they had enough trouble trying to rally for the SU win in those games. rallying for a win isnt gonna be enough. they gotta cover a spread. and they gotta do it on the road against a divison rival who is desperate.
at very worst, this game should remain within a touchdown. maybe the raiders wont be able to get it done, and perhaps the chiefs will pull off a 24-17 kind of win and ill lose my bet. and ill happiliy accept that knowing that a desperate team couldnt get it done and the chiefs continued to find a way to win and cover.
but it just puzzles me to see people posting "chiefs win by 30" and ridiculous stuff like that.
raiders for me.
also just kinda funny to hear guys around work and around the bars who i see every now and then talk about how they dont bet but ask what the line is so they can hammer the chiefs just one time because "its a lock of the year"
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