plays for 10/22-10/25

[AR182]

before the season started i got into a conversation with a good friend about the benefits of buying points. he told me that over the course of a season it would be detremental to winning money.i disagreed with him because i thought that my winning percentage would increase significantly to offset the extra vig it would cost on my losses. being the stubborn person that i am, i am not ready to concede this point to my friend. i will give it a little more time before i discontinue this experiment.

opinions are always welcome on this topic.

season record:

college:
sides: 59-58-1 -33.56
totals:24-14-1 +3.76
-----------------------------
83-72-2 -29.80==53.5%

nfl:
sides:14-9 +17.32
totals:13-11-1 -4.84
-------------------------------
27-20-1 +12.48==57.44%


so far, for this week i have played these:

4*boston college
4*nebraska
4*bowling green
4*texas a&m

i will have writeups when i can confirm the lines.

good luck

 

[picasso]

I think it's a really bad idea to buy points in college football games. I suspect it gives the book a much bigger edge in the long run. When I get a chance, I hope to generate some numbers showing this (maybe someone else already has?). In the meantime, a couple things to consider:

1. If it was to the player's advantage to buy points, would the book allow it? I think not.

2. For a -110 money line, the break-even percentage is 52.38%. Assuming 10 cents for every half point one buys, the break-even percentages become:

0.5: 54.5% (-120 ML)
1.0: 56.5% (-130)
1.5: 58.3% (-140)
2.0: 60.0% (-150)
2.5: 61.5% (-160)
3.0: 63.0% (-170)

It's easy to remember the rare game in which buying points made the difference. But if you look at all the games in which the extra points made no difference, I suspect the results (over a reasonable sample size) will show that a lot of money is being wasted.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL AR! Hope you have a solid weekend.

HORNS

 

[AR182]

thanks horns.

picasso thanks for responding to the issue of buying points. how did you determine the % in point #2 ? any other info that you might have will be helpful.

good luck

 

[picasso]

thanks horns.

picasso thanks for responding to the issue of buying points. how did you determine the % in point #2 ? any other info that you might have will be helpful.

good luck

For the standard -110 money line, it takes 11 wins for every 10 losses to break even (i.e., using a $100 unit, 100*11 = 110*10). So, that translates into 11 wins out of 21 games. 11/21 = .5238 or 52.38%.

-120 means you need 12 wins for every 10 losses. 12/22 = .545 or 54.5%.

And so on...

 

[AR182]

picasso,

i think that i'm finally convinced that you can't win by buying points. i may do it, however, with my larger plays. again, thanks for your input.

 

[releasedahounds]

If the game has the potential to be so close that you need to buy half-points, the question you gotta be asking yourself is whether or not you should be betting it at all!!!??!?!?

Selling points is like the bookie selling you alien-robot insurance (from Saturday Night Live). Every gambler has the FEAR in the back of his mind that he will have picked the "right side" only to eat a bad loss by half a point. That FEAR is what sells the points every time. No gambler has ever had a game so thoroughly handicapped as to know that while this bet is a winner, there is a scenario worth betting money on that will make it a loser or a push if the half point is not purchased. It is a fear driven house edge every time, just like insurance in Blackjack!

While the half-point loss is a heartbreaker, it is a rare bird and should not be feared. Equally rare is the half-point win after actually buying the hook.

In the long run, it is a losing proposition every time and should be avoided!!

dahounds

 

[releasedahounds]

AR,

look at your last post, while you admit it is a losing proposition, you still have the FEAR of losing your "larger plays" and therefore are trying to buy points to insulate them when it really does nothing but eat into your profits and expose you to larger losses than you would have likely experienced anyways if these big bets were to lose.

hounds

 

[AR182]

hounds,

great points.

i played a couple of games already, by buying points. these will definately be my last. thanks alot, it's greatly appreciated.

good luck

 

[AR182]

4*texas a & m+8(-150)---the last two games that they played, ok. st. has had 2 thrilling wins over k. st. & tex. tech, but surrendered 83 total points in those games, & have okla. next week. this is osu's first road game vs. big 12 teams this year & will be missing 2 defensive starters for this game. tex. a&m is 6-1 ats at home with revenge & 11-3 ats in it's last 14 as a home dog. franchione is 29-13 ats vs. teams off a su/ats win, including 17-6 ats at home. according to stat foxes power ratings of foes these teams have faced, the teams ok. st. faced have a power rating of 23.9, while a& m's foes have a power rating of 31.3. i think ok st. is in a tough situation & feel that a&m will cover the spread, with a possible upset not out of the question. since i think i am in the minority in this game, i will wait to see if the line goes in my favor.

4*nebraska-21(-150)---iowa st. has allowed 145 points in their last 3 big 12 games(okla., tex. tech, & tex.), losing by an average score of 48-16.they were out gained in those games, 1966-866 in yardage, that's being out gained by 367 yards per game. nebraska is 15-2-1 ats when they score more than 42 points. iowa st. is ranked #78 in the country in total offense & #108 in the country in total defense. nebraska is only ranked # 69 in total off., but #2 in total def. neb. has allowed an average of 7 pts. per game at home & is +14 in take aways. these figures tell me that neb. will be playing with a shortened field that will give them plenty of scoring chances. iowa st. beat neb.su last year & neb. is 13-3 ats in their last 16 su revenge wins. this game should be a route.


good luck

 

[dawgball]

I almost made a comment to you earlier in the season, but I did not want to come off as a know it all. I hate to see people buying points. I think it may be the worst bet in sports gambling.

I think hounds said it right when you only remember the games that the extra points would have mattered.

This leads my thinking into teasers which I also think is a bad bet. Not as bad as buying points, but a bad bet none the less.

Good luck this weekend. I would like to see any numbers against your past plays to show the amount of money, whether positive or negative, that has been affected by buying the points.

 

[pt1gard]

hey AR

hey AR

the aggie game stuck out immediately to me on sunday night, then i went to various boards and saw EVERYONE on Pokes ... i posted aggies in MC thread as early like that night ... this is also OK st only 2nd game on grass .. aggies best WR out but not so sure how much that hurts, it'll depend in McNeal can control the LOS on decisions and runs and if Kyle Field harrasses Poke OFF ... aggies have faced every type of offense Imaginable and gone to tuff environs

gl, gregg

 

[ELVIS]

for what it's worth. i always buy 1/2 points. to me 3-1/2 or 71/2 down is a no brainer if you like the favorite. the juice is tough, but losing on a 1/2 is one of the worst feelings in the world.jmo

 

[AR182]

gregg,

i think this is a good situation for a&m.


dawgball,

me buying points was only an experiment. as i previously stated, i had a discussion with my friend about the benefits of buying points. i am very stubborn sometimes & i thought that it may help me increase my winning %. so far it hasn't & the posts by picasso, hounds & yourself verified what my friend told me,k which i also knew. during the beginning of the year i bought points on almost every game & i have won at least 1 game per week because of buying points. a few weeks ago i won about $1500 on two games that i won by buying points. i am pretty busy now to go over all of the past games, but the first chance i get i will review my past wages & will post the results. but if you look at my won-lost record & compare it with the units, it looks like i am losing by buying points.
dawgball, i posted to you & you to me in the past year or so in the general forum & i have always found you to be courteous to me & others. you are always welcome to comment on anything that i post & in fact i encourage it for you & others to comment on my posts.

elvis,

i agree with you on buying points on certain lines. i have bet the 4 games that i listed above by buying points. i am just waiting to see what way the lines go before i post them.

thanks to everyone by posting on this & good luck

 

[JEFF]

Selling points is like the bookie selling you alien-robot insurance (from Saturday Night Live). Every gambler has the FEAR in the back of his mind that he will have picked the "right side" only to eat a bad loss by half a point. That FEAR is what sells the points every time. No gambler has ever had a game so thoroughly handicapped as to know that while this bet is a winner, there is a scenario worth betting money on that will make it a loser or a push if the half point is not purchased. It is a fear driven house edge every time, just like insurance in Blackjack!

While the half-point loss is a heartbreaker, it is a rare bird and should not be feared. Equally rare is the half-point win after actually buying the hook.

Extremely well-said, hounds.

I don't buy points often, only in some cases where I have a big bet and usually when the spread is 3.5 and I'm on the fave. And I have a very hard time recounting instances where I've gotten the win/push because of the 1/2 point. They'll kill you with all that juice in the long haul, might as well go with your gut and risk the occasional close loss.

Gl this weekend AR.

 

[mw]

A&M and Nebraska look good to me. Good luck.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Like the two you added. Really like A&M!

HORNS

 

[AR182]

thanks for the well wishes, guys.

here is a system that i just read on the ok. st./tex.a&m game:

play against an away favorite of 7-9.5 points after playing 3 straight home games.

since 1985 ats record is 25-6-1==80.6%

play against okla. st., play on tex. a&m.


good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

as you know

as you know

i`m with you on a+m.......i`m more of a situational player rather than a long term trend guy,but,i`m very glad that some strong trends fall in our favor....

g.l.,bud.

 

[jbbg]

a&m?

a&m?

AR,

I think you make a good point about playing against OSU, but A&M is horrible. Other than the Baylor game (where I played Baylor) they have been smoked by everyone.

Lost to:

Tex Tech 59-28
Nebraska 48-12 (horrible offense put up 48 pts)
Pittsburgh 37-26 (at home)

Beat:

Ark St. 26-11 (at home, ASU is terrible)
Utah 28-26 (Utah is pretty good, but only 2 pts.)

And, don't forget about that VA Tech game, where they allowed VT to run up the score at the end of the game.

OSU can score quickly, much like Tex Tech. I don't see A&M covering a 7 point spread. OSU might put up 60 pts. Don't think A&M's offense will be able to hang.