saturday 10/25/03 college football plays......

[gman2]

4 unit
0-1 (-4.4 units)

2 unit
8-3 (+9.9 units)

1 unit
13-15 (-1.09 units)

last two weeks have been piss poor for me.
went with these for saturday afternoon -- should be a solid week to bounce back.

2 unit.....texas a+m over okie state (split) (+6) (moneyline +219)
2 unit.....bowling green (-3.5) (+101) over niu (from pinnacle)
1 unit.....ball state (+12.5) over toledo
1 unit.....wisconsin/northwestern over 51.5

add: 1.5 units....ohio state 2h under 21 (-118) (pretty strong halftime play for me)

add: 1 unit....bowling green 2h moneyline (+140) (reasoning below)

add: 1 unit....utep 2h (+13.5) (+110) (olympic)

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL gman this week! Hope you get back on track!

HORNS

 

[gman2]

=====================================
bowling green (-3.5) (+101) over northern illinois
=====================================
did a lot of writing on this one earlier in the week on some other threads (NDfan's "NIU vs. Bowling Green" thread in particular). not a whole lot more i can add that myself, hellah, and some others havent already addressed. just feel like bowling green gets it done at home in payback style from last year. last october, bowling green went up to dekalb ranked in the top 25 and niu beat em outright and the crowd played an enormous factor in that one. falcons sold this one out earlier this week -- marking the first sellout for bowling green since toledo in 1983. read an interesting article on bgsu players and coaches encouraging a rowdy crowd like niu provided their huskies in their upset last year. falcons players said they were greatly affected (in an adverse way) by the northern illinois crowd last year. will post the article once i find it. players and coaches really shouldnt have any trouble recruiting a rowdy crowd with the game being nationally televised and with espn gameday coming to that campus.

fundamentally, just feel like bowling green is a little deeper, playing with revenge in a similar spot to last year, and i think the falcons offense will be able to generate more offense than will the niu attack. bgsu stronger in the kicking game, and that cant be understated given the way the wind can affect a game in that stadium.

 

[gman2]

===============================
ball state (+12.5) over toledo
===============================
maybe im nuts, but i dont think ball states performance last week vs miami was consistent with the type of team they are this year. kinda think last weeks debacle was an abberation. miami clearly one of the elite mac programs, but for ball state to come out and lay that kind of egg-- im still in shock and scratching my head. miami certainly dominated every facet of the game, but ball state made some uncharacteristic turnovers last week so i guess ill give them a reprieve. coming into that game, ball state had turned the ball over just one time the entire season. and of course, as fate would have it, as soon as i bought into them as a team that takes care of the ball , miami returns an interception 65 yards to the house for a 7-0 just 1:32 seconds into that game. ball state just never recovered from that. to make it worse, miami took ANOTHER interception to the house (64 yards) with just 1:00 to go before halftime. ill give the cards another shot here to cash for me. toledo playing real well lately, but theyre in the midst of a real "boring" month. theyre coming off wins over mac mutants eastern michigan and central michigan, and then have ball state this week and buffalo next week. not sure if theyre gonna be as sharp as they normally would. easy for them to get complacent and get lulled into a dogfight in this game. we'll see how it goes. if ball state cant get it done here, ill write these knuckleheads off for the rest of the year. to me, theyre much better than they showed last week, and i think theyre worth my money here.

 

[gman2]

=============================================
texas a+m (+6)/moneyline (+219) over oklahoma state
=============================================
finally grabbed the line i was looking for. really no excuse for aggies not to be prepared to play and get at least the cover, hopefully the straight up win. the "double-sandwich" (my personal addition to the handicapping lexicon) applies here. cowboys coming off two huge games vs ranked opponents the last two weeks (wins over kansas state and texas tech), and have their biggest game of the season next week (at rival and #1 oklahoma) followed by a trip to texas. 4 ranked opponents in 5 weeks.......with a road trip to texas a+m lodged directly in between those four huge games. truly the quintessence of a letdown sandwich spot. doesnt hurt that the pokes are coming off a long, down-to-the-wire shootout last week vs pass happy texas tech. aside from the scheduling spot, tough to lay road points with any team who has given up 83 points the last two weeks. franchione's simply gotta have his guys prepared here. this is a very winnable game vs a top 25 opponent. aggies have performed pretty well at home this year, albeit vs some inferior opponents. but still feel a+m gets it done. that offense can generate some points vs the cowboys defense that is more than willing to give em up.

 

[xerri]

Really like that A&M play but gonna wait and see if I can get a better line on the Aggies. Also like BG and the Wisconsin over. GL with the plays this week and thanks for the info.

 

[hellah10]

Great MAC Story regarding the BCS

 

[King Cobra]

Please do a favor to the poor children and donate whatever funds you are going to bet on Texas AM and give them to a local childrens fund in your city. The Aggies are all banged up after playing Neb, you should check out their website.

 

[gman2]

article re: bgsu/niu crowd from last year:
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031022/SPORTS03/110220118

article re: last years matchup/implications:
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031021/SPORTS03/110210086

 

[King Cobra]

While I definitly agree with your bottom play on Wisky, I am a little concerned with Sorgi out if Wisky will run the ball 85% of the time and this could in turn shorten the game. I had this as a over myself and will play it, NW defense is paper thin.

 

[buddy]

You weren't the only one on BALL STATE last week.

(To the Linesmaker)
"Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me."

We'll see.

BALL STATE +12' over Toledo

 

[gman2]

===================================
northwestern/wisconsin over 51.5
===================================
both teams excel in the area where their opponent appears to be weakest. wisconsin really hammers the ball on the ground and northwestern is super soft against the run (bottom 20 in the nation against the run). wildcats just not a physical team and wisky should be able to chunk away yards. on the flip side, northwestern certainly doesnt have blue-chip talent, but they do run the same kind of offense that purdue had success with against wisconin last saturday, and thats the shotgun spread offense with the short controlled passing game and occasional running back draw and quarterback draw. obviously dont expect northwestern's basanez to have quite the success that purdue's orton had last week; however i do expect the cats to attack wisky the same way and be able to generate some offense and some points. only real hesitation in this one is the whole sorgi/ schabert situation. with sorgi being out, wisky game plan might be really "dumbed down" to accomodate the inexperienced junior quarterback. regardless, i think wisky will be able to move the ball effectively with a simple gameplan of "dive left....dive right...trap left.. trap right". wildcats have not exactly been stingy at home this year either-- allowing the opposition to drop 22, 44, and 42 points on 'em. cats might be able to hang within that spread number but i think it cracks the 51.5 point total with a 33-25 kind of game.

 

[gman2]

just a heads up ont he bowling green weather for those playing the game or the total. rain overnight. intermittent rain throughout the morning. likely will clear for gametime, but overcast expected. wind, as of now, is managable, but that could change in an instant

 

[gman2]

adding: 1.5 units (strong halftime play) ohio state under 21 (-118)
indiana getting nothing done offensively. buckeyes likely content to just pound the ball in the 2h and not put the ball in the air. 31-0 final wouldnt surprise me. carter being out takes away an ohio state receiving option. just see this being a real real boring 2h.

 

[Nole]

Nice call on 2nd half OSU gman. Whew! 1 point.

nole

 

[hellah10]

nice call on Ball St

 

[gman2]

add: 1 unit.....bowling green 2h moneyline (+140)

northern illinois clearly out of their element with the passing game. niu's strength is establishing the run. if they were down 10-14, they could still run the ball and stay in the game. down 21, theyre gonna be passing damn near every down and haldi does not look good. bgsu defensive backs playing well. falcons pissed away some scoring chances in the 1h and theyre still up 21. with this being a payback game for bowling green, i dont see brandon and company letting up. theyll bury niu if need be.

 

[hellah10]

i dont know about you gman..

but win or lose (in miami's game) - I LOVE Miami hosting BG next weekend in Oxford. I think Big Ben is gonna rip that defense into little pieces.

 

[gman2]

i initially said the same thing (miami would be a play over bgsu) because falcons might be overvalued and be a little flat coming off this game.

after looking at the schedule, that game is in TWO weeks. bgsu has a bye next week. i dont know if miami is off as well or not.

that takes any "letdown" or "flat" approach out of the capping. falcons will be well prepared and have more than enough time to refocus.

right now, i think miami will be a 3 point chalk against bowling green in two weeks.

as of now, i pass. that bye week fu/cks some pro-miami angles

 

[hellah10]

miami is off too

heal up some injuries on the D