plays for 10/22-10/25
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks for the well wishes king cobra.
jbbg,
thanks for your post. you make some good points. but, imo, sports is not always about who is better. sometimes there are situations where the better team is vulnerable because it is in a flat spot. after 2 emotional wins at home & playing their biggest rivals next week, i think this is a flat spot for ok. st. i may be wrong, but i am willing to bet my money on this situation.
good luck, except if you play ok. st.(lol).
jbbg,
thanks for your post. you make some good points. but, imo, sports is not always about who is better. sometimes there are situations where the better team is vulnerable because it is in a flat spot. after 2 emotional wins at home & playing their biggest rivals next week, i think this is a flat spot for ok. st. i may be wrong, but i am willing to bet my money on this situation.
good luck, except if you play ok. st.(lol).
4*boston college-2.5(-150)--nd is coming off a game vs. usc last week & has fla. st. next week.bc is 14-1 ats the next week following a loss in their last 15 & have won 14 now su after a loss, including last years win over nd. bc is also 17-3 ats in home games when not laying more than 23 points. nd is 2-9 ats in last 11 games.bc rushes for 190 yds. per game, while nd rushes for 138 yds. per game. bc passes for 212 yds. per game, while nd passes for 156 yds. per game. bc off., at home averages about 31 pts. per game while giving up about 21 pts. per game. nd. offense averages about 14 points per game, while their def. gives up about 25 points a game, & have given up at least 3 td's in 5 of their 6 games. to break it down even further, this game, imo, will come down to nd's. vanilla offense( average 4.1 yppl to teams that allow 4.5 yppl on defense) being able to move the ball against bc's defense(allow 4.7 yppl this season to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense). my money says no & just because a team is seeking revenge from last years loss doesn't necessarily mean that they will get it.
4*bowling green-2(-150)--everyone is pointing to n. ill. win vs. maryland as the barometer to how good n. ill. is. but that game was played at n.ill. & was on espn on a thursday evening. i'm more impressed with bg's win over one of the top teams in the country, when they beat purdue on the road, & then 2 weeks later they played ohio st. very tough at ohio st. bg has won 10 straight at home, gained season high yardage against every opponent this year. ni is a bit banged up on defense by losing their def. leader duffy at linebacker.
an angle that supports this play: teams that are unbeaten at 7-0 or better are just 43% on the road & only 44-74-3 ats(37%) if the opponent is coming off a win.
good luck
4*bowling green-2(-150)--everyone is pointing to n. ill. win vs. maryland as the barometer to how good n. ill. is. but that game was played at n.ill. & was on espn on a thursday evening. i'm more impressed with bg's win over one of the top teams in the country, when they beat purdue on the road, & then 2 weeks later they played ohio st. very tough at ohio st. bg has won 10 straight at home, gained season high yardage against every opponent this year. ni is a bit banged up on defense by losing their def. leader duffy at linebacker.
an angle that supports this play: teams that are unbeaten at 7-0 or better are just 43% on the road & only 44-74-3 ats(37%) if the opponent is coming off a win.
good luck
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take the a+m play a step further
take the a+m play a step further
okie st has oklahoma next.....and then texas immediately after oklahoma....
it`s very plausible to believe that after a couple shoot-outs(kansas st and tx tech) and 2 big games on deck,that the okie st focus may be a little skewed....
okie st has been fortunate to play practically all their reasonably tough games at home.....except for the nebraska loss..
only 2 road games...a loss at nebraska and an easy win over smu....a very favorable schedule....
tx a+m has a real shot....if they keep the turnovers to a minimum...
also,though i`m not much of a totals player,i like over 61 here....
take the a+m play a step further
okie st has oklahoma next.....and then texas immediately after oklahoma....
it`s very plausible to believe that after a couple shoot-outs(kansas st and tx tech) and 2 big games on deck,that the okie st focus may be a little skewed....
okie st has been fortunate to play practically all their reasonably tough games at home.....except for the nebraska loss..
only 2 road games...a loss at nebraska and an easy win over smu....a very favorable schedule....
tx a+m has a real shot....if they keep the turnovers to a minimum...
also,though i`m not much of a totals player,i like over 61 here....
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AR182 - great information and plays as usual! I think you've sold me on A&M as I've been on the fence with them all week. I've already taken the Under in the game and the trend of teams playing 3 straight HG is a key angle. Have you looked at it this year in terms of any teams which meet the criteria so far this season? I'd be interested to see how it has played out with an incident rate of less than twice a year on average. Thanks for the write-up and best of luck this weekend.
buying points. works for me. saved my ass all year. more so in nfl than college. i think you need to pick your spots. i play a ton of games each week and buy off and on to key numbers only. why play a dog getting 2.5? thats plain stupid, in my opinion. either buy it to 3, or play moneyline. i'll never lay 3.5 either. how many games land on 3? more so in nfl. i always buy to 7 when getting 6/6.5. i LOVE buying points!!
adding these all for 2*:
stanford+11.5(-128)
byu+4.5(-128)
troy st.+23(-120)
ark. st.+11(-148)
ullaf.+4(-130)
good luck
stanford+11.5(-128)
byu+4.5(-128)
troy st.+23(-120)
ark. st.+11(-148)
ullaf.+4(-130)
good luck
i am making byu my best bet today & it becomes a 10*:
10*byu+4.5(-128)--this will be byu's qb 2nd start since coming back from injury & should have his rustiness out of him in this game.neither byu or unlv have below average offenses, but imo byu's is better now with berry at qb plus has an edge on special teams. unlv's qb has completed fewer than 50% of his passes in 4 out of 5 games & unlv has been outgained by an average of 40 yds. per game.
unlv has lost by 17 & 18 point margins to air force & utah. conference home favorites are not good bets if they lost & failed to cover in each of their last 2 games & are facing a road team that is also on a losing streak. this angle is 13-47 ats (21.6%) & has lost 9 straight.
unlv is 5-17 ats when hosting conference opponents, including 1-10 ats if they are a dog of 3 points or less or favored.
byu is 13-2 ats on the road with revenge.
i don't think that i will nedd it, but i will take the points with a team who i think is better.
2*under 52.5(-138)ucla/ariz. st.
good luck
10*byu+4.5(-128)--this will be byu's qb 2nd start since coming back from injury & should have his rustiness out of him in this game.neither byu or unlv have below average offenses, but imo byu's is better now with berry at qb plus has an edge on special teams. unlv's qb has completed fewer than 50% of his passes in 4 out of 5 games & unlv has been outgained by an average of 40 yds. per game.
unlv has lost by 17 & 18 point margins to air force & utah. conference home favorites are not good bets if they lost & failed to cover in each of their last 2 games & are facing a road team that is also on a losing streak. this angle is 13-47 ats (21.6%) & has lost 9 straight.
unlv is 5-17 ats when hosting conference opponents, including 1-10 ats if they are a dog of 3 points or less or favored.
byu is 13-2 ats on the road with revenge.
i don't think that i will nedd it, but i will take the points with a team who i think is better.
2*under 52.5(-138)ucla/ariz. st.
good luck
