Betting System

[StevieD]

Inspired by Nicks remarks I figured I may as well throw this one out for ridicule. It is becoming apparent to me that very few of us can make money in the long run handicapping sporting events. So I have been trying this system out for fun. I have made a little money with it and thought I would post it here and hear any and all comments.
What I have been doing is playing a three game parlay. The first game must end before the second game begins, and the second must end before the third begins. The three teams making up the parlay are all heavy favorites. I hedge two games of the parlay.
An example is I have the Red Sox with Pedro pitching with say Ohio State and the Patriots. All teams are heavy faves and I play the parlay on the money lines.
I make no additional bet against Pedro but if he wins I play the opposite of Ohio State. If Ohio State loses I will have made a small profit. If Ohio State wins I play the opposite of the Patriots with a bet big enough to ensure a profit no matter which team wins.
What it seems to me is that I have made a bet on a heavy favorite into an even money bet, thereby eliminating the vig. It seems to be working. The bet is purly a math play.
Okay bash away!

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Stevie I read a book many years ago that was somewhat on same theory. It was on 4 team parlays where each finished before the next. Then followed with hedges as it progressed.
Was quite interesting but I never tried it. Will be curious to see how you do. If you hit 3 teamer letting it ride on each wager it will have better return than straight parlay also,which is big plus.

Just remembered name of book. "How to win $100,000 betting football" or something close to that.

 

[ryson]

Mr. Nolan Dalla has a very intersting write up on CORRELATED PARLAYS and CORRELATED TEASERS, may be of some help in your method.
http://www.madjacksports.com/nolan/article1012.shtml

 

[StevieD]

Thanks for the lead DTB I will have to dig that book up.
Ryson, you point to a very valuable piece of writing by Nolan but that deals with trying to win a parlay bet. What I am trying to do is to bet on an overwhelming favorite, and use the parlay as a way of getting an even money, or better payoff, guaranteed, as long as the favorite wins.

 

[auspice]

to StevieD

...."I make no additional bet against Pedro".... that's the mathmatical key. If Pedro doesn't win, you're in sh#tsville. That part of your equation kills your scapling endeavor. Your (sometimes) first team losing will make this a losing long term scalping proposition. (Hope I'm understanding your question right)

 

[S-Love]

I use a variant of your system except I only make sure my last part of the parlay is timed so as to as to allow the ability to hedge- and then I always try to have that last play be some decent chalk so the hedge can be a pointspread dog leaving ample space for a middle.

 

[Pujo21]

YES very interesting:


I do that with " If and Reverses "--such as 1:00 NFL and 4:00 NFL.The reason I use an " If and Reverse" as oppose to a parlay is because you get a 4-1 payoff.

Baesball: early game with late game -if and reverse .

And i asked Nolan Dalla a couple a years ago about a middle on 10 point teasers.. for instance 2 1:00 NFLs with a late 4:00 or 8:00 NFL game. Looking for the middle on the late games. He gave some great advice..for instance look for a late game weather condition in the late game and/or a heated rivalry also to help obtain a good hedge for profit and/or a middle.

good Luck all !

 

[djv]

They made this even more easy to try a few years back. With Football only. You can start Saturday thru Monday. I have tried this few times just with pro FB. A 1, oclock game a 3, oclock if I like one of those. If not Sunday night and a Monday. This is what I call the no stress have plenty of time to descide what to do. The other is. Three or two college games with a Sunday pro game. With M L avaliable, or just useing all line plays. Some work some dont. But in long run if you get first team home yor chance of at least a small proffit are higher. By the way the 3 team parlay is the one the books don't like much. They hope to suck you in to the 4 and up parlays. I have not tried this for some time so will be intersted in way you are approching this and how it works.