Sunday wheeling...part deux

Ice Picks

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Had a nice week last week with a 6.5 point teaser wheel on the Titans at Carolina...

This week a couple of plays strike me as a nice "HUB" for another wheel...

It is tempting to take Tampa to bounce back from the loss at San Francisco - but they are banged up and missing several key players...also the Titans are a very strong team and should handle the Jaguars on the road...the Jets looked a bit better last week, and managed a win, but it was against the Texans...

HUB: This week I am taking the New Orleans +4.5 at home to Carolina - this line started at -1 and has gone to -2...and New Orleans lost about 3 weeks ago to the Panthers....

I am going again with only a limited number of picks this week on the SAINTS +4.5 hub...

1. New England + 1.5
2. Ravens/Broncos Under 43.5
3. Bengals +9.5
4. Bears +3.5
5. Titans +2
6. Vikings +.5
7. Giants +12.5
8. 49ers [pick] - 2 units
9. Jets +9.5 - 2 units
10. BUFFALO BILLS +12.5 - 3 units

As I was posting these plays at BET365, the line changed on New Orleans for the last two plays, so I am only getting NO+4 on the Jets, and the Bills dropped half a point also...this shows that some money is coming in on those games...


TEASER WHEEL THEORY:

The true idea of the "Teaser Wheel" - which is definitely not for the faint of heart, is now that you have selected the "HUB", you place a bet on ALL THE SIDES in every game...

For instance, you would have:

1. Bills +13 and New England +1.5
2. Bills +13 and Browns + 11.5 [plus similar bets on the remaining games]

If there is 14 games you would have - under this theory - 26 bets - two on each game except the HUB game. You can also tease the HUB game, but the following is based on NO teaser on the HUB game:which is only one bet.

Of the 26 bets you are thus assured of 13 [50%] winners...not that great until you figure that some of the games will be close games - certainly within the 13 points given in a 6.5 point teaser...

If all games are blow-outs, you would lose the juice on all the 13 losing bets. But in a normal week at least a few games are tight, and OT is becoming very common...so if 5 of the 13 games are say within 10 points, you have a record of 18-13...

Of course, it the HUB game loses, you are out 26 bets...I am working on the mathemetics of doing a "Super Teaser Wheel", where you tease and WHEEL BOTH sides of your "HUB" game, thus assuring you of at least a 50% winning record, and if the HUB game beats the teaser, you will have a very profitable day indeed - you obviously need to pick a game which would be a tightly contested contest...

COMING - can the "Teaser Wheel" be used successfully with Over/Unders....


Good luck...IP
 

Ice Picks

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three way teaser...

three way teaser...

10 points

Ravens Under 47
Tampa +3.5
New Orleans +8


6.5 points

Titans +2
SF -.5
Bills +13
 

Ice Picks

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WHEEL RECAP...

WHEEL RECAP...

The Saints covered the HUB game +4.5, but I was disappointed they lost the game...they play at TB week and last year handed the Bucs two defeats...now that game will not be as meaningful

1. New England [+1.0]
2. Ravens/Broncos Under [+1.0] - this should have been a 2 or 3 unit pick...
3. Bengals +9 [+1.0]
4. Bears [+1.0]
5. Titans [+1.0]
6. Vikings +.5 [-1.25]
7. Giants +12.5 [+1.0]
8. 49ers [pick] - 2 units [-2.5]
9. Jets +9.5 - 2 units [+2.0]
10. BUFFALO BILLS +12.5 - [-3.75] :mad: The Bills Offensiive coordinator should be fired...

Total was still +.5 units.

[If I had played one unit per game, as the theory states, would have been +4.25 on the 10 plays here]

[If playing the full slate, with Miami/San Dieg yet to play, I would have 18 wins and 7 losses [Pitt, Dallas, Jax, Buff, Denver, Detroit, Minny, and SF] for +9.25 units. I will take that every week...
 

Ice Picks

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Other plays recap...

Other plays recap...

Won easily on the 10 point teaser, but lost the 6.5 pointer when the BILLS sucked at KC, an SF lost at AZ after a dominating performance last week against TB...

I did make-up some ground on 3 unposted props in the KC/BILLS game...3-0 [Travis to get more yardage than Priest, Gonzalez to get 4 or more catches, and Bledsoe under 248.5 yards]

Next week I foresee the Bengals playing at Arizona to be a breakout game for one of these teams...and will wait to see early lines, but feel that the Bengals will be getting some points...They have played everyone tough this year, and MArvin Lewis should get some consideration for Coach of the year if the success continues...

IP
 
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