Newsletters 10/31-11/3

[Jaxx]

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY PLAYS
1* TEXAS over Nebraska
1* MINNESOTA over Indiana
2* SO CALIFORNIA over Washington St
3* BOISE STATE over Brigham Young
4* IOWA over Illinois
4* COLORADO STATE over Wyoming
5* NAVY over Tulane
5* TEXAS TECH over Colorado

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
2* DALLAS over Washington
3* NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay
4* PITTSBURGH over Seattle
4* HOUSTON over Carolina
5* NEW YORK JETS over NY Giants

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF TOP RATED SELECTIONS

TEXAS 41 - Nebraska 17 - (3:30) -- Horns averaging 279 RYs vs Rice, Tulane, IowaSt, & Baylor, but just 122 vs decent defenses, and "Black Shirts" certainly quality as a decent "D". But Nebraska allowed 452 yds in its last RG,& needed 2 TDs off blocked punts for narrow cover vs fast-dying IowaSt. Lay the spot.

MINNESOTA (HC) 55 - Indiana 10 - (12:00) -- Can this be anything else? Minny came in as our top phone play LW, with 338 RY, 237 PY display vs Illinois, & should duplicate it with some to spare vs Indy "D", which has allowed >30 pts in all lined affairs to date. No way Hoosiers approach containment of this offense.

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (HC) 44 - Washington State 17 - (7:00) -- Payback time for the Trojans, who are approaching LY's overwhelming unit. In their last 3 games, they've averaged 210 RYs & 327 PYs, with Leinhart in off 351 PY, 4 TD showing vs Washington. Sixth-rated Coogs have played Troy tight, & that includes LY's upset. But Kegel in off 5 INT showing, & still can't run the ball.

DALLAS 30 - Washington 13 - (1:00) -- Well, the 'Boys did as expected LW, in lopsided loss at Tampa. Check only 9 FDs, 178 yds, & a 68 RY deficit. We've been documenting the weekly RY edges of Dallas: 51, 54, 136, 65, & 51 in 5 of previous 6, before LW. We fully expect a return to that dominating form here, as the Skins have seen their earlier quality rushing game turn to ashes of late, topped by allowing 196 overland yds to a Buffalo squad which ranked dead last in overland production. Wash has been outscored 59-20 in its last 2 games, & is a horrid 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games with the 'Boys. You know that Parcells will have his squad ready for this important meeting.

TAMPA BAY 23 - New Orleans 17 - (1:00) -- The Bucs continue to be a fine play off a loss. Their shutout of Dallas' smoking offense was impressive, as they held the Cowboys to only 9 FDs, & 178 TYs. Dominated overland, with Pittman recording 113 RYs. But putting 2 wins together has thus far been an impossibility for Tampa. As a matter of fact the Bucs have lost outright after each win. Can the Saints take advantage? Well, a year ago, they won in OT on this field, & could certainly duplicate it. McAllister has topped 100 RYs the past 5 games, & only the TO prevented a current 3-game Saint run. New Orleans is 10-3 ATS on the Nov road off SU loss. We'll call the upset.

 

[Jaxx]

THE RED SHEET

RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

TOLEDO 63 - Buffalo 13 - (7:00 EST) -- Line opened at Toledo minus 27?, and is now minus 26. The Rockets let us down big time a week ago, in their flat showing at Ball St. Despite that shocker, Toledo is still in the thick of the MAC West race, with important showdowns againstNorthern Illinois, Western Michigan, & Bowling Green on the horizon. And with next week's bye, a look ahead to November 8 is moot. Toledo has averaged 44 ppg in its last 5 home games, & that includes that upset of Pittsburgh. Buffalo presents the perfect foe for a quick return to respectability, as the Bulls are in off snapping their 18-game SU slide. But despite their upset of Ohio, they still rank as the 2nd worst offensive team in the nation, as well as the 112th defensive squad. The Rockets take out their frustrations.
RATING: TOLEDO 89

MINNESOTA 58 - Indiana 10 - (2:05) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 28, and is still minus 28. As you can see, this week's Superior Plays are laying plenty of wood, but as anyone who is even a casual student of the line knows, there is no simple rule for winning & losing, as minuscule dogs or chalks own no advantage over huge favs or pups. The Gophers were among the elites, before collapsing in the final quarter in their eventual loss to Michigan, & followed that one up with a home loss to smoking Michigan St, despite a 525-413 yd edge (3-0 TO deficit). Thus last week's rout of Illini was of utmost importance, as it stopped the bleeding, & revived hopes of a decent post-season reward. Hoosies playing out the string, and their 97th ranked defense won't contain Gophers' 4th ranked offense.
RATING: MINNESOTA 89

TEXAS TECH 68 - Colorado 31 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Texas Tech minus 15, and is still minus 15. As everyone knows, the Raiders are an awesome offensive machine, with an Achilles Heel known as defense. That statement is graphically displayed with this week's statistical printout,which shows Texas Tech possessing the nation's #1 offense (615 ypg, which is a full 86 ypg over 2nd place Bowling Green). But with their 597 yd defensive showing at Missouri, the Raiders have now edged Central Michigan as the most porous stop unit in the land. However, the Buffs are right there with them (#111 in total "D" & 116 in scoring "D"). TT has covered 3 of its 4 HGs by 24?, 25?, & 14? pts. The flood gates are open.
RATING: TEXAS TECH 88

MISSISSIPPI 34 - South Carolina 14 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Mississippi minus 8, and is now minus 7?. The Rebels are one of the more pleasant surprises this season. Behind the leadership of QB Manning, they've won their first 4 SEC contests for the first time since 1970, when Eli's father Archie, was under center. As a matter of fact, they are the only perfect squad in SEC play. They've been a steady force, & in possession of a balanced attack, averaging 171 RYs, as well as 299 PYs. Defensively, they rank 13th vs the run, holding Arkansas to 82 RYs, along with only 7 pts, 13 FDs, & 237 TYs. The Gamecocks haven't covered since their overtime loss to Tennessee, & their defense has been slipping of late.
RATING: MISSISSIPPI 88

NEW MEXICO 34 - Nevada-Las Vegas 17 - (8:00) -- Line opened at New Mexico minus 8, and is now minus 8?. As we have written on Pointwise the past couple of weeks, the red hot Lobos are only 15 pts from an amazing 15-0 spread run. Thus, they are a study in competitiveness. A week ago, they reached the heights with their 47-35 win over previously ATS unbeaten Utah, a 20-pt cover. In that one, they posted an amazing 407-80 RY edge, & that over a Ute squad which entered with a 174-105 RYpg advantage. New Mexico has Colorado St & Air Force up next, but those won't mean a thing, if this one gets away. The Rebs are averaging only 13 ppg in their last 4 outings, & are in off home OT loss to BYU.
RATING: NEW MEXICO 88

DALLAS 31 - Washington 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Dallas minus 3?, and is now minus 4. As we figured, smoking Cowboys couldn't get over the Tampa hump a week ago. Running into the Bucs off a loss is a proven road to disaster, which Dallas' zero pts, 9 FDs, & 178 yds attest.But Parcells has brought this squad too far, for any mid-season collapse. He is a motivator & tactician without peer. Entering the Buc game, Dallas ranked 4th, 8th, & 10th in total, rushing, & passing "O", as well as 1st, 2nd, & 5th in total, rushing, & passing "D". We know that the Redskins had last week off, but whereas Washington had impressive stats in the early going, it has slipped noticeably of late, with Spurrier talking about going back to his college-style passing "O". Won't work this quickly, & not against this defense.
RATING: DALLAS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Texas, Duke, SoCalifornia, OklahomaSt -- NFL: SanFran, Cincinnati, Denver

 

[Jaxx]

POWERSWEEP

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK: S CAROLINA +7' over MISSISSIPPI

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY SELECTIONS:
4 WASHINGTON over Oregon
3 VIRGINIA TECH over Miami (Fl)
3 TEXAS A&M over Kansas
2 Tulane (+) over NAVY
2 NOTRE DAME (+) over Florida St
2 MINNESOTA over Indiana

SUMMARY OF NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4 NY Giants over NY Jets
3 Carolina over HOUSTON
2 DALLAS over Washington
2 Philadelphia over ATLANTA

SUMMARY OF NFL TOTALS:
3 Steelers/Seahawks Under 44
3 Giants/Jets Over 38
3 Panthers/Texans Over 39*
2 Chargers/Bears Over 37*
2 Jaguars/Ravens Under 37

 

[Jaxx]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

MINNESOTA
Since the middle of last season, there hasn?t been a worse pointspread performer in the nation than Indiana. The Hoosiers are a wretched 1-11-1 vs. the number their last 13 games on the board, which hardly bodes well for their chances Saturday afternoon at the Metrodome against dangerous Minnesota. Going back a bit further, IU stands a poor 9-21-1 vs. the line since 2000 as an underdog. As for the potent Golden Gophers, note their 4-1 spread mark laying double digits in 2003, as well as a noteworthy 6-2 spread mark when favored this season.

IOWA
Until further notice, we?re going to keep looking against troubled Illinois. The Fighting Illini have fallen into a pointspread abyss, failing to cover their last six games in ?03, most by hefty margins, and prospects for a recovery Saturday afternoon against rugged Iowa at Iowa City do not look promising. That?s also because the Hawkeyes have performed so well lately under HC Kirk Ferentz. Note that Iowa is a spotless 9-0 vs. the line laying double digits since 2001 (7-0 in that role at Nile Kinnick Stadium), and has covered all four outings at home this season (now 16-3 last 19 as host!). And, since 2000, the Hawkeyes are a splendid 31-14 overall vs. the number.

COLORADO STATE
It?s Sonny Lubick?s time of year! The veteran Colorado State mentor haslong been known for having his teams improve as each campaign progresses, evidenced by a shining 31-10 spread mark the Rams? last five games of the regular season since 1995. And Lubick is at it again in 2003, as CSU is on a 3-game win and cover streak, with an impressive +25.25 AFS (Away From Spread) number the past two weeks, as it makes the short trip to Laramie for a battle vs. border rival Wyoming Saturday afternoon. Note that home-field edge has meant little when these teams meet in recent seasons, the visitor covering 9 of the past 10 meetings, and the Rams covering their last 5 at Laramie.

HAWAII
The go-against theme continues this week, and troubled San Jose Stateis a definite target. The beleaguered Spartans have covered just one of their six chances against the number in 2003 and have taken some vicious beatings along the way, such as last week?s wipeout loss at Boise State. Don?t expect a much better result when dangerous Hawaii visits Spartan Stadium Saturday afternoon. Note that San Jose has failed to cover all four of its chances as an underdog in 2003, and has posted a poor -13.75 AFS (Away From Spread) number its last two games. And the Warriors, thanks to HC June Jones, are always a recommendation in the Coach and Pointspread system this season.

CINCINNATI (NFL)
One of the hottest NFL teams is Cincinnati, and the surging Bengals lookto continue their fine recent play when visiting Tempe for a battle against Arizona Sunday afternoon. Under first-year HC Marvin Lewis, Cincy enters the contest having covered 4 straight games, as well as covering all three tries as a visitor this season. As for the Cards, they?ve been underachieving against the line this season (2-5 vs. number), which is nothing new for them, especially at Sun Devil Stadium, where they?ve dropped 33 of their last 52 spread decisions.

 

[Jaxx]

THE GOLD SHEET

The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!Technical Play of the Week IOWA over Illinois...Iowa has been quite reliable laying big points lately, standing a spotless 9-0 vs. the number as a double-digit favorite since 2001. The Hawkeyes are also 16-3 vs. the line their last 19 at Iowa City. Meanwhile, the Illini have dropped six in a row straight-up and against the line.

SUMMARY OF NFL KEY RELEASES
DALLAS by 14 over Washington
SAN FRANCISCO by 7 over St. Louis
UNDER 36 total points in the New England-Denver game

SUMMARY OF NCAA KEY RELEASES
MICHIGAN STATE by 6 over Michigan
TOLEDO by 38 over Buffalo
OREGON by 8 over Washington

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF KEY RELEASES

DALLAS 27 - Washington 13 ?Steve Spurrier?s clever quips not ringing so funny these days in D.C., as his Redskins have been getting outplayed in the ?pits,? have collected only 10 sacks, given up 25, and the ?Jet-Skin? trio of WR Coles, RB Canidate & KR/RB Chad Morton have a combined total of only one TD! Spurrier & others (LB Arrington) have criticized the players? effort, and owner Dan Snyder is steamed. But bringing in Joe Bugel to help the offense is not the answer. You know how we feel about Bill Parcells and his insistent attention to detail; he gets the ?Boys? full attention after shutout at T.B.

SAN FRANCISCO 23 - St. Louis 16 ?S.F. has struggled as a favorite, but 49ers are 2-1-1 as a dog TY, while former arch-rival Rams only 3-10 vs. spread last 13 away. Niners are healthier & more aggressive on defense TY, racking up 20 sacks. And they know they could have won first meeting TY if only WR Cedric Wilson had remembered to fall down in FG range rather than burn the clock at the end of regulation. St. Louis hoping for return of Marshall Faulk. But same effort that beat T.B. two weeks ago on this field should earn S.F. a victory.

UNDER THE TOTAL *New England 14-DENVER 12?enver ?scuffling? at QB, so maybe Tom Brady can help N.E. fight through pointspread domination of series by Broncos (have covered 16 of last 21 meetings). Pats certainly have the coaching, as Bill Belichick has helped them overcome injuries to key players and post 6-0-1 spread record after seasonopening rout at Buffalo! N.E.?s young players such as CB Samuel, S E. Wilson, DE Warren, LB Chatham & DE/DT/NT/blocking FB D. Klesko ( Wow, three slashes!) continue to make surprising contributions. Banged-up Broncs (0-2 last two as home favorite; ?under? all 3 home TY) now might be without speedy LB Mobley (check status).

MICHIGAN STATE 26 - Michigan 20 ?In crucial match in Big Ten race, look to resurgent Michigan St. to exact revenge for last season?s humiliation at hands of rival Wolverines. Spartan QB Smoker (66%, 12 TD passes), RB Hayes (4.7 ypc, 8 TDs) and WRs Shabaj (39 recs.) & Trannon (22) give HC John L. Smith enough weapons to pierce tough Michigan front seven. MSU ?D? yielding just 2.5 ypc and has week off to prepare for Wolverine RB Perry.

Oregon 31 - WASHINGTON 23 ?With UW not offering much value inSeattle (3-8-1 vs. line last 12 as host), down another key playmaker (homerun WR/KR Frederick the latest), and unlikely to rally for HC Gilbertson, Oregon looks like the solid choice. Duck QBs Clemens & Fife operating a much more balanced offense with RB Whitehead (172 YR vs. Stanford) contributing. Husky QB Picket, just 50% with 5 ints. last 3 games.

TOLEDO 44 - Buffalo 6 ?Toledo?s loss and Buffalo?s win figure to give Rockets total concentration in this game. Before upsetting one-dimensional Ohio U., Buffalo had dropped 18 in a row SU, covering just 4 of last 14 of those losses. Talented Toledo offense has tallied 44 ppg last 5 home games and covered last 4 laying double digits at the Glass Bowl. Visits to Miami-O, Marshall & Ball State last 1+ indicate Bulls not ?road warriors.?