Over 35 Mnf (n.e. @ Den)

[Mick Onofrio]

I am coming up with 42.5 thru 48 points on my calculations and that's with Kanell factored in, or Plummer factored out, however you want to look at it (half empty/half full). Here's what I am coming up with...

Calculated Numbers versus Actual Numbers

Calculated Line=New England -1.25
Actual Line=Denver -3.00
Calculated Line Range=6.28 Points
Calculated Score= New England 24.77 Denver 23.52
Calculated Total=48.29 Points, when I factor in other numbers to give the UNDER the benefit of the doubt the number I come up with is 42.5 on the nose.
Actual Total=35.5

My question is can the Total be off by that many points. Is this one of those games where they are testing bettors to look too deep into this game? When you say New England people think Defense, when you say Denver, people think Danny Kanell. I believe the OVER should be the Contrarian play tonight. And I cannot find an angle or enough trends to suggest playing the Under. And with my Total calculations being as high as they were this number, 35.5, looks very low.

I am playing OVER 35 (bought the hook)
240 to make 200

Good Luck tonight,
Mick

 

[Lester Diamond]

First of all I like what you wrote here. Very sensible. The only thing that scares me is The Public always plays the over on monday. usually the Favorite and the over parlayed. I love to play overs in the 34 to36 range when You have at least one throwing team(pats). I also like to play them because if you get one unexpected score ie kick or punt return or def score, You are normally home free. Your 42.5 seems very accurate to me and you are pushing me even further in the over direction.

Good Luck

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Not playing the teaser with the Pats

Not playing the teaser with the Pats

although I wish Mr. Diamond the best of luck with it.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

October 27th, 2002

October 27th, 2002

Denver at New England last Year. Almost one year exactly.

In this game the total was 45.5, can you believe that just one year later it's down 10 points with the only major difference between the two teams offensively is Brian Griese is no longer with the team? Talk about an overreaction to the QB position. Ten starting QBs yesterday did not start in week one.

 

[Cover Me]

Yes, but how many 3rd stringers, without barely any NFL experienced were starting? Also NE best WR, Brady security blanket & only real deep threat is also out.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Your thinking is shared by many others

Your thinking is shared by many others

Does that make you wrong? No. Does that make me wrong? No. This is a dangerously low number for two teams desperate in two different ways. Denver is in need of a win without Plummer and New England is in need of a win to create space in the Division. These two situations altough different but one-in-the-same are not times for conservative play calling. What you saw last week with New Eng and Cleve were two teams that nearly mirror images in the way they both manage a game. Denver got caught trying to sneak out of Baltimore playing a conservative game. Tonight we have offensive geniouses in Weiss, Shanahan, and Kubiak? Great offensive minds on both sides of the ball and a need to be agressive to win this game.

Good Luck and I know your thoughts about the total are shared by many good cappers. Tonight I'll play the role of the Bad Guy.
Mick.

 

[sashi patel]

What do you think about first quarter Total over 7 at even money. Total of 7 +110 for the third quarter, too.

Thanks.

 

[mush]

I wouldnt go as far as saying Kanell doesnt have any starting experience. He was the Giants starter for 2yrs and started for Reeves who drafted him for the Falcons for a few games. What I cant understand is how Denver can be favored, I think it should be a pickem. Belichek always has his team prepared and tonight should nt be any different.

Love the Pats and over tease.'

Mush

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Fellas

Fellas

I just got back from having a bite to eat with my good friend that works a "book"

After our conversation I called another Local that I deal with and took Denver -3
$550 to make $500

My good friend and his partners have no Denver Action if any it is so minimal that he doesn't even think there is one Denver Play. He also got word that Richard Seymour IS NOT PLAYING...AND TROY BROWN IS NOT PLAYING. DESPITE this he was told not to move the line in any way to reflect this if the Patriots release information on these injuries. There is a BAD STENCH coming from MILE HIGH. The most reliable receiver and the best D-Lineman our possibly out yet New England is MUM about the issue and the Books want as much New England action as possible. I will go with my gut like I did on Saturday with Penn State when I knew the money was on one side yet the line didn't reflect it. I will not put up as much here as I did on Penn State because I'm not a big NFL guy and I have never been. But I know from living in New England that a lot of money is on the Pats as it usually is but the Line doesn't reflect it at all and if anything the half-point movement to 3 almost makes you think there is a lot of Denver Money.

Tonight's Plays

Over 35 (bought hook)
$240 to make $200

Denver -3
$550 to make $500

Good Luck,
Mick

PS watch how badly this young NE secondary gets exploited tonight by Rod Smith and Lelie.

 

[vinnie]

Good info again Mick you can get 2- offshore GLTU

 

[Mick Onofrio]

alarming...

alarming...

Denver is 12-1 since 1969 at Home versus NEW ENGLAND straight up, according to John Dockery and Denver is 8-2 ATS L10 versus New England???

 

[THE GOAT]

I LIKE IT MICK...GL

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Every time I write about my info

Every time I write about my info

it always seems to backfire...tonight could be my night though, playing the Dozens today on the Roulette Wheel I hit 7 consectutive Bets on the 3rd dozen at a 2-1 payout playing $25 each spin of the wheel. That was a quick profit of $325 after I lost my final 3rd Dozen Bet as 17 Broke the streak. That's my #1 money maker at the casino. I always play the dozens and what I do is I find a table where I get a good feel and I buy markers. I sit there for a few minutes, wait a few spins of the wheel, then I play the dozen from which the last number came out of. I continue to play that dozen till it doesn't come up. I switch to the next dozen that comes up and try to catch another streak. I guess what the moral of the story is when you got a streak in front of you, regardless of the circumstances, you have to ride it out and the streak we have in front of us is Denver's run on the Pats.

Peace.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Every time I write about my info

Every time I write about my info

it always seems to backfire...tonight could be my night though, playing the Dozens today on the Roulette Wheel I hit 7 consectutive Bets on the 3rd dozen at a 2-1 payout playing $25 each spin of the wheel. That was a quick profit of $325 after I lost my final 3rd Dozen Bet as 17 Broke the streak. That's my #1 money maker at the casino. I always play the dozens and what I do is I find a table where I get a good feel and I buy markers. I sit there for a few minutes, wait a few spins of the wheel, then I play the dozen from which the last number came out of. I continue to play that dozen till it doesn't come up. I switch to the next dozen that comes up and try to catch another streak. I guess what the moral of the story is when you got a streak in front of you, regardless of the circumstances, you have to ride it out and the streak we have in front of us is Denver's run on the Pats.

Peace.

 

[MUTIGERFAN]

Thanks for the info. GL on your play tonigh

 

[Mick Onofrio]

I just hope one thing

I just hope one thing

That is I know New England is bet rather heavily in this region on a regular basis just because of the Pats' Fan's passion for their team alone. The injury info and the fact NE is silent on the subject not confirming nor denying Seymour and Brown are out and the Line doesn't reflect this. You would think that with Denver's injury problems at QB and New England's winning ways despite their injuries, the Broncos could have easily been Home Dogs tonight and I calculated that NE should be 1.00 to 1.50 Point Favorites tonight. At the very least it should have been a PK. This LINE just doesn't seem right. I know I talking the Conspiracy Theorist approach but all the cards are lining up that way. Good Luck to everyone tonight no matter what/who you take. If Kanell can take advantage of the man-to-man coverage like every NFL QB reagardless of the depth chart should do he should have success tonight and the Broncos should roll. It's all contingent on Kanell making the right reads and not getting fooled by the coverage disguises and not getting shook by the many blitzes he'll see. If Portis can get any kind of yardage this will be a big win for Denver especially without the most versatile DL Seymour if he doesn't play. Everyone talks about Belichek and his great preparation but what about Shanahan who is equally as prepared week in and week out. Hey, if Shanahan was so worried about his QB situation, don't you think he'd address it by now?

What I am hoping is the Pats are being BET as heavily Nationally as they are Regionally.

Hank Goldberg Predicted on ESPN that New England will win in a "LOW, LOW, LOW scoring game 14-10.
So you know what that means? Denver will win in a HIGH, HIGH, HIGH scoring game 41-17.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

I feel like...

I feel like...

A 2-0 NIGHT is upon me!!!! Let's get this thing going. I'm really feeling it.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

closer

closer

One TD and One FG away from an OVER before the 1st half ends. That's good shape but it's not a done deal yet. This game is unfolding as expected with the Pats unable to get consistant pressure on Kanell and they are doing a good job moving the Pocket for Kanell to get extra time.

 

[motley plays]

now its a td..........................it looooooks gooooooooooood

 

[boilermaker]

Looking good buddy. good luck in the 2nd half.