Gambling 101 applies tonight....

Wilson

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Lets see...#16 ranked BG off a huge national exposed win vs higher ranked and undefeated N. Illinois now travels to Miami and is getting 7 points. Public squares still have that BG big win in their minds and says to themselves "I'm all over BG!!!!"

Wrong....Miami wins convincingly tonight.
 

nyraider

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EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!

EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!

TOTALLY AGREE!

MIAMI -7 "BIG"

ABOLUTELY RIGHT, JOE P PUBLIC WILL CREAM, SEEING BG AT +7 ?
DON'T EVEN TRY TO FIGURE THIS GAME OUT, THE LINE TELLS YOU WHO TO BET!

GOOD LUCK DAN!
 

gman2

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normally i would agree. im as anti-public as they come and very cynical when it comes to the rankings. not in this case tonight however. this game should go down to the very last few minutes.
 

Nickelback

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There's a very big misconception going around here that the line opened in Vegas at around 6 when the truth is it opened at LVSC at 3.5.

Do the homework and check it yourself if you don't believe me.
 

Mr Hockey

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The line did NOT open at 3.5 offshore though. I don't think anyone could pop up a ticket from offshore where they got 3.5
 

Nickelback

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Usually its quite easy to see if a line has been nailed by steam right when its released, but I hardly ever see a line move 3.5 points as we saw in this instance right off the bat especially when most books released their line at 6 or higher. It also sets up quite a nice middle which Vegas books would usually frown upon especially when it includes key numbers like 4, 6, and 7. Therefore, my theory is that other books (mostly in Vegas) took the initiative to set a higher line than what LVSC released and everyone else followed including LVSC the next day when they reset the line at 7. We all know that books like to keep similar lines to others so that one does not get pounded with a bargain line.

If you ask me what the best value is, I'd say BG ML +250. . . play it small, sit back and hope for the best. Win big or lose small. . . can't go wrong either way. If you have the guts, go with hellah and several good cappers here and be willing to lay the points to try and win some $$$ tonight in the hopes of a large victory for Miami OH.
 

Nickelback

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Sorry Wilson, I feel like I'm taking over your thread, but wanted to keep all my thoughts for this game in one area:

Actually, after looking at some lines, I think the best value is taking BG over 27 points for the game (Olympic) as the biggest mismatch statistically (if you look at Master Capper's thread) is BGs pass offense vs. Miami's pass defense. They should be able to cover this number. . . the question will be how successful is Miami's offense in comparison.
 

gman2

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wilson:

sorry, but you apparently have me confused with someone else.

no - i did not bet virginia tech over west virginia or predict any blowout. only time i have bet on or against west virginia was last weekend.

gl with your play tonight
 

Rudy

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I think that LVSCrint at -3.5 is a misprint. This game was chatted around at -6 or so from minute one, and the Stardust open is the only one that people could put money up on.
 

nyraider

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wilson!

wilson!

i was going to post the same thing as you!

vegas dont give gifts, this line looks to tempting to take a ranked team over miami of ohio?
people who are average beters, who just bet, for the sake of betting the game. probaby dont have a clue of who these teams are!! THEY WILL JUMP ALL OVER BOWLING GREEN!

TAKING MIAMI BIG!
COULD BE ONE OF THE MOST SOLID PLAYS THIS YEAR IN COLLAGE!
 

The Big Tease

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Yup I agree.....with the contrarian viewpoint. However, I am VERY sure that this game will not end up the same. I am as contrarian as they come, and I am convinced that this line is more inflated than the BG/N Illinois game for a reason. Sharpies are going to be on Miami tonight and Vegas knows this. They dont have short memories. They just lost to the sharpies in a game almost EXACTLY like this 2 weeks ago.

You heard it here first.....do not be surprised if Vegas has made this line too large even for the sharpies. Miami might win this one by exactly 7 points, and I would not be surprised at all. Conventional thinking this line should be Miami -3. That would get even action. Something is up and I think it is reverse of what we had 2 weeks ago.
 

Kdogg21

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Good luck Wilson!!

Im sick of playmakers too. To make it worse they had snoop dogg i guess last night. Next thing you know Lebron James will be on...:eek:
 

gardenweasel

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nickel

nickel

i`m wondering how much of the miami oh pass defense stat is due to teams having to constantly play from behind....
 

Elway

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CRIS had the 1st #s on this game

Im on Miami-7

11/02 19:05:09 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 6 OPENER
11/02 19:36:19 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 6?
11/02 19:55:10 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 7
11/03 12:06:44 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 7?
11/03 19:26:18 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 7
11/04 10:56:35 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 59? OPENER
11/04 10:57:26 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 61
11/04 10:57:44 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 62
11/04 11:33:19 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 61?
11/04 11:35:29 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 61
11/04 15:36:10 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 60?
11/04 16:19:38 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 6?
11/04 16:30:54 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 7
11/04 18:02:39 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 6?
11/04 18:04:13 FB CRIS #102 MIAMI OHIO 7
11/04 18:05:43 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 61
11/04 18:15:38 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 61?
11/04 18:17:04 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 62
11/04 18:22:34 FB CRIS #101 BOWLING GREEN 61?
 

gardenweasel

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nickel

nickel

i`m wondering how much of the miami oh pass defense stat is due to teams having to constantly play from behind....
 
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