Interesting Betting Scenario

[Smiley72]

I came across an interesting scenario when looking at certain matchups....id appreciate any input....for example today...

Blues -.5 -125
Ducks ML +164

If you put 1 unit (40 dollars for example) on each of the above line in this game, the following payout is given.

Anaheim Mighty Ducks 4-November-2003 5:05 PM PST Money Line for Game +164 Risking 40.00 to Win 65.60 USD
St. Louis Blues 4-November-2003 5:05 Spread -0.5 for Game -125 Risking 50.00 to Win 40.00 USD

So, if the Ducks win, you make 15.60. If Blues win, you break even. The only way you lose is if the game ties (-50). So, in my view, a wager like this is simply the value of the dog winning (+1/3 unit) vs. odds of a tie.

First, is my logic flawed at all? Am I missing something here??? Is my math off? Assuming the chance of a tie is less than 20% of games, which it seems to be, this seems like a very safe bet, and a good way to accumulate some extra cash.

Second, does anyone have any info on the % of ties/season, and any angles or trends that would possibly point to a tie, and thus a reason to avoid a wager like this.

Thanks! GL everyone!

-Smiley

 

[kickserv]

Blues -.5 -125 ($1.80)
Ducks ML +164 ($2.64)


ok..........you say put 40 dollars on each.......

if Blues win you would win 72 dollars for a profit of 32 bucks

(40x1.80=72-40=32)

if Ducks win you would win $105.40 for a profit of $65.60

(40x2.64=105.60-40=65.60)

if game ends in a tie you would lose 40 dollars......a push on the Ducks and a loss on the Blues -0.5


.....now remember........if the Blues win.......you would lose 40 dollars on the Ducks bet and only make 32 bucks on the Blues bet


so.......bottom line........NOT WORTH IT.......:nono:

 

[kickserv]

now if your going to put more on one bet then the other....well maybe.......but why bother :shrug:

 

[infinii]

Slightly off topic but your idea almost borders on scalping a line.

To scalp, you would take opposite side of same game with different lines...resulting in a small win no matter who wins.

You can take advantage of this by grabbing a favourite overnight using the moneyline. Then pray that the public loves the play and the line moves enough that the next day before gametime, you take the dog.

ie. using theoretical lines
overnight line:
Wings -220
Penguins +200

next day before gametime:
Wings --260
Penguins +235

So if you took Wings at -220 and Penguins at +235, you either win $15 (if pens win) or come out even (if wings win) ...but you are risking nothing.

 

[E-Z MONEY$$$]

I am going to 100% re-iterate what kickserve said.

IN THE LONG RUN THIS IS A LOSING PROPOSITION. PERIOD. CANNOT BE ARGUED.

I'm going to use 100 increments just because it's easier to make my point.

Ties in the NHL are right around 20% this year and for this scenario we will assume they are.

Lets say this exact situation comes up 5 times.

So you have 625/500 on the blues -.5
You also have 500/820 on the ducks ML

Lets just say that the Blues win it twice, the Ducks win it twice, and you get one tie in that timespan (20% probability 1 in 5 times)

So on the 1 tie game you lose $125
On the two St. Louis wins you lose $0
On the two Ducks wins you win $78 bucks
NET PROFIT over this time span is $-47 dollars. OVER 10 SCENARIOS -$94 dollars, etc.......

Ties do happen in the NHL not necessarily all the time, but enough to make this bet a loser in the long haul. You cannot beat the book like this, impossible. Even more so in this case in what the books are imagining to be a low scoring game with the total at 5 and juiced to the under.

I'm not sure if I made my point enough, but you cannot look at it in terms of just this one game. Sure you can obviously get lucky and make money in this one instance if the game doesn't end in a tie, but over the course of a season, you have to look at these scenarios as happening more than once and not as a one time shot. This is like playing russian roulette. I'm still not sure if I explained myself properly, but I guarantee you will go broke in the long run trying this. Books would adjust the numbers if it was possible to beat it like this, but IT IS NOT.

Good luck to you though.

 

[Smiley72]

kickserve,

thanks for the reply, much appreciated...i made a small mistake in my initial write-up....the wager on the blues line is to win 40, not risking 40.. From what i see....

STL wins (risk 50 to win 40 = 40 profit - 40 loss(from ducks loss) = 0
Ducks win (risk 40 to win 65.60 = +65.60 profit - 50 (risked on STL) = + 15.60
Tie = -50 risked on STL (push on Ducks)

From what I see, this approach still works as long as the odds on a tie are less than 20% (because you need to win 4 bets to offset 1 tie).

What do you think?

-Smiley

 

[kickserv]

explained perfectly........

not worth it

 

[Smiley72]

EZ,

Thanks, your explanation made perfect sense....that was the only factor I could not account for.....I was unsure of the tie %...from what I figure, unless the tie % was around 15% its a losing idea....I just wasnt sure that the % was actually at.

-Smiley