I think the oddsmakers are taking tonight off. They made enough money last night to get them through a bad weekend. The reason I believe this is the TOTAL is dead on the average of points scored between these two teams throughout the season. The Listed total is 51 and I have seen it as low as 50. Now taking the total points scored in all games between these two teams in all 8 games each has played and combining them to formulate an average between them you will come up with this number: 50.945
TCU thru 8 games has scored 227 Points and given up 151
The average total of points scored in TCU games is 47.26
Louisville thru 8 has scored 278 and given up 159
The average total of points scored in Cardinal games is 54.63
Combined you will get 50.945
BUT>>> AND THAT'S A BIG BUT!!!
What these teams do within conference USA is a whole 'nother story.
Within the Conference:
TCU in 5 games has scored 167 and given up 124
That's an average total of 58.20 points in TCU conference games.
Louisville in 4 games has scored 145 points and given up 89
That's an average of 58.50 points in Cardinal Conference games.
COMBINED THESE TWO TEAMS ARE TOTALING 58.35 POINTS BETWEEN THEM WITHIN CONFERENCE USA MATCHUPS. This would give up 7-8 Points of value with the OVER. Oddsmakers hardly ever look at Inter-Conference numbers, but instead look at season totals and averages. The number they came up with for a total just tells me they punched a few numbers into their computers and...VOILA!!! They came up with the same 50-51 that my calculator comes up with.
Another startling stat is TCU's conference games have accounted for 74% of their total points scored this year. 74%!!!! I know 5 games out of eight have come within the conference and I know last week's shootout with Houston inflates this, but just 62.5% of their games(5 of 8) have accounted for 74% of their offense (167 of 227 points) This tells me their offensive approach works against their conference foes or they are more comfortable running their schemes against familiar opponents. Moreover, they are giving up almost 6 more PPG within the Conference which I believe is once again due to familiarity. Teams are used to seeing the Defensive looks from TCU and are not intimidated or have built game plans to counteract the agressiveness of the Horned Frog Def.
Looking at Louisville, I find another team that is very comfortable versus Conference Opponents. In fact...defensively they are tougher than TCU within C-USA, giving up over 2 PPG less than the Frogs. Offensively they are very comfortable averaging 36.25 PPG in 4 C-USA games this year. TCU is averaging 33.40 PPG within the Conference. I'll Break down the stats once again for both teams within C-USA games:
TCU Games are totaling out at 58.20 ppg in 5 Conference Games.
Lou Games are totaling out at 58.50ppg in 4 Conference Games.
As for my Side Calculations they go like this:
Actual Vegas Line: TCU -2
Average Calculated Line: TCU -4.13
Predictor Method Variation: 12.64 Points
Analyzing these numbers it would look to the naked eye that you are getting value in TCU as the play, but the HUGE variation between Methods makes this one a NO PLAY. A few methods have Louisville Favored and the strongest method, in my opinion, PURE POINTS, has Lousivlle as a 2.68 Point Favorites.
Note: In their last two meetings over the past two years, their only meetings in history...TCU has handled Louisville rather easily in high scoring games. Lousiville was obviously a Public Team then as they still appear to be, but the TCU ranking might throw people off. AS for my opinion on tonight's game I believe the best possible betting situation is OVER 51. But I will wait to see where, if any, line movemnet takes this total. Even at 51 I still see over 7 points of value based on these two teams style of play within C-USA...Back Later with more thoughts...
Mick
TCU thru 8 games has scored 227 Points and given up 151
The average total of points scored in TCU games is 47.26
Louisville thru 8 has scored 278 and given up 159
The average total of points scored in Cardinal games is 54.63
Combined you will get 50.945
BUT>>> AND THAT'S A BIG BUT!!!
What these teams do within conference USA is a whole 'nother story.
Within the Conference:
TCU in 5 games has scored 167 and given up 124
That's an average total of 58.20 points in TCU conference games.
Louisville in 4 games has scored 145 points and given up 89
That's an average of 58.50 points in Cardinal Conference games.
COMBINED THESE TWO TEAMS ARE TOTALING 58.35 POINTS BETWEEN THEM WITHIN CONFERENCE USA MATCHUPS. This would give up 7-8 Points of value with the OVER. Oddsmakers hardly ever look at Inter-Conference numbers, but instead look at season totals and averages. The number they came up with for a total just tells me they punched a few numbers into their computers and...VOILA!!! They came up with the same 50-51 that my calculator comes up with.
Another startling stat is TCU's conference games have accounted for 74% of their total points scored this year. 74%!!!! I know 5 games out of eight have come within the conference and I know last week's shootout with Houston inflates this, but just 62.5% of their games(5 of 8) have accounted for 74% of their offense (167 of 227 points) This tells me their offensive approach works against their conference foes or they are more comfortable running their schemes against familiar opponents. Moreover, they are giving up almost 6 more PPG within the Conference which I believe is once again due to familiarity. Teams are used to seeing the Defensive looks from TCU and are not intimidated or have built game plans to counteract the agressiveness of the Horned Frog Def.
Looking at Louisville, I find another team that is very comfortable versus Conference Opponents. In fact...defensively they are tougher than TCU within C-USA, giving up over 2 PPG less than the Frogs. Offensively they are very comfortable averaging 36.25 PPG in 4 C-USA games this year. TCU is averaging 33.40 PPG within the Conference. I'll Break down the stats once again for both teams within C-USA games:
TCU Games are totaling out at 58.20 ppg in 5 Conference Games.
Lou Games are totaling out at 58.50ppg in 4 Conference Games.
As for my Side Calculations they go like this:
Actual Vegas Line: TCU -2
Average Calculated Line: TCU -4.13
Predictor Method Variation: 12.64 Points
Analyzing these numbers it would look to the naked eye that you are getting value in TCU as the play, but the HUGE variation between Methods makes this one a NO PLAY. A few methods have Louisville Favored and the strongest method, in my opinion, PURE POINTS, has Lousivlle as a 2.68 Point Favorites.
Note: In their last two meetings over the past two years, their only meetings in history...TCU has handled Louisville rather easily in high scoring games. Lousiville was obviously a Public Team then as they still appear to be, but the TCU ranking might throw people off. AS for my opinion on tonight's game I believe the best possible betting situation is OVER 51. But I will wait to see where, if any, line movemnet takes this total. Even at 51 I still see over 7 points of value based on these two teams style of play within C-USA...Back Later with more thoughts...
Mick
