three nfl plays for sunday 11/09/03..........

[gman2]

playing these three plays, all on the moneyline.
i very much expect these to in some way go 2-1 -- thus turning a nice profit. great value in these numbers in my opinion:

washington moneyline (+155)
jacksonville moneyline (+220)
buffalo moneyline (+170)

washington's come under a lot of scrutiny as of late. im not convinced seattle is good enough to be laying points again on the road. they just failed in a similar spot in cincinnati as a 3 point chalk. seahawks much better on the west coast. spurriers boy will move the ball against seattle.

colts coming off a big win in miami. i guess a lot of this play is based on me just not believing indianapolis will avoid a letdown. if you look at their schedule this year, theyve showed up vs the elite teams and kinda gone through the motions vs the weaker teams. jacksonville held a halftime lead in the first meeting in indy. houston almost held a halftime lead in indy as well. browns could have beaten indy in week 1. ive never been a big believer in manning. to me, its just a matter of time before the colts have a real clunker. i think it happens this week

buffalo coming off a bye and looking to right the ship after that embarrassment in kansas city. dallas with a huge set of games up ahead. parcells obviously will obviously try to focus his guys on this week and no further -- but with the cowboys in unchartered territory and with games vs new england, carolina, and miami in the coming weeks, this is another game where i dont expect a sharp performance from the superior team. buffalo more than capable of winning this game

some might say its throwing money away on these 3 moneylines, particularly jacksonville, but i dont see it that way at all. lots of value in that +220 number.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Your Redskins and Jags plays are definitely possible outright winners. As for the Bills, until they can be more consistent it is hard to know what team will show up. Williams days as coach could come to an end by seasons end.
Enjoy your plays and analysis each week in all sports. GL

HORNS

 

[mjalam]

i agree with ur buffalo pick, their secondary is good enough to hold down quincy and if bledsoe can get himself going even remotely then i'd say they have a decent shot to win that game

 

[ND2002HORNS]

What makes me tentative on the Bills is that Parcells coached Bledsoe before, so does he have some defensive schemes that will throw him for a loop?:shrug:
Just my 2 cents.

HORNS

 

[Lester Diamond]

Love the Bills pick!!

 

[Superbear]

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (26-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (27-9 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.1
The average score in these games was: Team 24.9, Opponent 19.4 (Average point differential = +5.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (45.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (40-23).

Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning record playing a losing team in the second half of the season. (30-10 since 1983.) (75%, +19 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (30-13)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7
The average score in these games was: Team 23.1, Opponent 18.5 (Average point differential = +4.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 20 (48.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (17-1).

Play On - Home underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (

FROM TOMMOROWS BOSTON HERALD

BOSTON HERALD
I.M. BETTOR
BY THE NUMBERS
WEEK 10
Friday, Nov. 7, 2003


Dreary as it was last Wednesday, I found myself upstairs at the recently reopened Rattlesnake on Boylston Street nursing a Dos Equis watching the Louisville- TCU game. Sitting with a ticket on Louisville taking 2.5 (2?), Big G spotted me and unannounced took the empty seat to my right. Dubbed ?Big? for his generosity, appetite and the size of his bets, as most gamblers do, it wasn?t the usual, ?Hi, how are you?? from Big G, but rather, ?Who do have??

?Louisville taking the points,? I said.

?I?m not involved,? he said. ?It?s been a tough year. A few weeks I ago, I had Alabama and under against Tennessee and had both of them won until Tennessee tied the game in the last 15 seconds.? Shaking his head, ?Five overtimes later, I lost both bets.?

Ten minutes and three missed Louisville field goals later, including one that hit the crossbar on the game?s final play, I was now camped in Big G?s corner. ?Tough beat,? was all he said before picking up my bar tab and walking out the door.

The gambling life isn?t easy. If it were, we?d all be on computers in Bali or some such exotic locale hooked up to Sports Offshore in Antigua sending in play after play and waiting for the Federal Express truck to deliver us big checks. Yet to talk with local bookmakers, life on their end isn?t all caviar and Champagne. To quote one, ?The NFL lines stink. How could they make the Eagles only 4.5 ( 4 ?) last week over the Falcons? Before it moved, I was hammered. Who?s going to bet against these soft numbers??

Without waiting for my answer, he rhetorically answered, ?Nobody, that?s who.?

Entering the fray in Week 10, the anxious and angry acolytes are stuck $370 from a 6-5 mark by the numbers. Looking to extricate them from a hole, I see numbers that appear to easy to beat, but the problem is that each easy one is a road favorite- Minnesota; Seattle; Tampa Bay and Indianapolis. And while road favorites have fared better than home ?dogs in 2003, after losing with Oakland laying points at Detroit last Sunday, let?s just say, that?s not a road I want to travel.

For our play on Sunday, let?s go to Dallas where the Cowboys are stuck in a Redskins-Patriots sandwich. Pounding a divisional rival last week, next week it?s onto to Foxboro for a Sunday nighter in the ad nauseam bowl. In between, the Bills fly into Big D. Let?s face it, the Bills of 2003 stink on the road and their head coach is in over his head against Billy Idol Parcells. But the situation for the Bills is riper than a 10-day old peach. I love the Bills in this spot and will risk $440 on them taking 4-points.

 

[hogman14]

Bellichick was a lot of the reason (many will argue) for Bledsoe's failure. I agree the Bills secondary will keep them in the game, I will say that this Cowboys team is overrated even if they win the Superbowl.

If Washington's recievers can stay away from the man2man coverage schemes Seattle brings, they should blow Seattle away. Just a matter of the QB staying out of rush/pressure situations...

The Jags to me are an enigma. Hard to back such a bad team. Been learning my lesson this year w/the Raiders. Although good pts, as indy may be in a tough spot...
couple trends to support a play on jax.
jax 13-3 ats as HD v. opp off SU win of 8+
INDY 0-8 SU/ATS away off Dolphins win....

 

[Superbear]

Wash are a tme zone "specal" play also...10 am for Sea

 

[bej0101]

sorry to say but i hate all three..especially on the ml..sea will handle wash, indy smartly over jags and boys over bills in a low low low scoring , hard hitting affair

 

[gman2]

bej0101:

i dont think youve ever concurred with a play of mine. i guess we just have different criteria for our plays.:shrug:

 

[bej0101]

then you must be winning this year..gl

 

[Kdogg21]

Redskins look like a upset to me. Pressure is on in D.C. and i just have a feeling Spurrier might go into his bag of 'desperate to get a win' tricks. He needs to have a good showing at home to get some confidence back. If the Bears and Bengals can hang with them, I expect the skins to do so

Good luck Gman

 

[Skanoochies]

I think calling this a sandwich game for Dallas is insane. Why would they look ahead to next weeks game with N.E.? Because Parcells used to coach them? I don`t think so. Its just another non conf. opponent like Buff. They need this win to maintain the lead in the N.F.C.east. Lose, and Philly beats G.B. mon. nite, and they are tied for first. They may lose to Buff.( I doubt it) but there is no way in hell they take them lightly IMO.

Good luck this week everyone.

Skanoochies.:nono:

 

[rc conditioner]

good luck gman!

 

[THE WIZZARD]

GL GMAN.


WIZZ.

 

[gman2]

adding:

1 unit....cleveland (+10) over kansas city (local line, but since 9.5's are more prevalent online, i will treat it as a "hook buy")

first time in awhile that im backing the clowns. but gained confidence in them as the week progressed. yes, green suspension not ideal, but i think the shake-up at the wide receiver spot wakes up the team, and holcomb already had a ton of success against this chiefs team last year. normally browns coaches play it close to the vest but they said they are ready to throw anything at the chiefs after the bye week. could see a wide-open game. im not an over player, but could have a shootout like last year. regardless, browns on the road have been a covering machine the last year and a half. they get it done

 

[gman2]

shouldnt have added that browns play. now i remember why i avoid their games like the plague. they had their chances to stay close but you have no chance of keeping close to the chiefs by settling for field goals. bad play on the browns.

 

[NySportsfan]

good call w/jacksonville gman, I usually like most of your plays, Jacksonville finally fu/ckin covered a game for me Ive been chasing them way too much, nice to get your outright too, g luck w/the rest of your picks

Mike

 

[vinnie]

Well there's your 2 :thumb: do I hear 3 :toast: very nice gman

 

[MR.MANHATTAN]

G-man

G-man

g in g-man stands for Gap , Gap = $ gman a monster