One Big One today

[Mick Onofrio]

Arizona at Pittsburgh
OVER 40

I see both Offenses putting up large yardage through the air today. This game almost reminds me of the week One matchup between Det and ARI. I think Blake will have plenty of chances to hook up with Boldin and I think the Steelers Offense will come alive today also. On the other side of the ball it's the same story for both teams. Both defenses can be exploited, especially Arizona when they don't have the protection of 110 Degree weather at home. I like this play enough to Risk $550 to make $500.

Steelers 31 Cards 24

 

[Lovin Life]

Mike,


I think you may have a good thing.I am not playing it but have total at 48.

 

[FATMAN]

Like the over here as well, pitts D at home just isn't what it used to be..............only scary thing is that ariz has been running the ball well for the last 2 weeks......running games not good for overs:shrug: that is the only thing pitts can stop is the run so lets hope blake and boldin have big games

Pitts O is so Do:thefinger and weather shouldn't be a problem its sunny and around 45 great football weather

 

[FATMAN]

OUCH just found a stat......................pitts is 15-5 under at home with back to back road games on deck:shrug:

Take it for what it's worth...............Still like the over w/ you though
GL

 

[Kdogg21]

Good luck Mick!!!!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I like it as well, add in the fact that they played a HS game on Friday night and the VT/Pitt game from last night all on the same field should make for alot of mistakes on a sloppy field. GL

HORNS

 

[Mick Onofrio]

it took a miracle

it took a miracle

But it worked, final score

Steelers 28 Cards 15

43 Points
+$500 for the day and I'm done. Unless one of you guys really has the laste game nailed?

 

[slickjim]

Take Balt Mick.

 

[MR.MANHATTAN]

220

220

of it on baltimore +7 my good man.or perhaps a small 2 tmr w/ the pack monday.

 

[azcat34]

Mick

Mick

The BALT ST Louis over under looks low at 43. Looks like the over in that game is a good play. What do you think?

 

[Mick Onofrio]

I'M GONNA START WORKING ON THE LATE GAME RIGHT NOW

I'M GONNA START WORKING ON THE LATE GAME RIGHT NOW

I was playing blackjack today at Mohegan Sun not for anything else but to work on my High-Low Counting with the extra decks. I was also trying to breakdown some cutting statistics too. I mean how many decks actually get played in relation to where the cards were cut. This was my first time really trying a high-low count in 8 deck weekend blackjack. I averaged about $12/hour which isn't bad but as a counter it isn't great. You can tell that nobody counts anymore because of the pace in which people play. It amazes me that Blackjack players are in such a hurry to lose money. I don't know why people would play this game without the ability to count cards. I will be shifting my focus to Halves or Half Counts in High Stakes, One Up One Down Blackjack for the next month or so. It's difficult to try to remain inconspicuous when you count in the High Stakes Pit so you almost have to lose on purpose sometimes to remain unsuspected. These Greedy Indians will Ban you for counting. On to tonight's matchup...Baltimore at St. Louis...I will work on this one and report my findings when I'm done.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

???

???

Anybody come across this angle yet??
Play AGAINST St. Louis after two road games (9-24 since 1990).

 

[Mick Onofrio]

I am finding

I am finding

That Baltimore should be an average of 2.81 Point Underdogs with very little variation between predictor methods. My calculated score is:
ST Louis 24 Baltimore 21...that is an approximate number.
The actual numbers are...
ST Louis 23.91 Baltimore 21.10

This might be the perfect teaser for me.

Baltimore +13 and OVER 37
or I might just play Baltimore +7 for 100 or 200

It does look like the line is off in favor of the Ravens. Now I'm not sure if this is an overexageration of Faulk's return? I do know St Louis will have to pass the ball to win. Ravens D is geared towards stopping the run. Baltimore isn't the kind of team that can play from behind. They have to control the game with running and defense. We all know that. What we don't know is what Boller's true progression up to this point has been. Playing inside where the game is a little faster might help him or it could hurt him. I like the Baltimore Play tonight but I don't love it.
Some trends I found:
Play AGAINST St. Louis after two road games (9-24 since 1990)
Balt is 17-4 ATS as Road Dogs

Rams are 0-17-1 ATS when they score less than 17 points
Rams are 0-6 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite versus a sub .500 opponent (San Fran last week)

Who has the time to create this trends??? I find it funny. Especially the last one.

This game tonight presents two situations in which the Rams have never covered a spread. Interesting. I am leaning towards the Ravens anyways but small.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

ok

ok

1-0 +$500 today...

Taking Baltimore +7 small
$110 to make $100

Found some intersting trends and angles that say "Play Against the Rams" in big pretty blinking lights. Now I have never been one to squander profits over trends and angles, my calculations do find this line to be off in favor of Baltimore. I will not let greed consume me but I will try to add to a very profitable day.

 

[slickjim]

now your talking,Baltimore!

 

[azcat34]

Mick

Mick

What kind of yardage do you see for Jamal Lewis. The over under is 100.5 and I think this is a good prop for the over. Im not usually into props but with the way the 49ers ran all over the Rams defense last week, i could definately see Lewis getting over 100.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

Put it this way

Put it this way

The only way Baltimore has a chance is with successful running. The thing I would worry about is the some-what emergence of Chet Taylor...rememner him?? The MAC STUD in all those Glass Bowl Games at Toledo. I think at this point in the season, given all the work Lewis has put in thus far, and Baltimore has somehow found themselves in a contention role...they will have to win games and rest Lewis too. Sounds like an oxymoron to me. But for the sake of winning with Baltimore and the sake of your question, I think Lewis will have to run the ball 30+ times tonight so that does give you a shot. What is the juice on that prop? I would imagine it would be -130 on the over. Good Luck either way.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

I have a feeling

I have a feeling

The St Louis Rams will be chased hard and heavy tonight. I don't want to bite me tongue or shoot myself in the foot and I never like to talk about my "chaser" theory before a game it applies to but fill in the blanks. You might have done a shit load of work on this game as a solid handicapper you might be and drawn the conclusion that the Rams are the play but this Line was set at least 3-4 points higher than it should be in an effort to protect oddsmakers from a bad week. This falls under that theory. I keep crunching numbers and the MOST I feel the Rams should be laying is approx 4.5 and that's being super benevolent with home field advantage to the tune of 3.21 points. Overall, I am sticking to the 2.81 average that I keep coming up with as I compute all my data from past performances in a ton of similar situations and I'm getting that Penn State vs Ohio State feeling again. This is not your typical computer generated line from Vegas. They put thought into this one. There are some strong angles that support a play against the Rams and I think they threw 7 out there to see which way it would go. I know there is a lot of Ram action and we see a Line as dead at 7 as Kerry Collins looked today or as the Jets season for that matter. If you see a jump to 6.5 or 6 that might look as if there is money coming in on the Ravens be very very very scared. That might be the dead point I'm looking for or if it goes up a half point. The half point increase late on a favorite is sometimes used as a scare tactic to make people that aren't sure about the play jump on it out of fear that they might not get the line they wanted...as if it will jump to 9 or something. So either a late mover to 6 or 6.5 or a jump to 7.5 will make this play very strong for me. I have seen this up close and personal in Vegas on Sunday Night and Monday Night games where the smallest jump will trigger this weird flight or fight syndrome in bettors that sends them RUNNING to the window to place their wager. This game could be psychological warfare between the Oddsmakers and us, the bettors. My opinion is a lot of late dough will come poring in on the Rams after this Minnesota and Jet Debacle...especially the Minnesota one. That was the trap of a lifetime. DISCLAIMER: Don't take any of my opinions personal. They are just that...opinions. And they have been made based on observations over the years with Locals, in Vegas Sportsbooks, Online, etc...Just because you bet Minnesota doesn't mean you're a sucker. It might have been the right call on paper. But you just never know what'll happen on that field and last but not least I think it's safe to say Joe Lupo-Types made a killing tonight.
Good Luck to everyone tonight.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

and

and

The Colts were leading 7-0 too today.

 

[worm44]

HEY MICK.......OH FORGET IT...NEVER MIND