Every year's got it's own atypical thing...
Every year's got it's own atypical thing...
You know, it seems like a strange year, seeing as the road favs covered at such a high rate early on. But I tell ya, going back thru my database,
every year is strange in it's own way. One year it's road favorites covering, one year it's road dogs covering...whatever. After 8 years of tracking this stuff, that's all I've come up with...there is no "typical year".
Which is why it is so hard to win. Someone has a killer year and they think they have it figured out. Then the next year they do exactly what got them there and they get beat. And a lot of people will keep on doing that thing that was good one year and never adapt...just waiting for it to work again. Then you start questioning yourself, going against your "thing" that worked, and soon you're in knots.
Check this out. These are the margins by which Fav or Dogs covered, and by which Home or Road teams covered. ("Road Teams = +14" indicates that 14 more road teams than home teams covered the spread over the course of the year)....
Just to make it stand out a bit more, some color:
More Favorites covering is
in GREEN
More Dogs covering is
in BLUE
More Home Teams covering is
in ORANGE
More Road Teams covering is
in RED
2003 (up to Week 9)
Favorites = +8
Road Teams = +14
2002
Dogs = +35
Home Teams = +3
2001
Dogs = +6
Home Teams = +12
2000
Dogs = +17
Road Teams = +19
1999
Dogs = +16
Home Teams = +8
1998
Favorites = +9
Home Teams = +35
1997
Dogs = +24
Road Teams = +12
1996
Dogs = +10
Home Teams = +26
Now how often do you see the same color combination come up in back to back years? Once. And how inconsistent is it? Extremely!! Every possible combination of Home/Road and Favs/Dogs is represented.
How can road teams be +12 in '97, and
47 games worse in '98? Or dogs go from +35 last year, to -8 through only half a season this year?
Like I said, sh!t happens.
