"Friends don't let friends bet on the Bengals"

[BigSix]

I borrowed that quote from someone here at MJ's and this week it rings true.

I am a fairly green capper but KC -6 seems like a early Xmas present!

KC has the advantage in every aspect of this game.

Better coach
Better defense
Better offense
Better special teams

Emotion?? Hmmmmm....there is no coach in the NFL that is as emotional as DV so they have the advantage there also.


And how about, some season numbers;

Rushing plays that went for 10+ yrds
KC 13%
CIN 7%

Rushing yards per play
KC 4.3
CIN 3.3

Passes that went for 20+ yards
KC 11%
CIN 7%

Passing yards per play
KC 6.8
CIN 6.0


And this borrowed from MrChristo

KC: 7-1 (Av. win 13.9) off ANY 10+ ATS win. (inc. covers @ Balt and Houst this season.)
9-2 off 2 or more straight wins. (last 3 years)
5-1 v. AFC North. (And 5-1 over) (last 3 years)
5-1 v. <.500 teams in second half of season. (last 3 years)

Cinci: 7-17-1 (av. loss 10.5) home 7- dog.
1-6-1 (av. loss 14.6!) if off an ATS win!
2-10-1 (Av. loss 14.5) ANY 7-dog off an ATS win.


I locked, loaded and pulled the trigger on this one but I sure would like to hear the reasons why anyone would take Cinci.

 

[ELVIS]

i like the over myself. gl.

 

[gman2]

chiefs havent been anything special on the road.

aside from a win of houston (which does nothing for me)

could have lost to baltimore (hall late kickoff return)
should have lost to green bay (came from 10+ down)
could have lost to oakland (half-yard away from overtime)

none of those above 3 were by a TD or more.

why be in a hurry to lay 6 points of road chalk in the nfl?
bengals playing very well of late, especially at home.
id rather be getting 7, but line at 6 seems to be doing its purpose, which is attracting a lot of chiefs money

 

[The Big Tease]

Yup...not to brag, but I do rather well in my NFL handicapping, and all I can tell you is that I live by a couple of rules.

1.) Stay away from road favorites completely. Some will cover, and most are covering this year I believe, but over the long haul these bets will kill you.

2.) If something looks too good, either bet the other side or do not bet the game.

3.) Do not ask a bad team to win you money, unless that team is playing another bad team.

If you eliminate those games, then you can get to handicapping!

I have heard a lot of posts that begin this lately....."I am done betting forever! I just got taken to the cleaners!" It is because teams like the Vikings and Colts looked too easy this week....well they are a bookies dream! A good NFL handicapper, avoids these games like the plague. Some sharps will take the other side, but most dont have the heart for it. I used to, but not anymore.

I am the biggest Chieft fan in the world, and I wouldnt touch this game with your money

 

[BigSix]

gman,

I have heard that road chalk are horrible bets but so far this season that theory has hurt more than a few cappers, wouldn't you say?

IMO, CIN only beat 2 good teams at home, BALT and SEA and really SEA beat themselves with 4 dropped TD passes. So I see it as CIN winning only one solid game at home.

I appreciate your input and whichever way you go....

 

[gman2]

big six:

i dont handicap with numbers, so i couldnt tell you what the numbers are on road favorites this year. all i know is that i would never be in a hurry to lay road points with any team, no matter how good. i will admit i was pretty impressed with kansas citys destruction of cleveland on sunday. browns were off a bye and still couldnt stop the chiefs.

we could go back and forth discussing this game. its super tough. the nfl is a strange game. the only thing i can say with conviction after years on these forums is that most people dont realize the value that points have in the nfl. by that i mean people look at kansas city laying 6 points and in their heads, theyre saying "hell, the chiefs are definitely a touchdown better than the bengals". and you know what - theyre right. they probably are. but for the chiefs to ever truly be out of the water and safely covering, theyre going to have to be up by more than 14 points. because the bengals offense has been scoring a lot of points lately and even if theyre down 10 in the 4th, theyre still capable of covering via the backdoor.

bengals have been putting up a lot of points at home this year. its just too hard for me to not look at the bengals as a live dog. i can easily see kansas city up by 7-10 most of the game and then winning 27-23. however, i am pizzed that idiot johnson made that stupid guarantee. they never come to fruition. but chiefs have been very mortal on the road this year. i wouldnt rush to lay points.

 

[MrChristo]

aside from a win of houston (which does nothing for me)

If the same (asumed poor) Houston team held Cinci on 4th and 1 they may well have upset the Bengals this week.
(Which, just as a side note I'm happy they didn't because I was on Cinci....Definately thought they were under-valued last week, but not so this game.)

And, Big Tease....I've had this 'argument' a number of times already (not with you ), but here goes....
..It's all well and good to have 'rules' you work with (and great if they work for you), but you can't simply dismiss road favs as $$ burners.

'CAP EACH GAME ON IT'S MERITS!!!

I don't care if a team is a 25 point fav on the road....If I think they will will by more I will play them.
I hear what you are saying about the Colts and Minni last week, but people were saying the same thing about Miami @ Jax and Minni @ Atl earlier in the season. (ie. Road fav looks too easy).

It's not just a case of looking at the game and saying "KC are the better team, Cinci are crap, lay the points!" :nono:
I think there is more than enough evidence to be on the Chiefs as road fav this week. Hope I'm right (obviously!), but I may well be wrong.
Either way, I'm happy to lay the 6.

Good Luck to us BigSix.

 

[BigSix]

I must admit most of KC's road wins have been pretty average (throwing out the HOU game);

OAK by 7
GB by 6
BAL by 7
HOU by 38 (sheesh)

but what stands out is all those wins have been by at least 6 points.

As for you MrChristo.....

I'll see ya at the window cashing that big fat winning ticket!
:toast:

 

[ocelot]

gman2 makes great case for caution with KC. Big favs will kill you at the end with the infamous PREVENT defense 30% of the time at least I'm sure.

I will be on the Bengals but hoping for a move to 7.

 

[The Big Tease]

All I am saying is that there is more to picking winners in the NFL then just the stats and numbers. Any bozo can look at a game and predict a winner against the spread. Most games on a Sunday, you will have a clear public side if you go strictly by the numbers. Favorites will eventually kill you in the NFL, that is the truth. Taking capable underdogs is the way to go. The only favorites I even consider are when it looks like the underdog may be getting too much credit.

In fact with all of this outright victory crap I hear about the Chiefs game....it has my thinking Chiefs. I still wont touch it though....

 

[BigSix]

Thanks for all the great info gentleman....

Now back to making my case for KC;

Starting cornerback Jeff Burris is out and his replacement is questionable.
RB Corey Dillon is listed as doubtful.

Borrowed from Thunder;

KANSAS CITY is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
KANSAS CITY is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) against AFC North division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season

 

[BigSix]

Come on Big Tease, join us.

If we go down, we go down together but the more likely scenairo is we win and we win together!

:grouphug:

 

[Wolftaz]

The Bengals will be better of if Burris' backup, Artrell Hawkins, can't go. T. Roberts and D. Weathersby are better cover corners than Hawkins.

 

[GM]

Dillon as doubtful or OUT helps the Bengals in my opinion. He hasn't played much this year, and he's been a complete distraction when he has been around. He asked to be traded (after the trade deadline had passed )...then the next week gets in a car accident on the way to the stadium and misses the game, even though he wasn't hurt. In the interim, Rudi Johnson has stepped in, and he led the league in rushing yards last week.

I can't figure out Dillon at all. He's there for all those losing seasons. Then Cinci starts to win and he's unhappy and wants out.

Like I said, the further away from the stadium he is on Sunday the better off the Bengals are.

 

[The Big Tease]

LOL! Not me man.....I will be at the game in my CHIEFS GEAR! I will be stressed enough as it is! I wont need any added motivation, but I will definatly be rooting for ya!

 

[Senor Capper]

I am the biggest Chieft fan in the world

2nd biggest !!!

 

[The Big Tease]

Yea I must be, I cant even spell the chit right!, LOL!

Go Chiefs!

 

[SALTY DOG]

Dillon is out this game because he is shooting another BUD
commercial...TRUE....the scene is set with make-up artist
surrounding Corey brushing his face and fluffing his hair...
Announcer....Corey, will you be able to go this week in this HUGE
game with the undefeated Chiefs???
Corey....say what, get outa my face man, I'm too busy, we're
playing the Chiefs???