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4* plays = 0-1 (-4.4 units)
2* plays = 15-7 (+16.5 units)
1* plays = 20-20 (+1.11 units)
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saturday 11/15/03.......3:30pm EST
3 units.......kansas state (-1) over nebraska
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saturday 11/15/03........3:00pm EST
2 units......northern illinois (-2.5) over toledo
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saturday 11/15/03........6:00pmp EST
1 unit......bowling green/kent state over 58.5
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saturday 11/15/03........1:00pm EST
1 unit.....eastern michigan (+10.5) over ball state
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saturday 11/15/03 12:30pm EST
1 unit......south carolina (+7) over florida (write-up below)
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saturday 11/15/03 3:30pm EST
1 unit.....purdue/ohio state under 40
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saturday 11/15/03 7:45pm EST
1 unit......alabama (+7.5) over lsu
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saturday 11/15/03 2nd half play
1 unit......texas tech (+10) over texas
horns capable of blowing tech out, but i dont see it happening.
raiders always a backdoor threat and they survived the texas
haymaker in the 1h. theyre still in the game and i think the game hangs around 14-17 points.
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kansas state......when constructing an argument, i think its important to maintain objectivity and concede a few points when certain things are just flat out against you. it allows for your view to gain credibility. so right off the bat, im going to make a few concessions to the opposing side. kansas state's schedule has been weak to this point and they have no wins that really stand out as quality wins so far. i simply cant argue that they do. that being said, i still think this is a solid kansas state team, and one that can be explosive when they get going. i dont see any explosiveness on the nebraska side. while much is made of the fact that kansas state has no real notable wins, nebraska hasnt exactly had a schedule of world beaters either. they won an ugly season opener against okie state and got blasted by texas in their only two games vs ranked teams. so the scheduling variable is a wash in this game. yeah snyder scheduled some mutants this year, but solich wasnt exactly playing a notre dame-esque schedule (troy state? utah state?). i really think the line tells me a lot here. vegas hangs a (-1) on this game with kansas state the opening favorite. nebraska is the higher ranked team (huskers #15, wildcats #25), nebraska has a better overall record, and the huskers are playing at home. yet kansas state is installed as the favorite. im not by any means saying kansas state is anti-public. thats stupid. its head scratching when some try to convince themselves that theyre fading the public on games where theres split money. i dont see there being a public side in this one. both teams are high profile teams and are attractive for their own reasons. but the line at kansas state (-1) tells me a lot. and i think kansas state is a much better and much more versatile than nebraska. lord has yet to show me he can win a big game. sproles ran well against a tough texas defense (24 for 128). im confident he can be effective vs the husker D. roberson has been a little interception prone, but ill still take my chances with him over lord any day. worth noting that wildcats have won the total yardage battle in every single one of their games this year. sometimes it means something, sometimes it doesnt. in their case, turnovers have done them in. if they take care of the ball, i dont see nebraska being able to stop the cat offense. kansas state for me. pretty strong play.
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northern illinois.....normally hellah and i concur on a lot of top mac plays, but i just gotta go the other way here. toledo has been a cash cow at the glass bowl the last few years, but im seeing niu as the superior team and i think they will get it done. theres a few fundamental things i cant overlook. toledo's defense is giving up way way too many yards the last few weeks. to give up almost 1,000 total yards and 67 points the last two weeks to buffalo and ball state -- thats just inexcusable and not conducive to winning big games. northern illinois gameplan is going to be pretty simple. lots of michael turner right from the get go. and thats another reason i cant back toledo here. the two teams that came out and aggressively ran the ball at toledo gave the rockets major problems (unlv and syracuse). a case can be made that those are teams from bigger conferences, but unlv sure as hell aint a world beater, and syracuse is a mid-level big east team. an upper-tier mac team should be able to win those game. cuse ran the sh1t out of the ball to the tune of 307 yds and 6.7 yds a carry. vegas ran the ball for a handful of yards. and even eastern michigan, who likes to run, had success with sherrell running it. the bowling green game seemed to serve as a wakeup call to the huskies. they tuned up nicely for this game with consecutive blowouts. turner really torched this toledo defense last year as well (41 carries for 213 yards). working against me in this one is toledo's seemingly impeccable record at the glass bowl the last few years. its not an easy place to win. rockets have beaten mac opponents and power conference foes alike. niu is going to have their hands full. but im confident that the bgsu game refocused them for the stretch run. turners torched this defense before. im expecting a sound performance from niu and a win and cover here. game will be won and lost on defense. both teams can score. but when it gets down to nut cutting time, northern illinois has shown the ability to get stops. toledo hasnt. thats just the way i see it.
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bowling green/kent state over 58.5........no earth-shattering logic here...bowling green was in a similar spot last year where they got bounced from the top 25 on the road, then came home and fine-tuned their offense by scoring 63 points the next time out. and with the way kent's matador defense is performing, bgsu is capable of dropping half a hundred on em. doesnt seem like the flashes are even trying to play defense at this point in the season. in their last 5 gms, theyve allowed an avg. of 37ppg. it seems kent is content to play an uptempo game where cribbs can run around create stuff and try to win shootouts. falcons clunker on national tv last week probably keeps this total under 60. should be a lot of points in this one, especially with two most athletic quarterbacks in the mac going head to head.
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eastern michigan......this truly qualifies as a game capped solely on "feel". im going simply on what i see. and last week, i was actually impressed with emu's energy in their game against central florida. for a team that had endured a rough season, had just fired their coach, and was playing in front of basically nobody in the stands- the eagles were flying around and playing enthused football. not to be hyperbolic, but it was really quite impressive. it seems like the players have responded to interim coach lavan. ive also been impressed with emu rb sherrell lately. i never knew this kid was that good. 6 straight 100 yd games, including 117 yds vs maryland and 187 yds vs bowling green, both of whom are in the top 25 in rushing defense. ball state has been prone to giving up lots of rushing yardage, and playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks probably wont do much to help. i think emu has a legit shot to win outright. if they bring the same energy that they brought vs central florida last week, they should cover with no problem. that being said, im keeping this play at one unit because, well.......this IS eastern michigan. but i really feel like this is a good play
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4* plays = 0-1 (-4.4 units)
2* plays = 15-7 (+16.5 units)
1* plays = 20-20 (+1.11 units)
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saturday 11/15/03.......3:30pm EST
3 units.......kansas state (-1) over nebraska
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saturday 11/15/03........3:00pm EST
2 units......northern illinois (-2.5) over toledo
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saturday 11/15/03........6:00pmp EST
1 unit......bowling green/kent state over 58.5
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saturday 11/15/03........1:00pm EST
1 unit.....eastern michigan (+10.5) over ball state
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saturday 11/15/03 12:30pm EST
1 unit......south carolina (+7) over florida (write-up below)
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saturday 11/15/03 3:30pm EST
1 unit.....purdue/ohio state under 40
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saturday 11/15/03 7:45pm EST
1 unit......alabama (+7.5) over lsu
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saturday 11/15/03 2nd half play
1 unit......texas tech (+10) over texas
horns capable of blowing tech out, but i dont see it happening.
raiders always a backdoor threat and they survived the texas
haymaker in the 1h. theyre still in the game and i think the game hangs around 14-17 points.
============================================
kansas state......when constructing an argument, i think its important to maintain objectivity and concede a few points when certain things are just flat out against you. it allows for your view to gain credibility. so right off the bat, im going to make a few concessions to the opposing side. kansas state's schedule has been weak to this point and they have no wins that really stand out as quality wins so far. i simply cant argue that they do. that being said, i still think this is a solid kansas state team, and one that can be explosive when they get going. i dont see any explosiveness on the nebraska side. while much is made of the fact that kansas state has no real notable wins, nebraska hasnt exactly had a schedule of world beaters either. they won an ugly season opener against okie state and got blasted by texas in their only two games vs ranked teams. so the scheduling variable is a wash in this game. yeah snyder scheduled some mutants this year, but solich wasnt exactly playing a notre dame-esque schedule (troy state? utah state?). i really think the line tells me a lot here. vegas hangs a (-1) on this game with kansas state the opening favorite. nebraska is the higher ranked team (huskers #15, wildcats #25), nebraska has a better overall record, and the huskers are playing at home. yet kansas state is installed as the favorite. im not by any means saying kansas state is anti-public. thats stupid. its head scratching when some try to convince themselves that theyre fading the public on games where theres split money. i dont see there being a public side in this one. both teams are high profile teams and are attractive for their own reasons. but the line at kansas state (-1) tells me a lot. and i think kansas state is a much better and much more versatile than nebraska. lord has yet to show me he can win a big game. sproles ran well against a tough texas defense (24 for 128). im confident he can be effective vs the husker D. roberson has been a little interception prone, but ill still take my chances with him over lord any day. worth noting that wildcats have won the total yardage battle in every single one of their games this year. sometimes it means something, sometimes it doesnt. in their case, turnovers have done them in. if they take care of the ball, i dont see nebraska being able to stop the cat offense. kansas state for me. pretty strong play.
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northern illinois.....normally hellah and i concur on a lot of top mac plays, but i just gotta go the other way here. toledo has been a cash cow at the glass bowl the last few years, but im seeing niu as the superior team and i think they will get it done. theres a few fundamental things i cant overlook. toledo's defense is giving up way way too many yards the last few weeks. to give up almost 1,000 total yards and 67 points the last two weeks to buffalo and ball state -- thats just inexcusable and not conducive to winning big games. northern illinois gameplan is going to be pretty simple. lots of michael turner right from the get go. and thats another reason i cant back toledo here. the two teams that came out and aggressively ran the ball at toledo gave the rockets major problems (unlv and syracuse). a case can be made that those are teams from bigger conferences, but unlv sure as hell aint a world beater, and syracuse is a mid-level big east team. an upper-tier mac team should be able to win those game. cuse ran the sh1t out of the ball to the tune of 307 yds and 6.7 yds a carry. vegas ran the ball for a handful of yards. and even eastern michigan, who likes to run, had success with sherrell running it. the bowling green game seemed to serve as a wakeup call to the huskies. they tuned up nicely for this game with consecutive blowouts. turner really torched this toledo defense last year as well (41 carries for 213 yards). working against me in this one is toledo's seemingly impeccable record at the glass bowl the last few years. its not an easy place to win. rockets have beaten mac opponents and power conference foes alike. niu is going to have their hands full. but im confident that the bgsu game refocused them for the stretch run. turners torched this defense before. im expecting a sound performance from niu and a win and cover here. game will be won and lost on defense. both teams can score. but when it gets down to nut cutting time, northern illinois has shown the ability to get stops. toledo hasnt. thats just the way i see it.
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bowling green/kent state over 58.5........no earth-shattering logic here...bowling green was in a similar spot last year where they got bounced from the top 25 on the road, then came home and fine-tuned their offense by scoring 63 points the next time out. and with the way kent's matador defense is performing, bgsu is capable of dropping half a hundred on em. doesnt seem like the flashes are even trying to play defense at this point in the season. in their last 5 gms, theyve allowed an avg. of 37ppg. it seems kent is content to play an uptempo game where cribbs can run around create stuff and try to win shootouts. falcons clunker on national tv last week probably keeps this total under 60. should be a lot of points in this one, especially with two most athletic quarterbacks in the mac going head to head.
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eastern michigan......this truly qualifies as a game capped solely on "feel". im going simply on what i see. and last week, i was actually impressed with emu's energy in their game against central florida. for a team that had endured a rough season, had just fired their coach, and was playing in front of basically nobody in the stands- the eagles were flying around and playing enthused football. not to be hyperbolic, but it was really quite impressive. it seems like the players have responded to interim coach lavan. ive also been impressed with emu rb sherrell lately. i never knew this kid was that good. 6 straight 100 yd games, including 117 yds vs maryland and 187 yds vs bowling green, both of whom are in the top 25 in rushing defense. ball state has been prone to giving up lots of rushing yardage, and playing their 3rd road game in as many weeks probably wont do much to help. i think emu has a legit shot to win outright. if they bring the same energy that they brought vs central florida last week, they should cover with no problem. that being said, im keeping this play at one unit because, well.......this IS eastern michigan. but i really feel like this is a good play
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