Did these write-ups for a mate of mine, so no reason not to post here.
Teams coming off a BYE who are 7+ fav's and the total is >42.5 are 11-0 SU with an average victory of 19.6 points!
They average over 38 points per game (The lowest team score has been 28 by Indi in 2002!) and the lowest margin of victory has been 7 points!!
Not surprisingly since teams av. 38.5ppg, this situation is 10-1 'over' since '98 (av. game score 57.4!!), and the only 'under' was 36-0 in Wk. 5 this season when the total was 45!!
Two teams are in this situation this week. Denver and New Orleans.
Denver -8.
Not only is that a great situation for Denver, it's also a week in which San Diego are being over rated. They upset Minnesota last week on the back of 162 yards rushing from Tomlinson and also 41 y.o. QB. Doug Flutie! Firstly it was Flutie's first start for the year so Minni didn't have the preparation for him (Denver certainly will), but more importantly Minni allow 5.3 yards per carry on the ground and have seemingly given up on playing defense for the year!! Denver allow only 96 yards per game rushing @ 3.9 yards per carry and have allowed an av. of 17.5 points @ home.
San Diego's defense is still a disaster. Even in victory last week they allowed 370 pass yards and allow 27 points per game...the lowest being 20 against Chicago and Cleveland, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.
Denver defeated San Diego at San Diego in week 2, 37-13, with running back Portis gaining 129 yards on only 12 carries before being injured before HT!!!
Some 'trends' to back this up:
Since '98 League is 11-20-1 (av. loss 13.9) away 7+ dog off ANY upset home win. [SD]
8-15 (Av. loss 15.1) if they were 3+ dog. [SD were +5.5 last week.]
2-8 (Av. loss 18.9!!) away 7+ dog off a 14+ ATS home win as 3+ dog. [SD beat the spread by 19.5 points last week.]
1-5 (Av. loss 20.0!!) if the total is >42.5. [Indicates teams defenses are BAD!]
Also: San Diego are 3-7 (av. loss 13.3) any 'dog off any upset win. [They score only 8.9 ppg!]
1-6 (Av. loss 14.0) if the upset was at home.
With Jake Plummer, Denver's first string QB back this week, everything points to Denver racking up and BIG score and winning comfortably.
New Orleans -8
This game is much in the same mold. Atlanta won their first game since wk.1 last week by upsetting the Giants as +10.5 dogs! However by looking deeper it is nowhere near as impressive as it seems. New York still gained over 330 yards (over 6.5 yards per carry on the ground!!) but turned the ball over 4 times!...Each time in scoring position.
Atlanta's QB was still only 9/23 for 65 yards!!, so N.O. will load up to stop the run this week and make Kittner pass the ball.
Again, as the everything has indicated so far, Atlanta's defense is horrible! They allow a league worse 262 yards per game passing and allow 27.8 ppg (over 30 per game if we discount last week's aboration!)
New Orleans defeated Atlanta 45-17 at Atlanta in Wk.7, passing for over 350 yards, and running for 150 more!
At first glance, New Orleans appears to have struggled offensively this season, but they have played a tough defensive scheldule this season. In the only 2 bad defenses they have played they scored 31 v. Houston and 45 v. Atlanta.
Some more 'trends': Atlanta 0-6 this number (Av. loss 23.2!) v. teams off a BYE!
Atlanta 3-7-1 off ANY upset win.
NO: 8-3 v. teams off an upset win. (7-0 since 2000...inc. Houston and Chicago this season)
4-0 if they play @ home. (Av. win 15.5!)
Again, I see no reason at all why New Orleans won't put up some big numbers and get another big win.
Kansas City -6
Kansas are the best team in the NFL, winning all 9 games so far and are 8-1 ATS, and while Cinci are much improved this year, they will be no match for the Chiefs. This game had the potential to be a let-down for K.C. facing an inferior team on the road, but their coach Vermeil has them extremely focused right now and they are playing the proverbial 'one game at a time'! Cincinnati have also 'guarenteed' their fans they will be the first to beat Kansas this season, so this will make sure KC are fully focused on this game.
Cinci allow 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, this will allow Holmes to have a big day for the Chiefs and also open up the passing game for Green, who is averaging nearly 8 yards per pass attempt!
This week is also a bad situation for Cinci:
Since '98 League is: 2-14-1 (av. loss 11.8) home 7- dog off home ATS win as 7- fav. [Cinci] (Cinci won by 7 last week as -4.5 fav's)
5-11-1 (Av. loss 7.3) home 7- dog off ANY 3- ats win.
1-8-1 (Av. loss 9.2) if they were favs.
0-5 (Av. loss 17.6!) if total is >44.5 (Allowing 40.0 points per game!!)
Last 3 years:
KC: 9-2 ATS off 2 or more straight wins.
5-1 v. AFC North.
5-1 v. <.500 teams in the second half of the season.
7-1 (Av. win 13.9) as fav off ANY 10+ ATS win. (Av. 30 points per game)
Cinci: 7-17-1 (Av. loss 10.5) as home 7- dog.
1-6-1 (Av. loss 14.6) off an ATS win.
2-10-1 (Av. loss 14.5) ANY 7- dog of an ATS win.
No let down for KC here, and the better team wins by a TD or more.
Good Luck all
EDIT: will also likely play tease: Miami/Balt under 40, Seattle/Det under 47, NO -2, Denver -2 @ 4.00 (+300)
EDIT 2: Currently seeing 55% of 'public' on Atlanta, and 58% on San Diego!!
Who would have guessed taking big fav's to be 'anti-public'
Teams coming off a BYE who are 7+ fav's and the total is >42.5 are 11-0 SU with an average victory of 19.6 points!
They average over 38 points per game (The lowest team score has been 28 by Indi in 2002!) and the lowest margin of victory has been 7 points!!
Not surprisingly since teams av. 38.5ppg, this situation is 10-1 'over' since '98 (av. game score 57.4!!), and the only 'under' was 36-0 in Wk. 5 this season when the total was 45!!
Two teams are in this situation this week. Denver and New Orleans.
Denver -8.
Not only is that a great situation for Denver, it's also a week in which San Diego are being over rated. They upset Minnesota last week on the back of 162 yards rushing from Tomlinson and also 41 y.o. QB. Doug Flutie! Firstly it was Flutie's first start for the year so Minni didn't have the preparation for him (Denver certainly will), but more importantly Minni allow 5.3 yards per carry on the ground and have seemingly given up on playing defense for the year!! Denver allow only 96 yards per game rushing @ 3.9 yards per carry and have allowed an av. of 17.5 points @ home.
San Diego's defense is still a disaster. Even in victory last week they allowed 370 pass yards and allow 27 points per game...the lowest being 20 against Chicago and Cleveland, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.
Denver defeated San Diego at San Diego in week 2, 37-13, with running back Portis gaining 129 yards on only 12 carries before being injured before HT!!!
Some 'trends' to back this up:
Since '98 League is 11-20-1 (av. loss 13.9) away 7+ dog off ANY upset home win. [SD]
8-15 (Av. loss 15.1) if they were 3+ dog. [SD were +5.5 last week.]
2-8 (Av. loss 18.9!!) away 7+ dog off a 14+ ATS home win as 3+ dog. [SD beat the spread by 19.5 points last week.]
1-5 (Av. loss 20.0!!) if the total is >42.5. [Indicates teams defenses are BAD!]
Also: San Diego are 3-7 (av. loss 13.3) any 'dog off any upset win. [They score only 8.9 ppg!]
1-6 (Av. loss 14.0) if the upset was at home.
With Jake Plummer, Denver's first string QB back this week, everything points to Denver racking up and BIG score and winning comfortably.
New Orleans -8
This game is much in the same mold. Atlanta won their first game since wk.1 last week by upsetting the Giants as +10.5 dogs! However by looking deeper it is nowhere near as impressive as it seems. New York still gained over 330 yards (over 6.5 yards per carry on the ground!!) but turned the ball over 4 times!...Each time in scoring position.
Atlanta's QB was still only 9/23 for 65 yards!!, so N.O. will load up to stop the run this week and make Kittner pass the ball.
Again, as the everything has indicated so far, Atlanta's defense is horrible! They allow a league worse 262 yards per game passing and allow 27.8 ppg (over 30 per game if we discount last week's aboration!)
New Orleans defeated Atlanta 45-17 at Atlanta in Wk.7, passing for over 350 yards, and running for 150 more!
At first glance, New Orleans appears to have struggled offensively this season, but they have played a tough defensive scheldule this season. In the only 2 bad defenses they have played they scored 31 v. Houston and 45 v. Atlanta.
Some more 'trends': Atlanta 0-6 this number (Av. loss 23.2!) v. teams off a BYE!
Atlanta 3-7-1 off ANY upset win.
NO: 8-3 v. teams off an upset win. (7-0 since 2000...inc. Houston and Chicago this season)
4-0 if they play @ home. (Av. win 15.5!)
Again, I see no reason at all why New Orleans won't put up some big numbers and get another big win.
Kansas City -6
Kansas are the best team in the NFL, winning all 9 games so far and are 8-1 ATS, and while Cinci are much improved this year, they will be no match for the Chiefs. This game had the potential to be a let-down for K.C. facing an inferior team on the road, but their coach Vermeil has them extremely focused right now and they are playing the proverbial 'one game at a time'! Cincinnati have also 'guarenteed' their fans they will be the first to beat Kansas this season, so this will make sure KC are fully focused on this game.
Cinci allow 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, this will allow Holmes to have a big day for the Chiefs and also open up the passing game for Green, who is averaging nearly 8 yards per pass attempt!
This week is also a bad situation for Cinci:
Since '98 League is: 2-14-1 (av. loss 11.8) home 7- dog off home ATS win as 7- fav. [Cinci] (Cinci won by 7 last week as -4.5 fav's)
5-11-1 (Av. loss 7.3) home 7- dog off ANY 3- ats win.
1-8-1 (Av. loss 9.2) if they were favs.
0-5 (Av. loss 17.6!) if total is >44.5 (Allowing 40.0 points per game!!)
Last 3 years:
KC: 9-2 ATS off 2 or more straight wins.
5-1 v. AFC North.
5-1 v. <.500 teams in the second half of the season.
7-1 (Av. win 13.9) as fav off ANY 10+ ATS win. (Av. 30 points per game)
Cinci: 7-17-1 (Av. loss 10.5) as home 7- dog.
1-6-1 (Av. loss 14.6) off an ATS win.
2-10-1 (Av. loss 14.5) ANY 7- dog of an ATS win.
No let down for KC here, and the better team wins by a TD or more.
Good Luck all
EDIT: will also likely play tease: Miami/Balt under 40, Seattle/Det under 47, NO -2, Denver -2 @ 4.00 (+300)
EDIT 2: Currently seeing 55% of 'public' on Atlanta, and 58% on San Diego!!
Who would have guessed taking big fav's to be 'anti-public'
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