Rivalry Week, early thoughts

[Master Capper]

Input appreciated!!!


101 MARSHALL
7:30 PM

102 C. FLORIDA

103 TCU
7:30 PM

104 SOUTHERN MISS 3 4

Added Games
105 MIDDLE TENN. ST.
7:00 PM

106 ARKANSAS ST.



107 BOISE ST. 7? 8
9:00 PM

108 FRESNO ST.

109 WEST VIRGINIA 1?
12:00 PM

110 SYRACUSE

111 GEORGIA TECH
12:00 PM

112 VIRGINIA 7

113 BOSTON COLLEGE
12:00 PM

114 VIRGINIA TECH 15

115 OHIO ST.
12:00 PM

116 MICHIGAN 7 6?

117 PENN ST.
12:00 PM

118 MICHIGAN ST. 4

119 IOWA
12:00 PM

120 WISCONSIN 1 2

121 DUKE
12:00 PM

122 N. CAROLINA 6

123 RUTGERS
12:00 PM

124 MIAMI-FLORIDA

125 CLEMSON
12:30 PM

126 S. CAROLINA 1?

127 VANDERBILT
12:30 PM

128 TENNESSEE 20?

129 PITTSBURGH 15
1:00 PM

130 TEMPLE

131 PURDUE 24?
1:00 PM

132 INDIANA

133 BOWLING GREEN 14?
1:00 PM

134 BALL ST.

135 NORTHWESTERN 3?
1:00 PM

136 ILLINOIS

137 MARYLAND Pk 1
1:00 PM

138 N. CAROLINA ST.

139 C. MICHIGAN
1:30 PM

140 NAVY 20

141 MIAMI-OHIO 25
2:00 PM

142 OHIO U.

143 E. MICHIGAN
2:00 PM

144 NORTHERN ILL. 29

145 CINCINNATI
2:00 PM

146 MEMPHIS 11?

147 ALABAMA
2:00 PM

148 AUBURN 7?

149 LSU 6?
2:00 PM

150 MISSISSIPPI

151 MISSISSIPPI ST.
2:00 PM

152 ARKANSAS 27?

153 E. CAROLINA
2:30 PM

154 TULANE

155 IOWA ST.
2:00 PM

156 KANSAS

157 MISSOURI
2:00 PM

158 KANSAS ST. 15?

159 OKLAHOMA 18 19
2:00 PM

160 TEXAS TECH

161 OKLAHOMA ST. 26?
2:00 PM

162 BAYLOR

163 HOUSTON
3:00 PM

164 LOUISVILLE 11?

165 TEXAS EL-PASO
3:00 PM

166 RICE 15?

167 NEW MEXICO 6
3:00 PM

168 WYOMING

169 UTAH 7?
3:00 PM

170 BRIGHAM YOUNG

171 COLORADO ST. 6?
3:00 PM

172 NEV. LAS VEGAS

173 TULSA 7? 8
3:00 PM

174 SAN JOSE ST.

175 WASHINGTON ST.
3:30 PM

176 WASHINGTON

177 OREGON ST.
3:30 PM

178 OREGON

179 CALIFORNIA
3:30 PM

180 STANFORD

181 UCLA
3:30 PM

182 SOUTHERN CAL

183 BUFFALO
4:00 PM

184 KENT ST.

185 WESTERN MICH
7:00 PM

186 TOLEDO

187 KENTUCKY
7:00 PM

188 GEORGIA 17?

189 UAB
7:00 PM

190 SOUTH FLORIDA 7

191 AIR FORCE 4
9:00 PM

192 SAN DIEGO ST.

193 ARMY
11:00 PM

194 HAWAII 26?

Added Games
195 UTAH ST.
5:00 PM

196 IDAHO

197 UL MONROE
7:00 PM

198 TROY STATE 14?

 

[Master Capper]

TCU
Fresno
WVU
Ohio State
Mich State
Wisky
South Carolina
NW
Navy
Ohio U
Ole miss
Mizzou
Tex Tech
Okie State
Wyo
Oreg
Hawaii

early leans

 

[buddy]

After last weeks "Battle Of The Gladiators", I can't see how Ohio State has enough ooomph left to do battle with the Wolverines.

Ohio State played one, hard fought, exhausting game.

Do 20 year olds get tired?

 

[spang]

E. Mich +29
Mich St.-4

 

[gman2]

eastern michigan line looks wacked. i was expecting them to be +22 or +23. im going to grab em at +29

 

[Joe De]

probably my best pick could be Northwestern...i predicted 3 weeks ago that they would beat Penn st and lose to michigan(no brainer)...but stay in the bowl play...3' appears to to be a modest number to lay....


any thoughts?

 

[Master Capper]

AKRON, Ohio -- Lee Owens has been removed as football coach at Akron after nine years Sunday following a 7-5 season.


Owens was reassigned and will assist the university in fund raising, public relations and student recruitment, the school said.


Owens had a 40-61 record with the Zips, including 31-41 in the Mid-American Conference. They were 5-3 this season in the MAC, including a 35-28 victory over Ohio on Saturday.


"It is time to seek out new leadership that will accelerate our progress toward creating the outstanding football program that our university and our community deserve and will support," athletic director Mike Thomas said.


Owens came to Akron from Ohio State, where he coached offensive tackles and tight ends.

 

[ajoytoy]

homer play MC, but the Pack will win on saturday....have not lost a home game yet this year....know they can get the Gator with it and it's Rivers and all the Sr.'s LAST GAME!

will update injuries in my thread as i get 'em


gl on your plays this week

(btw, sorry bout the UVA play last week )

 

[Master Capper]

Looks good ajoytoy, hope Rivers goes wild on Terps!


INJURIES OF NOTE - Washington State QB Matt Kegel hurt his throwing shoulder against UCLA and practiced very little during the week. He was just 5 of 11 for 77 yds and WSU was fortunate to be tied at 10 as they blocked a punt setting up a 1 yd TD drive for their TD. Kegel took himself out of the game and backup Josh Swogger hit 14 of 20 for 207 yds. WSU got ahead on a 39 yd int return for a TD and then used 2 deep passes to get the win. The Cougars got the frontdoor cover on a 15 yd TD run by Green with 4:23 left to pull out a 15 point win laying 13...

Middle Tennessee lost their top two QB's vs Louisiana-Lft but 3rd stringer Josh Harris hit a respectable 23 of 36 for 284 yds. The game was tied 24-24 at the end of regulation and went 4 OT's resulting in a misleading 57-51 final. ULL did finish with a 33-22 FD edge and 574-405 yd edge...

Utah State did trail Troy State 17-14 at the half but the key was when their star QB, Travis Cox, was injured on the first play of the 2H. After he went out, backup QB Bryan Black struggled hitting 7 of 17 passes for 56 yds with 3 int's and Utah St turned it over six times in the 2H. In the 2H the first fumble led to a TSU 17 yd TD drive, they were int'd at their own 44, fumbled at the TSU 42, int'd at the TSU 1, fumbled at the TSU 18, SOD at the TSU 46 and int'd in the EZ and came up short, 23-14...

The last two years Kansas has been a different team with Bill Whittemore at QB than without him. That changed when frosh Adam Barmann took off his redshirt vs Texas A&M and KU's offense has been probably 80% as effective with Barmann at the controls. KU settled for a 21 yd FG early in the 3Q vs Oklahoma St and trailed just 16-13 but Barmann was injured and OSU would score TD's on their next 4 poss to not only get ahead of the spread but make it 44-13. Third string QB Luke did hit 22 of 38 for 193 yds and led a 75 yd 20 play drive that had a 1st & goal at the 1 but he was int'd in the EZ and later led a 48 yd drive for a TD with :50 left in the game but OSU got the cover. Barmann and Whittemore are expected to be available this week...

Louisville was without top RB Eric Shelton who is likely out for this week as well. Lionel Gates filled in for him and rushed for 48 yds on 14 carries. UL came in #5 in the NCAA in total offense with 482 ypg but Joe Lee Dunn's ever-improving Memphis D held them to 216 total yds as Memphis won for the 7th time in the season for the first time since 1976. Memphis dominated the game with 443 yds and finished the game at the UL 1 yd line and could have extended its 37-7 lead.

 

[Blackman]

Hey I'm new to the board - have followed a lot of you guys throughout the year and figured it's about time I started to contribute.

Immediently that TCU line popped out at me. I realize that they are underdogs since they are on the road, but I really think they will be fighting hard for the BCS possiblity. If anything else this is a karma play in my mind - the BCS won't get off the hook that easy by having TCU lose and being able to justify not putting them in a bowl. Do I think that TCU is a great team - no. In fact if you put them on the field vs USC, LSU, OSU, Michigan or any of the other teams nera them in the rankings I'd expect them to lose by 21+. But with that being said, they are playing So. Miss, not a top BCS contender. With so much on the line for TCU, I think this is a strong play to be getting points. This play is worth a serious look if nothing else.

Other leans (off the top of my head seeing the lines just now):
West Virginia
Michigan
Va Tech
Houston


Just wanted to say that I really appreciate all the analysis people share on this board - lot of great takes on games out there.

 

[Master Capper]

Blackman, very good write up on TCU nice!!





TGS: Looking for an angle
November 17, 2003
Gary Olshan
The Gold Sheet

Middle Tennessee State at ARKANSAS STATE (Thursday night)...Arkansas State is an impressive 8-2 last 10 as Sun Belt dog. MTS just 1-4 last 5 as road chalk.

Tcu at SOUTHERN MISS (Thursday night)...USM in serious triple revenge mode vs. TCU squad that embarrassed Golden Eagles (worst loss since ?96!) in 37-7 Fort Worth bashing LY. And USM still upset that rather than taking knee, Frogs starting RB Hobbs scored on 13-yd. run with just 42 secs. left and 30-7 lead.

Oklahoma State at BAYLOR...OSU is 6-1-1 vs. spread last 8 in series, including 63-28 thumping LY. Cowboy HC Les Miles emptied bench after building 63-14 lead in 3rd Q.

Kentucky at GEORGIA...UK is nifty 14-5 vs. spread last 19 in SEC action. Wildcats led 24-21 at H before giving up 31 unanswered points in final 2 Qs of 52-24 setback LY at Lexington.

Iowa State at KANSAS...Resurgent KU fired-up for this rematch after getting humiliated in a pair of 42-pt. losses in last 2 series clashes. Improved Jayhawks want to make ISU pay for LY. Cyclones scored TD on 16-yd. run instead of taking knee with only 6 secs. remaining. ISU only 1-12 vs. line last 13 on board overall.

Ohio State at MICHIGAN...UM in rare-double revenge mode. Wolverine QB Navarre looking for some redemption after failing to generate a TD and fumbling on OSU 35-yd. line with 2 mins. left and then throwing int. in end zone on game?s final play LY at Columbus to give Buckeyes BCS title game.

Duke at NORTH CAROLINA...UNC has won and covered 6 straight in series, but Tar Heels needed last-second 47-yd. FG to pull out 23-21 victory LY.

Miami-Ohio at OHIO...Miami has won and covered 7 of past 8 in series. And RedHawks toyed with Bobcats LY, mounting 28-7 lead at half in 38-20 victory.

West Virginia at SYRACUSE...Syracuse in retaliatory mood following painful 34-7 blowout loss at WV LY. Orange felt Mountaineers ?rubbed it in their faces? when WV scored TD on 1-yd. run with just 15 ticks on clock. And ?Cuse QB R.J. Anderson was sidelined in 3rd Q due to injury.

Pittsburgh at TEMPLE...Pitt?which was outgained 341-189?claimed it lacked any intensity in LY?s 29-22 win vs. Temple, with game sandwiched between Virginia Tech & Miami-Florida. Owls just 6-14 as home dog last 5+Ys.

Colorado State at UNLV...CSU (17-pt. chalk) calling this one its biggest payback game of year after Rams were shocked by UNLV in 36-33 upset loss LY. After all, CSU was riding 6-game win streak & had beaten Rebels in 6 straight meetings.


Georgia Tech at VIRGINIA..Host has won and covered 5 straight in series. UVA looking for fast start after falling behind 23-0 at H of 23-15 loss at GT LY. Cav QB Schaub completed 41 of 59 for 373 yds., but Engineers capitalized on banged-up UVA front 7, rushing for 221 yds.

Boise State at FRESNO STATE...MAJOR revenge game for Fresno State following LY?s totally humiliating 67-21 bashing at Boise (worst loss since 62-0 shutout at Auburn in ?96). Bulldogs angrily recall how Bronco starting QB Dinwiddie tossed TD pass in middle of 4th Q with 54-21 lead. FSU mentor Hill was visibly upset (frequently) in this ESPN-televised contest.

Rutgers at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Rutgers loaded with Floridians (22 on roster) under HC Schiano, who has been exploiting recruiting inroads made while he served as Hurricane assistant before taking over Scarlet Knights in ?01. Several of Rutgers top skill performers making homecoming trip, including QB Hart (So. Coral Springs), WR Moses (Delray Beach) and RB Facyson (Ft. Lauderdale).

Air Force at SAN DIEGO STATE...AF (16-point fav.) on mission after stunning 38-34 home upset at hands of SDS in LY?s season finale. Falcons?who substantially outgained Aztecs 538 298?uncharacteristically blew 27-17 4th-Q lead, with State scoring winning TD with :58 on clock.

 

[Master Capper]

Just my opinion but if Ohio Sate beats Michigan then I believe they have the right to defend their title against Okie if they also win out. I live in Ohio but in no way am I a Buckeye fan, more than likely I will be rooting for the Maize and blue on Saturday, but I really dont see where the backers of So Cal can say they deserve a shot more than OSU or LSU? I have read a few post here saying that OSU played a weak out of conf schedule which is not entirely true since more than likely 2 out of the 4 teams they played out of conf will be going to a bowl and Washington was hyped going into the year. So Cal's non conference schedule shows that only 2 out of 4 of their opponets will be going to a bowl and it could be none or one depending on what Hawaii and Auburn do the rest of the way out. As far as USC fans saying that the Big 10 is down this year, that may be true but the conf is still ranked higher than the PAC 10 (see below). I think if So Cal, OSU and LSU all win out then all three should get a shot but with the current system we are in there is no shot at that and I agree with the So Cal backers that there is definitly a east coast bias to the Pac 10 come football season. Until we can reach a true football playoff system then we will always have these arguments but lets atleast wait until all the regular season has been played out all three teams have games that could trip them up, So Cal still has Oreg St, Buckeyes have Mich and LSU has Ole Miss and possibly Georgia.


1 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 79.52 78.28 ( 1) 12
2 BIG 12 (A) = 78.34 78.05 ( 2) 12
3 BIG TEN (A) = 77.31 75.89 ( 3) 11
4 PAC-10 (A) = 75.34 75.77 ( 4) 10
5 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 74.82 74.39 ( 5) 9
6 BIG EAST (A) = 74.31 73.69 ( 7) 8
7 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 74.14 74.35 ( 6) 8
8 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 70.62 70.20 ( 8) 4
9 CONFERENCE USA (A) = 66.21 65.41 ( 9) 11
10 MID-AMERICAN (A) = 64.36 65.26 ( 10) 14
11 WESTERN ATHLETIC (A) = 64.33 63.61 ( 11) 10

 

[Blackman]

I completely agree Master Capper - the Pac Ten is weak this year in my opinion and the "OSU hasn't played anyone" arguement doesn't hold much weight with me.

Also, I think it is to the advantage of the Big Ten and Pac Ten that they do not have title games - these SEC teams get set up for a loss with all of these tough games.

Sorry for the rant in your thread but until a playoff system is devised we will have these arguements every year.

 

[Master Capper]

Games with the biggest deviant from the opening line to Sagarain Rankings: Opening Line 1st, Sagarin Prediction 2nd

TCU-3, pk
Gtech-7, 3
BC-15, 12.5
Mich State-4, 14
Tenn-20.5, 26
Pitt-15, 18
NW-3.5, 10
Miami Ohio-25, 30
North ILL-29, 24.5
LSU-6.5, 2
Kansas St-15.5, 10
Okl-18, 14
Okie State-26.5, 21
Lou-11.5, 8
Col St-6.5, 3
Tulsa-7.5, 11
Cal-8.5, 3
Toledo-14, 11
Georgia-18.5, 26
S Fla-7, 4
Troy St-15, 23

 

[USC Gamecock]

Here is some early injury info for the upcoming SCAR/CLEMSON game if anybody cares:

FR RB Demetris Summers will play. Don't believe it if you hear something different.

SR OL Travelle Wharton (6'3"/315) will play. Travelle is crucial to SC being able to run the ball on Clemson. He was quoted today as saying "there does not exist a scenario in which I wouldn't play." Bottom line is that he is a senior and this is his last game.

JR OL (center) John Strickland (6'5"/304) probably will NOT play as of today. I'll keep everybody posted on his status as the week goes on. John is also very integral in SCAR's running game.

Updates to follow as I get them.

 

[Master Capper]

Thanks Gamecock, I am slightly surprised that Summers will be playing, the injury against Arky looked severe. If he plays I wonder how hesitant he will be to hit the holes full speed?

 

[Joe De]

here is a piece of worthless information:

Who is the ONLY team that nearly beat oklahoma by 7 points over the last 25 games..... AND CONTAINED THEM TO ONLY 20 POINTS. (no other team came this close by the way)


ALABAMA

AND CAN YOU BELIEVE ALABAMA IS GETTING 8 POINTS AT aUBURN sATURDAY.......

Mastercapper ..can you find the trends on these two teams playing together over the last 10 years,...i should know but i'm braindead tonite..thx

 

[Joe De]

mc... find the Alabama/auburn trends for 10 years....not ala/OU

 

[waymac]

Joe De:

Auburn has avg 13.4 pts over last 5 years. Visitor is 7-1 ATS

auburn pts-alab pts
17-7 +10.5 @ Alabama win 2002
7-31 -3 home loss 2001
9-0 -1 @ Ala win 2000
17-28 +10 home loss 1999
17-31 +4 @ Ala loss 1998

Only red flag I have on this game is Alabama goes to Hawaii next week and maybe looking forward to vacation. But this is a rivalry game; but last year they were in same position playing at home before hawaii and were 10.5 pt favorites and lost 17-7.

 

[Joe De]

thx waymac.....that's exactly what i was looking for...

8 points in this matchup is too many ...brody croyle will socre many points against auburn....thx again