capping games (osu mich)

[i'm not the one]

i have a gamblers mentality and with that comes not having a fav team........if you gamble you can like teams but if you have a fav team u will bet with your heart and not with your head. that being said, i watch all games from all conferences and i view games without bias and i cap a game with who i think can win OR cover the spot in a particular game. this week the line is set to +7 for oh st. listen to me OHIO ST IS NOT A MEMBER OF THE SEC, BIG 12, PAC 10 OR ANY OTHER CONFERENCE.......NEITHER IS MICH....... you dont' get that many offensive performances that you get in sunny cal. or fla. where its damn 70-80 degrees all the time and you can move freely and gun the ball downfield on a dime. you are playing in cold rugged weather where the fans players and surrounding people come to expect defense, special teams, and turnovers. that is how games are won in this conference. of couse u say osu is lucky , but really 20 wins out of 22......????? how does good poker players win all the time lucky??? no, just like osu its the style they play and osu has that style of grinding it out down to a tee.

mich has rattled off some inpressive games and it came after the minny comeback win.........mich now belives they can win and being at home for a shot at the big ten who knows??? all i know is you CAN NOT look at past teams that mich beat up on or who osu barely got by..........its all meaningless info......if you look at common opp. in conference two come straight to mind......osu killed mich st as did mich..........osu dominated iowa and mich lost to iowa........does that mean anything.......perhaps and perhaps not, this is a totally different game for all the marbles and face it osu did it last yr and since tressel came to town mich just looks baffled when they play them.......ok osu's team is NOT as good as it was last yr.......but then again it IS better then two yrs ago when they too went into the big house and stunned mich....so wheres the defense.......i don't know if oh st has ever beat mich three straight times espically 2-3 in the big house????

fact is.......osu is the defending national champion if lsu or usc wants to get in don't lose and have a better record then the champs.........oaklahoma did, if you can't be better NOT equal to the champs you don't get a shot at the title........screw schedule screw everything else..........i firmly belive tcu should be number 2......why not they are undefeated????

fact is with this system there will always be conterversy with the title game unless there are two undefeated teams and they come out of the big 12, pac 10, sec, or big 10.....other confercnces get shit on and thats just the way it is until something is changed


as for this weekend the defending champs get 7 and are something like 2-1........i will not bet this game or any other......i am done forever i am going to be in osu for a party and drinking and having fun.......rather then hoping i get a win or a cover...i have done it for 8yrs and its just not worth it to me anymore......i have to grow up and not waste money just to pass time to make a game more interesting to watch......its hard to do, i think a team is goin to win and i still want to bet them....i would love to bet osu +200 or +7 because that is who i am leaning to right now......but as my past indictaes if i win i will lose it on the next game or so on, or i could just lose that game alltoghter......in the end i always lose it all and its just stupid to go on, for me (there are some damn good cappers in the place that win on a reg. basis and i wish i was as good as them or had the money mgmt. that they had, but i dont'.........like most others after a win you feel the need for greed and you bet games you dont' like or games you think you like...........but back to the tread at hand.....

they put this line up for a reason

mich rolling.........osu going for 3 in a row vs mich (unheard of).......osu barly getting by, but gets by ALMOST every week...........and don't think that the osu team you seen vs purdue will be anyting like the team you see this weekend.......tressle is not this good becasue he doesn't know what he is doing........

be careful guys be very careful

 

[The Big Tease]

bottom line....this line is inflated because of the people on this site saying that Ohio State doesnt have a chance. The line would be 4 or 4.5 if it were based solely on stats and home field advantage, but if this line were any smaller the world would be on michigan

 

[Nickelback]

bottom line....this line is inflated because of the people on this site saying that Ohio State doesnt have a chance. The line would be 4 or 4.5 if it were based solely on stats and home field advantage, but if this line were any smaller the world would be on michigan

1. Vegas doesn't give a crap what you or I or anyone on this site think about Ohio State having a chance. Our money doesn't scare them. Vegas won't adjust their line based on this site's thoughts.

2. I thought the line should have been lower as well until I looked at a couple different rating systems including Sagarin and Massey (which are for the most part are very very close to the lines Vegas releases). Both predictors from their systems indicated that Michigan should be roughly a TD favorite so no, this line isn't off. Its right on the money and very sharp. Check it out yourself if you wish.

 

[The Big Tease]

I should rephrase what i said....I meant people LIKE the people on this site. What I meant is that everyone in the world is saying that Ohio State is finally going to get what is coming to them this Saturday. If the line were 4, the world would be on Michigan. They had to inflate it so they can get equal action. And yes it is inflated.

 

[gman2]

what does it say for the defending national champs that the only way they can get action ON them is to INFLATE in the line in their favor? :shrug:

 

[The Big Tease]

it says the same thing that it has for 2 years now! it was inflated the last time we were supposed to get blown out, and we won outright....it doesnt bother me anymore. in fact i think that is what keeps these guys going. we will see come saturday

 

[gman2]

tease:

youre one of my favorite posters on the site.
please keep it that way by refraining from using the "we" pronoun.

btw- this is my main gripe with ohio state. yea, they keep winning and that is all that counts but:

what does it say about the coaching staff and the recruiting that they have their pick of the cream of the high school crop in the most talent-laden region (midwest) in the country. they get all kinds of blue chip athletes. theyve got their ENTIRE offense back from last year.

and they cant score an offensive td in 3 gms, and they cant score in general.

that to me is either an indictment of the recruiting or its on the coaching staff.

my god, bj sander is looking like the best player on the entire roster, lol.

 

[Nickelback]

I should rephrase what i said....I meant people LIKE the people on this site. What I meant is that everyone in the world is saying that Ohio State is finally going to get what is coming to them this Saturday. If the line were 4, the world would be on Michigan. They had to inflate it so they can get equal action. And yes it is inflated.

No my friend, the line is NOT inflated. . . but you believe what you want and I'll let the rating systems speak for my view. At first I thought exactly like you. . . but I was wrong. . .

The reason you may feel this way is what you THOUGHT the line would be (along with those on this site) instead of looking at the rating systems that I have which are always so very close to the Vegas opening lines. Unfortunately you are not smart enough to determine the opening lines yourself (relax, I'm not either! I already said I thought the line would open around the number that you indicated).

I'm probably beating a dead horse and that's fine. . . but anybody trying to find value by taking Ohio State because they initially had determined themselves that the line should have been only 4 to 5 is wrong. As gman already stated, the line for this huge game is sharp as it usually is.

 

[The Big Tease]

gman: Likewise.....you are one of my favorite posters here. I can always count on intelligent debate with you with good reasons. When I say "we" I wasnt including you. I guess I get overly attached to my team, and I mean "myself" and the Buckeyes as "we". Maybe that is retarded, but tell that to my voice that still hasnt come back yet. I am a pretty damn good 12th man on gameday!

Nickel: It is almost virtually impossible to use a ratings system to determine a line. It can give you an idea of how a line will open, but as I am sure (at least I hope) you know....lines are only made on public perception.
If that isnt the case....how do you explain Purdue going on the road to Ann Arbor as a 4.5 dog, then going to Ohio Stadium as a 3.5 dog? According to those lines (and I know they are a couple weeks apart) they say that Michigan is a point better than Ohio State (which I believe to be accurate no matter what any computer ratings poll shows) The line for this game would likely be Michigan -4.5 if creating a line were so easy. Unfortunatly it isnt that easy. Computer Polls are so variant that it is impossible to use them to say, black or white, what a line would be. The numbers I use say that Michigans home field advantage is about 10 points! Thats another factor.....not every team has the same home field advantage. You cant just simply add 3 points. Michigan actually has one of the larger home field advantages in college football, BUT Vegas never accounts for that. The past lines do not support that they account for that.

Ask 50 people what they thought the line would be in this game. Usually that is a tell-tale idea on how to determine a Vegas line before it comes out. Most people would tell you 4-5. So why does Vegas come out with 6.5-7? Because it is inflated so they can get Ohio State money. This is my opinion.....and not saying that I am 100% right, but I am sure that I would have my backers as well. It is pretty debatable.

Normally in this situation.....I would be scared to bet the game as I think Vegas is trying to dictate where I bet my money. They want as much Ohio State money as they can get because they know the public perception of how Michigan will kill Ohio State. And to be honest...that is why you have a 6.5 line. You are already past the key number of 4, so going to 6.5 and staying away from 7 really doesnt add much risk. I am going to buy the half point and slam it...I dont think this one gets out of reach.

 

[Wonderdog]

tressle is not this good becasue he doesn't know what he is doing........

GEE whare did you come up with this????????
Im not a Ohio St Fan unless I have the Bucks on them.
So how in the world you can say that. All the guy dose is win.win.win.

Give the guy his due credit.
The game is a tough call, Ill play NW over Ill
Good Luck Da Dog