skillrules....ufc this weekend
- Thread starter gardenweasel
- Start date
Hey weasel, I was just looking at the lines closely a few minutes ago. No lines stand out as being particularly off, but looking at underdogs as there are always a minimum of two upsets in EVERY UFC.
Ive got a few leans, but need to call some people. There are a few things:
Cabbage has basically agreed to a standup fight. It will be like an unwritten rule, this obviously helps Tank as he is too easy on the ground.
Trigg might have a little better chance than the 3-1 dog that he is. But RAW has trouble with being inactive and then fighting the best. Also Hughes is so damned strong its not funny.
I want to find out what the real game plans are, not what the fighters tell the media. Also, unless you really see a line that stands out, its best to wait until after the weigh-ins. You find out who is dialed in and who had to cut, which can be a killer. Every UFC I find a fight that I switch on based on the weigh-ins and have been successful.
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Adding this, one fight that really stands out is Ricco v. Rizzo. Pedro is so susceptible to being taken down and he cuts so easy I see Ricco winning and being favored by a smaller margin than he should be. Only thing I need to see is if Rod has continued to improve his shape and quickness since the last surgery.
Also, I have some contacts within camps of the lesser known fighters. They are Hesitating to put up lines on them, but when they do, I have a feeling they might be off by 30% or more. Its pretty easy for the books to make good lines on the fighters that have been in the major events numerous times, but mistakes are made on the others.
Ive got a few leans, but need to call some people. There are a few things:
Cabbage has basically agreed to a standup fight. It will be like an unwritten rule, this obviously helps Tank as he is too easy on the ground.
Trigg might have a little better chance than the 3-1 dog that he is. But RAW has trouble with being inactive and then fighting the best. Also Hughes is so damned strong its not funny.
I want to find out what the real game plans are, not what the fighters tell the media. Also, unless you really see a line that stands out, its best to wait until after the weigh-ins. You find out who is dialed in and who had to cut, which can be a killer. Every UFC I find a fight that I switch on based on the weigh-ins and have been successful.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Adding this, one fight that really stands out is Ricco v. Rizzo. Pedro is so susceptible to being taken down and he cuts so easy I see Ricco winning and being favored by a smaller margin than he should be. Only thing I need to see is if Rod has continued to improve his shape and quickness since the last surgery.
Also, I have some contacts within camps of the lesser known fighters. They are Hesitating to put up lines on them, but when they do, I have a feeling they might be off by 30% or more. Its pretty easy for the books to make good lines on the fighters that have been in the major events numerous times, but mistakes are made on the others.
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appreciated
appreciated
should be interesting...i may have a little something on the latin fury ppv boxing card saturday night....if the linesmaker cooperates....
if something looks remotely interesting,even just a lean,pop over to off the wall and slap it up there....maybe we can generate a little interest in mma wagering...
g.l.
appreciated
should be interesting...i may have a little something on the latin fury ppv boxing card saturday night....if the linesmaker cooperates....
if something looks remotely interesting,even just a lean,pop over to off the wall and slap it up there....maybe we can generate a little interest in mma wagering...
g.l.
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I follow UFC very closely--have been backstage at many events--etc..
I think Skills is on target.
Tank Abbott is the best best-- he is older and not in the best shape but he has trained a bit for this fight.He hits hard and can KO anyone if he connects.
Trigg vs Hughes -- I am close to the rAw team--yet I agree again with Skills-- Trigg is good but can he compete with Hughes who is a monster-- I am not sure.Cant lay the money with Hughes as he is too big a favorite--Trigg's trainer thinks he has a shot because you only have to train for a couple things with Hughes-- big takedowns and Ground and pound-- he isnt a threat from his feet and he isnt a submission threat.
All in all getting +220 on Trigg is most likely the best value--but even I am having a hard time seeing him beating Hughes.
I wil be talking to guys there throughout the week and will be able to give some insight on how the fighters look and act the next few days.
I think Skills is on target.
Tank Abbott is the best best-- he is older and not in the best shape but he has trained a bit for this fight.He hits hard and can KO anyone if he connects.
Trigg vs Hughes -- I am close to the rAw team--yet I agree again with Skills-- Trigg is good but can he compete with Hughes who is a monster-- I am not sure.Cant lay the money with Hughes as he is too big a favorite--Trigg's trainer thinks he has a shot because you only have to train for a couple things with Hughes-- big takedowns and Ground and pound-- he isnt a threat from his feet and he isnt a submission threat.
All in all getting +220 on Trigg is most likely the best value--but even I am having a hard time seeing him beating Hughes.
I wil be talking to guys there throughout the week and will be able to give some insight on how the fighters look and act the next few days.
great stuff guys...
great stuff guys...
i have a feeling that this thread might end up in the " off the wall" forum because this is the college foots forum....if jack moves it,check over there....
sorry jack,i wanted to get some help from skillrules and i knew he perused the college foots forum...
any opinions on baroni/tanner or lindland/vitale......i`ve never seen vitale....
good info guys..and thanks.
great stuff guys...
i have a feeling that this thread might end up in the " off the wall" forum because this is the college foots forum....if jack moves it,check over there....
sorry jack,i wanted to get some help from skillrules and i knew he perused the college foots forum...
any opinions on baroni/tanner or lindland/vitale......i`ve never seen vitale....
good info guys..and thanks.
I would have to think Cabbage and the Under 2 rounds are strong plays, but the juice is way too high on each of those. I certainly wouldn't bet on Tank even at +225 or so.
seems like
seems like
tank basically came back to be an "opponent".....a stepping stone for guys to make their bones on....he hasn`t faired well recently......if he doesn`t catch you quick,he doesn`t have the cardio to hang in....
seems like
tank basically came back to be an "opponent".....a stepping stone for guys to make their bones on....he hasn`t faired well recently......if he doesn`t catch you quick,he doesn`t have the cardio to hang in....
Tank was poorly matched in his last two fights--they put him against submission fighters--something that he didnt have to worry about in the UFC's of 6 years ago.
Now he is against a guy that will stand and bang with him- Tank is going to knock him out of hit him so many times the ref will stop it. Cabbage has some skills but if you look at his UFC fights he allows himself to get hit-- he has this notion that he can take anyones punch.Tim Sylvia punched him repeatedly and won easily against Cabbage.
This is Tank's last fight on his contract-- His name sells tickets because of his UFC fights years ago and also because of his pro wrestling--UFC put some major $$$ into advertsing Tank in this show.
Tank is savy enough to know if he wins he most likely gets another contract or at least another fight.I hear he has been training and is in better shape this time.Tank will force a standup and will hurt Cabbage.
As far as Baroni/Tanner-- I am no fan of Baroni but I think he wins this fight.I think he is stronger and a much better fighter on his feet./Tanner is dropping weight and wont be as strong.IF the fight goes to the grounds there is a chance Tanner submits him-- but I think tanner is too much.
Lindland/Vitale-- I think Lindland will put Vitale on his back and work elbows,forearms and punches.Lindland is an Olympicv Silver medalist and he can dictate where this fight takes place- Vitale is STRONG-- but Matt can hold him down and wear him out.
Now he is against a guy that will stand and bang with him- Tank is going to knock him out of hit him so many times the ref will stop it. Cabbage has some skills but if you look at his UFC fights he allows himself to get hit-- he has this notion that he can take anyones punch.Tim Sylvia punched him repeatedly and won easily against Cabbage.
This is Tank's last fight on his contract-- His name sells tickets because of his UFC fights years ago and also because of his pro wrestling--UFC put some major $$$ into advertsing Tank in this show.
Tank is savy enough to know if he wins he most likely gets another contract or at least another fight.I hear he has been training and is in better shape this time.Tank will force a standup and will hurt Cabbage.
As far as Baroni/Tanner-- I am no fan of Baroni but I think he wins this fight.I think he is stronger and a much better fighter on his feet./Tanner is dropping weight and wont be as strong.IF the fight goes to the grounds there is a chance Tanner submits him-- but I think tanner is too much.
Lindland/Vitale-- I think Lindland will put Vitale on his back and work elbows,forearms and punches.Lindland is an Olympicv Silver medalist and he can dictate where this fight takes place- Vitale is STRONG-- but Matt can hold him down and wear him out.
good stuff nova...
good stuff nova...
excellent....you were leaning baroni?......the last sentence in your opinion on baroni/tanner was confusing....seemed to indicate tanner...
whatever,i agree that this one looks very tough....
the price on abbott is interesting...and i`ve read that cabbage will stand up with him...
no blockbusters,but a nice,competitive card...thanks
good stuff nova...
excellent....you were leaning baroni?......the last sentence in your opinion on baroni/tanner was confusing....seemed to indicate tanner...
whatever,i agree that this one looks very tough....
the price on abbott is interesting...and i`ve read that cabbage will stand up with him...
no blockbusters,but a nice,competitive card...thanks
"excellent....you were leaning baroni?......the last sentence in your opinion on baroni/tanner was confusing....seemed to indicate tanner... "
sorry about that-- Yes I am betting Baroni all the way-- but I may make a smal prop bet on Tanner by submssion because I think it's the only way he can win.
I will call Trigg's trainer on Thurs and see what thing look like behind the scenes--
sorry about that-- Yes I am betting Baroni all the way-- but I may make a smal prop bet on Tanner by submssion because I think it's the only way he can win.
I will call Trigg's trainer on Thurs and see what thing look like behind the scenes--
Good to see you Randy. Good points. Tanner was already ripped to the bone and now dropping another class is going to hurt him. The one advantage he has on the feet is the reach, but he seems too mechanical standing to take advantage. He will have to get at least 3 or 4 takedowns to win the fight.
Looking forward to see if Rico C. had something up his sleeve while training Trigg. Im sure they had to work the guard more than other fights, because if you ignore being on the bottom vs. Hughes you are in trouble. It would be great to see him stuff a takedown and get into a couple of trades on the feet. Maybe he can throw in a little groin shot like he did to Hallman.
I wouldnt be surprised if the fight goes along, that Trigg manages to get the top at least once in the fight.
Looking forward to see if Rico C. had something up his sleeve while training Trigg. Im sure they had to work the guard more than other fights, because if you ignore being on the bottom vs. Hughes you are in trouble. It would be great to see him stuff a takedown and get into a couple of trades on the feet. Maybe he can throw in a little groin shot like he did to Hallman.
I wouldnt be surprised if the fight goes along, that Trigg manages to get the top at least once in the fight. "Looking forward to see if Rico C. had something up his sleeve while training Trigg. Im sure they had to work the guard more than other fights, because if you ignore being on the bottom vs. Hughes you are in trouble. It would be great to see him stuff a takedown and get into a couple of trades on the feet. Maybe he can throw in a little groin shot like he did to Hallman. I wouldnt be surprised if the fight goes along, that Trigg manages to get the top at least once in the fight"
AS close as I am to these guys and as much as I want to see Trigg win-- it is hard to picture him doing it... but @ +220 and this will go higher as the week goes on I will take those odds.
I doubt Rico has anything up his sleeve so to speak-- I expressed the fear that Trigg would get caught under Hughes like Vlady did Tito and get pummeled for 5 rounds-- Rico assured me that Trigg worked the gurad a lot and is better @ getting out from the bottom position then Vlady.
Again--Rico thought that you know exactly what Hughes will do.I look for Trigg to try and defend the takedown and he will be swinging some huge knees.
Frank has traied hard on the bottom--the question is can he defend the blows and escape or reverse-- IF Trigg gets on top-- his long arms and punching power could create some big problems for Hughes.
I know Hughes has more experience,fought tougher opponents etc.. so he is rightfully a huge favorite-- but Trigg will come to fight-- this fight wont go the distance.
AS close as I am to these guys and as much as I want to see Trigg win-- it is hard to picture him doing it... but @ +220 and this will go higher as the week goes on I will take those odds.
I doubt Rico has anything up his sleeve so to speak-- I expressed the fear that Trigg would get caught under Hughes like Vlady did Tito and get pummeled for 5 rounds-- Rico assured me that Trigg worked the gurad a lot and is better @ getting out from the bottom position then Vlady.
Again--Rico thought that you know exactly what Hughes will do.I look for Trigg to try and defend the takedown and he will be swinging some huge knees.
Frank has traied hard on the bottom--the question is can he defend the blows and escape or reverse-- IF Trigg gets on top-- his long arms and punching power could create some big problems for Hughes.
I know Hughes has more experience,fought tougher opponents etc.. so he is rightfully a huge favorite-- but Trigg will come to fight-- this fight wont go the distance.
I talked to Rico-- (Trigg's trainer)
his thoughts--
He says that as far as value he likes them in thsi order--
Lindland-- Even though Matt is the fav-- he looks to be in great,great shape and Team Quest has him more then ready.
Tank-- big underdog but he has been training with John Marsh and Marsh says Tank actually trained for this fight.
Trigg-- focused,ready and handled his big weight cut well-- worth a small wager because he is a huge underdog.
Rizzo-- again an undergog and has KO power to win the fight.Will use leg kicks to soften up Ricco.If fight goes to the ground major advantage for Ricco.( I disagree on this fight --and am betting Ricco)
Baroni-- strong,ripped and in great shape.He thinks Baroni will win a tough fight.
thats about it
his thoughts--
He says that as far as value he likes them in thsi order--
Lindland-- Even though Matt is the fav-- he looks to be in great,great shape and Team Quest has him more then ready.
Tank-- big underdog but he has been training with John Marsh and Marsh says Tank actually trained for this fight.
Trigg-- focused,ready and handled his big weight cut well-- worth a small wager because he is a huge underdog.
Rizzo-- again an undergog and has KO power to win the fight.Will use leg kicks to soften up Ricco.If fight goes to the ground major advantage for Ricco.( I disagree on this fight --and am betting Ricco)
Baroni-- strong,ripped and in great shape.He thinks Baroni will win a tough fight.
thats about it
Tank got raped (again). No contest. He was a decent brawler back in the day, but on the current MMA scene guys like Cabbage are on a different level striking-wise than Tank could ever be.
