Plays for Sat. Nov. 22nd!

[ND2002HORNS]

YTD 158-124-3 +40.56 Units

Well last weekend produced some nice ML winners but nothing like the week before. Toledo, EMU, Vandy, Nevada and Memphis were some nice ML winners.
This week I am switching my focus to teams who have given up on their season and teams looking to become bowl eligible. Their is some solid value in a few teams that I will play this week. Grabbed a few plays on Sunday night and I will post info tonight on these games. Got a few system plays as well. I think I might play more 2nd half games this week as I don't think it is a strong card but their is some value with a few games. Might play some totals later in the week.

EMU +29**
This line has dropped to 27 some places and might drop another point. Lets face it, this EMU team is a different club with their new coach. I am mad at myself for not going harder on them last week in their SU win over Ball St. Two wins in a row and they catch NIU off a tough loss to Toledo. No way they blow this EMU team as they are now playing with a different attitude and from what I have read are trying to finish as strong as possible, they have not given up on their season as it looked like that when they had lost 7 in a row. With wins over CMU and Ball St. this weeks game against NIU will be a step up for EMU but I think they stay inside the number without a problem.

Back in a bit with 4 more plays.

HORNS

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this weekend bud!


toy

 

[THE WIZZARD]

GREAT JOB HORNY.........KEEP IT UP.


GOOD LUCK.


WIZZ.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks aj and Wizz!

Adding:

NW - ML(-165)**
Rather take this on the ML than give up the points on the road to be safe. NW needs this to be bowl eligible. They have lost the last 2 in this series and 4 of the last 5. Seniors are talking about getting a win against the Illini. Difference with these two teams is that Illini gives up way more points per game. Both statistically are very close. NW not a bad road team going 3-2 so far. Illini on the other hand are terrible period and only win this year came at home to Div.2 school.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Adding:

Wisconsin -2***
Unranked team at home favoured over a ranked team scenario. AR182 mentioned this trend a month ago and ever since it has been extremely profitable. I already liked Wisconsin as their balanced attack last week was too much for MSU too handle. Iowa is terrible on the road at 1-3 while they are 7-0 at home. Their defensive stats are nowhere near as good on the road as at home which makes me like this play as well. Wisky on the other hand is 4-2 and have looked much better their last 2 games after losing 3 in a row. They should be able to stretch the field on the Hawkeyes and get revenge for last years 20-3 drubbing in Iowa.

HORNS

 

[BUCKY1]

I think Bucky is a solid play.
GL horns

 

[Cie]

I like the unranked laying points trend. I've used it for 3 or 4 years and have found that it also works very well in hoops. Any thoughts on LSU/Miss???

GL:weed:

 

[ND2002HORNS]

CG - I played Ole Miss +6.5 and will post a short write up tonight.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Adding:

S.Miss - ML(-141)**
Another unranked team favoured over a ranked team scenario.
The crowd is going to be rocking in Hattiesburg. I believe SMiss has nothing to lose and TCU has everything to lose which will play into my hands on this play. The crowd and emotionally charged SMiss is worth something. TCU is 1-3 ATS on the road while SMiss has been a solid 4-1 at home with their only loss coming to Nebraska. SMiss only other losses came to Cal and Alabama, both solid programs. The way I see it SMiss has been challenged physically this year more than TCU. TCU has played Vandy and Arizona on their out of conference schedule. Both teams have two wins and are dead in their respective conferences. Big edge for SMiss in this dept as I always like teams that have been challenged more during the season and tested against superior competition.
SMiss has lost their last 2 games against TCU and the Seniors want to have a big effort at home as well QB Dustin Almond for SMiss will be playing with added emotion as his grandfather died on Monday who had attended all his games over the last 3 years, he has come out and said how this game has taken on another dimension for him with the passing of his grandfather.
TCU on the road is a different team. They avg. over 480 yds. at home in total offense while on the road the avg. 370 yds. In those numbers they avg. 233 yds. rushing at home while only 92 yds. on the road.
TCU has had 4 road games to date, winning 3 by a FG and the other by a TD. Twice they won at home by a FG. Sure they win the close games but against inferior competition.
SMiss avg. 28 pts. at home but only 13 pts. on the road.

SMiss gets the upset win and ends TCU's undefeated season.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Adding:

Ole Miss +6.5**
Well we have a home dog off a bye week in this spot, I will never pass up that kind of value especially when they match up well. This series has been close 4 of the last 5 years outside of '99 when Miss. won 42-23. The line in this game is the same as last week for LSU and now they face a much tougher opponent than Alabama, which is something to ponder. When I look at LSU I see great talent, so naturally their speed and athleticism is super. They have 4 RB's with over 300 yds. which gives them great balance at RB in case anyone goes down and allows them to rotate them in for fresh legs if they want to as well. What bothers me with LSU is they have struggled against two of the better passing teams in the SEC in Georgia and Florida. Both teams were able to pass on the LSU defense and still mix in a little run. We all know how tough LSU is against the run but now they face their toughest opponent passing the ball in the Rebels and Eli Manning.
This will be one of the biggest games in some time in Oxford outside of their annual rivalry game with Miss. St.
When I look at Ole Miss I see tremendous balance at the WR position which allows Eli to spread the ball around. Five receivers have 23 receptions or more, Collins, Flowers, Riddle, Espy & Johnson. Now that is balance and will give an average LSU pass defense fits. Ole Miss lost both games this year in the last half of the 4th Q blowing leads. Ole Miss has a huge edge in the kicking game as they can rely on Nichols to get them 3 pts. in long situations whereas if LSU has the chance for a long FG, chances are they will either go for it on 4th down or play field position and punt it. Nichols is 23/24 and has hit some long FG's this year for the Rebels. LSU kickers combined are an average 7/14 and have not hit a long FG. Getting almost a TD at home in a closely contested game is solid value. Winner most likely goes to the SEC CG to represent the West. In a FG game, LSU gets the win but Ole Miss stays inside the number but could very well win this game outright.

HORNS

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Adding:

Missouri +14.5*
Last game of the year for the Wildcats and Senior's Day of course. KSU is coming off a huge win over Nebraska as their program was 0-70 when playing a higher ranked opponent. I really believe they put alot into that game both emotionally and physically. KSU has struggled this year against QB's who could run and pass or against a balanced offense. Their 3 losses came against Marshall, Texas and Okl. St. They have only one quality win and that was last week against the Huskers. KSU relies heavily on one receiver in James Terry. They don't spread around the ball outside of him. Sprowles at RB and Roberson at QB are serious threats anytime they touch the ball. I know Missouri has not been good on the road going 1-3 with the three losses against conference opponents. QB Brad Smith will give the Wildcats defense all sorts of problems just like any team they have faced that can run and pass and are not one dimensional. Smith spreads the ball around as 5 WR's have 20 receptions or more. Tigers will want to avenge last years 38-0 loss at home. I think the Tigers stay well inside the number but KSU gets the home win to close out their reg. season.

I will be back later with a Friday night play on the Boise St./Fresno St game.

As well, any thoughts or feedback on the following would be appreciated. I will be playing three more games and I am leaning to the following:
Cal - ML(steep price though)
Oregon +3.5
Kentucky +19
SU +2
Kansas -11
NC St. -1
AF -4

Thanks in advance for any comments.

HORNS

 

[Cie]

Winner goes to the SEC CG to represent the West

If LSU wins they would still need a win next Friday over the always pesky Razorbacks. Ole Miss should have no problem winning the EGG BOWL regardless of Jackie Sherrils pending retirement.

GL:weed:

 

[taoist]

...good stuff, as always, horns.


...with ya on the So. Miss game. I've been eye-ballin' this one for three weeks.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks guys! Added fuel for the fire with tonights game. TCU coach Patterson is quoted as saying if Oklahoma stumbles and we go undefeated my ring will say National Champions. On the front of the USA Today.

Well this will bite you in the :moon: and will hurt alot tonight!

HORNS

 

[Cie]

LSU DE Marcus Spears has not practiced since taking a severe blow to the head Tuesday. This guy is huge for a DE with extremely quick feet. Plays the run and rushes the passer. Big loss if he can't go Saturday.

More as I hear it.....

cie:weed:

 

[NY Reb]

Horns, great write-up on LSU-Ole Miss. You really do your homework! I'm in agreement with you. Best of luck this week!

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks Reb! Much appreciated. You always have great work as well.

CG - Keep me posted on the possible injury at DE. Thanks,

HORNS

 

[Cie]

The line in this game is the same as last week for LSU and now they face a much tougher opponent than Alabama, which is something to ponder.

Is it me or are the oddsmakers looking for Ole Miss action by leaving the line the same for an obviously superior squad on LSU's 2nd consecutive road game???

 

[ND2002HORNS]

I have thought about it over and over but Reb made a good point. If Vegas was looking for Ole Miss money that line of 6.5 would have reached 7 by now. It is set here for a reason. Hope that helps.

HORNS

 

[Cie]

Marcus Spears practiced this morning without incident. He is 100% for Saturday.
Keep up the good work.:weed: