A NY Perspective -- 11/20 - 11/22

[NY Reb]

Last week: 9-5 (+26.5*)
Last 4 weeks: 30-15 (+106.9*)

Games are coming slowly this week. Some of my plays might be posted later than usual. Some might not be posted until Saturday. We'll see. It just depends on when the clarification takes place.

Thursday:
7* Southern Miss -2
Why is Southern Miss even favored? Because it's time for TCU to meet their waterloo. A month ago I'd have never taken this game, but the Golden Eagles have improved a lot in the last month. There's a lot of excitement brewing in Hattiesburg. USM will enjoy representing their conference in the Liberty bowl once again. Besides, who wants an undefeated TCU melodrama anyway?

Saturday:
7* Boston College +16 (bought half)
Seems like a lot of points for the Hokies to be giving anyone at this point. BC's Derrick Knight has run for more yards than VT's Kevin Jones. Hokies looked great against Miami, and very average since. Game will be closer than the spread.

7* West Virginia -2
I kind of like the momentum the Mountaineers have going. I always hate going against the Orangemen in the Carrier Dome (I drove past the Carrier Dome just last night) but I'm going to go for it this time. Love to watch Quincy Wilson at RB. He is a tough hombre!

7* Arkansas -26.5 (Canbet)
I keep waiting for the linesman to catch up with Miss St. Maybe they're getting closer, but I still don't think they've quite caught them. Bulldogs aren't going to put up much of a fight until they play Ole Miss Thanksgiving night. Most of the team has quit, and many of the best players are injured. There is no spirit, no heart, and no fight in these guys. Football is no longer fun for them. They already know they will get blasted. Hogs have injuries and a look-ahead to mighty LSU, but they'll crush the Dawgs anyway. They should win by 35. If the Hogs rest their starters in the 2nd half, MSU will be going against someone a little closer to their talent level, but they'd still be outmanned. I considered this strongly for a 10*, but since my last two against MSU won so easily, I'm a little hesitant to give it my highest recommendation. Even so, just can't see them covering this one any more than the last two.

Other plays are still perculating. Check back if interested.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL Reb! Great stuff as always. I have some great numbers that I will post tonight about the TCU/SMiss game and I really believe TCU goes down tomorrow.

HORNS

 

[Augur]

As of yet ...have not posted the units on any of my bets yet ...but since you have asked ...tells you this ..i live bout 18 miles from WVa campus ...so gets lots of info on their games ...feeling there is nothing but upbeat ...this team is on a mission and focused ...dont see them letting this one slip thru there grasp ...Couch Rod wants that Big East title bad ...he runs the score up big time here if he can ...WVa is rated now ...and could go higher in the bowl picture ..with a big win here ...not so next week ...i grabed the WVa-1 1/2 early monday for 2 units then after some phone calls bet 1 more unit at -2 ...feel this line goes up again before game time saturday ...my cap sez ..WVa 42-27 but bear in mind ...am a Hillbilly ...born an raised here ...could be a tad prejudice on the score ...but not on the winner of this bet ...Augur

 

[NY Reb]

Horns, that's great! Happy to see that you feel the same way. I'll look forward to whatever else you have to report.

 

[NY Reb]

Augur, I see it the same way you do. I am on the Mountaineers, and I don't live nearly so close. I fact, I am only an hour and a half from Syracuse. I still think we got the right team on this one, even if it is inside the dreaded Carrior Dome. Interesting to know that you have 3 units on it. I'll bet you rarely lose 3 units. Thanks.

 

[Augur]

Smiles at that last comment ...maybe i lose very few of them because i play so very few of them ...this year had 3 units on Navy+ playing ND ...3 units on WVa + playing Mia Flor .....4 units on LSU last week that i posted here ...and thats the crop so far this year till this week so am up 10 units on the 3 bets ...willing to risk 3 more on WVa again ...and by the way ..4 units is my very top play only make that one bout 2 times a year ...Rutgers game is good example why ...good cap i felt ...was going just like i figured ...then Rutgers QB gets hurt has to leave the game... does not get back in ..so in 3 rd and 4 th quarters ...BC get back in for the win.. lose my bet by a field goal Rutgers never scored a point in the 4 th quarter ...thats the way it could happen in any game...hence i never tempt fate to often with a 3 unit bet...Rained hard here monday night and all day yesterday ...WVa has a large indoor practice field ...coach Rod held indoor practice with sound track of crowd noise inside the dome blaring thru laud speakers all thru practice ...get the team use to the laud noise in the dome at Syra ...the players were made to understand that to get the crowd there to quiet down ...was to get a early lead and hold it ...remains to be seen if they can do it ...but thats the game plan ...take the home team crowd noise out early...look for some new wrinkles on offense ...this one is for ALL the marbles ...Grant Wiley linebacker for WVa is one of the 5 finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy this year ...look for him and Q Wilson to have a banner day here on TV ...both want a shot at the Pros ...big day for them is a must for a win here ...Syra is no push over...and the players here know that ...hope this helps ...Augur

 

[NY Reb]

10* Ole Miss +7 (bought half point)
I keep waiting for this line to go up to 7, like it did for Michigan, but for some reason it won't go up. The fact that it doesn't go up has meaning for me. Average folks should be pounding LSU by now. After all, they are probably the class of the SEC. As I look through their lineup, I see many familiar names from former all-star recruiting lists. No way the Rebs match up in talent. However, there's something about the way the Rebs play LSU. Last five years goes like this:
2002: Ole Miss 13 LSU 14 (Ole Miss covers)
2001: Ole Miss 35 LSU 24 (Ole Miss covers)
2000: Ole Miss 9 LSU 20 (LSU covers)
1999: Ole Miss 42 LSU 23 (Ole Miss covers)
1998: Ole Miss 37 LSU 31 (Ole Miss covers)
That's 4-1 ATS in last 5 meetings. (3 of 5 games were in Baton Rouge.) And this year's edition of the Rebs is the best of all those teams. Eli Manning is a future All-Pro. He is the best quarterback in college football. He has a lot of highly recruiting guys in the OL to protect him, as well as more highly recruited guys at WR. Rebs will score on LSU's vaunted defense, especially at home. The real secret of this game is whether the Rebel defense can deter the powerful LSU offense. I think the defense is underrated. Pass protection is 100% better than it was the first half of season. Secondary actually has skill and talent. And I'm betting the front 7 can hold their own in this particular game. They are sky-high. Is LSU actually that much better after beating Rebs by a point in Baton Rouge last year? Think about it. I like this game a lot. This year is a year of destiny for the Rebs in general and for Eli in particular. Feel he can will the Rebs to victory here. BTW, this isn't for the record, but I also have a play on the moneyline at +240. Truly feel the Rebs will win this game.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Glad we are on the same side! Can't wait for this game to start! GL

HORNS

 

[daftplayer]

Terrific info on Ole Miss/LSU NYReb....thanks. I was afraid to go for it until now. I'm with you.

I've followed you all year, and now Augur thanks to you, and only recently started posting here. I responded to your "Scott" request on USC. Believe me when I say I'm no homer. However, I've been so successful following you that I would like to give back if it's possible. Nothing is for certain but I am going heavy on the Trojans.

Scott mentioned the Trojans being dinged up in a couple areas but they are deep on D, where most injuries are. Look at the Wash St to see how they did, as team had same D injuries then as now, excepting Omar Nazel (DE), who played with bad thumb and now is out for season, replaced by Rucker who is bigger and faster, though Omar was my favorite player. I left off kicking game in earlier assessment as I said should not be a factor. but USC punter would rank #1 in country if the O would let him qualify with enough attempts, and FG kicker, though he missed one against Cal, is solid. Adv USC in kicking.

These are 2 programs headed in opposite directions at end of season, UCLA having dropped 3 straight and having all kinds of trouble scoring, and now they're facing the best defense in the PAC10. And Trojan O is a machine.

I'm not trying to persuade, just trying to help, just trying to say Thank You for all the work you put into this sight.

If you take trojans I pray it hits.
GL

 

[Cie]

QUOTE]Is LSU actually that much better after beating Rebs by a point in Baton Rouge last year? Think about it.[/QUOTE]



I also like Ole Miss + a TD.
Is LSU better than last year? Let's think about it. Matt Mauck was out vs Ole Miss last season(and every game after breaking his foot vs. Fla). He is a MUCH better decision maker and a MUCH more accurate passer than Marcus Randall. At RB LSU lost Dom Davis and Toefield, but do not miss a beat with Broussard, Vincent, Addai and Carey playing this year. 4 Returning starters on the O Line means to me that they are more cohesive than last season. They lost last year's #3 WR, Jerel Meyers, but Skyler Green is a better player. Defensively, they lost All-American Bradie James (MLB) and Jeremy Lawrence (WLB), but this season's defensive unit claims that they play more as a unit without a stud leader like Bradie.
The team worked out extremely hard this offseason and are in MUCH better physical condition than last year. Studs such as Michael Clayton, who max bench pressed 285 last season and 340lb now, really hit the weights in the Spring. Are they better than last season? Damn straight they are. Will they cover vs. Ole Miss? Like you, I think not.

Keep up the good work.:weed:

 

[NY Reb]

Horns, I am also happy that we are on the same side. Hope everyone reads your write-up on this game as well.

Daft, thanks for the USC info. I am still looking hard at this game. Hope you racked up tonight with Southern Miss.

Cie, since you are a Tiger fan, I am happy that you are also on Ole Miss side.

Good luck to all of us!

 

[Scott4USC]

USC is dinged up on defense especially with ton LB injuries. Simmons is going to try and play but he is not 100%. Grootegood, USC best defensive player, is out. He will not play. So 2 starters will be in at LB with Sartz filling in for groots (he is good) but the 1st backup will be a freaking walk on. UCLA can attack USC LB's in the passing game. VERY EASY! Will they? I dunno.

Also, Carroll plays backups in blowouts and stops trying to score. UCLA last year scored 2 TD's with their 1st string against USC 3rd string.

By the way, USC practices have been very sharp and some reserves have stepped up on offense. Maybe a few suprises. WR Whitney Lewis, he is #4 had his best practice week all year. He was #1 high school recruit in the nation last year.

FIGHT ON!!!!!!!

 

[NY Reb]

Thanks for helping us stay up to date, Scott. Are you wagering on this game?

 

[#cruncher]

Very much respect your opinion Reb...but am a tad concerned about the Ole Miss call.

1) LSU has the better defense
2) they have the better rushing game
3) Saban is a defensive specialist...if anyone can limit a super QB or offense...he can
4) throw out the home field advantage in this one...if anything it may give LSU an edge...it has taken me many years to figure that one out
5) I would like to say good luck to you...but I will probably be on the tigers...Good Luck to you anyway...you are a swell guy!

 

[NY Reb]

Thanks for your respectful post, cruncher. I have to agree with your 1st 4 points. What can I say, LSU looks like an obvious winner here. I just can't figure out why the line won't go up another half point. Good luck this weekend, hope you have mostly winners!

 

[Wonderdog]

Good Job Reb.. I have only 1 thing to add on the USC game.
How many points will they try to win by.....Bigger ass kicking look better for the BCS?
Off to get me some Miss play.

 

[Rebel21]

NY, I know you and I usually agree on Rebel plays, sometimes we are right and sometimes we are wrong. But this time I must disagree with your play. There is no way in Hell i'm gonna be on LSU, but watching them last saturday night scared the shiite out of me. They looked very dominating. Our defense sucks so they will be able to score on us. They've got an unbelievable defense and I think they will be on Eli every play. With our aching O-line I see Eli being forced out of his game by all of LSU's blitz packages.


Besides those feelings, I want this win more than anything...
Its definitely possible, but I dont see a close game...I see a possible huge letdown for the Rebs, I hope I'm wrong.

I've been at every LSU-Ole Miss game since I was in high school so I know all about how close the games are usually. I hope the trend continues and I hope we pull it out. But betting on us in this situation I cannot do.

Just my .02. gl on the play, I REALLY HOPE IT COVERS...

 

[Scott4USC]

USC coaches repeatedly say they don't care about the BCS and will never run up the score on anyone. USC will call off the dogs.

No, i am not betting this game. USC -21.5 is too many points in this rivalry. On paper USC should win by 30-40pts and that very well might happen. I just do not see too much value in USC -21.5.

Taking USC 1h might be a better bet. Last year USC buried UCLA early. Look for USC to try and repeat that and Chow will pull out his best offensive plays. Also empty backfield to see if UCLA can cover all the outstanding WR's USC has.

UCLA best DB is not covering Mike Williams, and I think UCLA said they will try and cover Williams with one DB. Look for Williams to have a huge day.

FIGHT ON!!!!!!!!!

 

[NY Reb]

Rebel21, hope you enjoy the game. In fact, I hope you enjoy it more than you think you will. Wish I could be there.

Thanks, Scott. If you were on them I'd be on this game in a heartbeat, but your hesitation makes me hesitate. I'll need to find another good reason to either get me on it or off it for good. Take care.

 

[daftplayer]

NYReb...Had a nice hit on SMiss thanks to you and Augur. I'm also with you on Ole Miss. In fact, I went for it all on ML, 1 unit. I guess it's maybe a bit of wishful thinking or hopeful wishing in regards to USC BCS status.........and the fact you provide great info, even if you and Augur differ on this one.

Scott's holding back on USC but I still like the play alot. Granted, SC 2 best LB's (Groteegood and Simmons) are out, but they have been for the last few games. The walkon LB went to same HS as Carson Palmer, one of top HS programs in country, and he made 8 tackles last week.

Last bit on this play: this is only the trojans 2nd home game in about 6 weeks and they are pumped to be at home where there will be 90,000+ screaming(not so socal laid back) fans enjoying the moment. Last home game the place was rockin and SC took apart a very good Wash St team, a team far superior to bruins. It is a big rivalry game but right now Pete Carroll has his stamp all over it. SC should roll.