Square's 11.21.03

[Square Guru]

Recap 11.20.03
NBA.....1-1 2 losing days in a row
CBB.....1-0
CFB.....1-0

NBA.....61-41 +39.84%
CBB.....05-04 -00.22%
CFB.....66-45 +63.60%
NFL.....32-37 -47.74%
NHL..... -34.00%
MLB..... +74.58%

MTD Combined.....-16.61%
YTD Combined.....+96.24%

1% = $98

Cleveland Under 178.5 -110 x 2% @ Bowman

 

[JEFF]

Hey Guru, lemme know what you think about the Grizz and Rockets...

 

[Square Guru]

Jeff lookin at these.....

Det -9
Atl +10.5
Mem +4
Por -1
GS -5.5
Chi +14


Ugly ass leans, must be why I can't keep up with the BIG BOY HIGH ROLLERS on here.

Waiting for the line moves, a square like myself doesn't pay much attention to the early moves, only the late moves that simply mean it is square money moving the line.

But then again a very sharp friend of mine told me once a SHARP book will move on a sharp betting $200, before they move on a square betting $2,000. What do I know I'm small time compared to most these guys wagering a minimum of 1 dime per play.:thinking:

 

[Square Guru]

Atlanta +10.5 -110 x 1.5%

Memphis +4 -110 x 1.5%

Milwaukee +3.5 -109 x 1.5%

Seattle Under 194 -110 x 1%

New York Over 177 -110 x 1%

 

[Square Guru]

Golden State -5.5 -103 x 1%

Detroit -8.5 -108 x .5%

Portland -1 +101 x .5%

Chicago +14 -104 x .5%

 

[JEFF]

Glad to see you on MEM, hate to see that you have Portland. Rockets seem like an obvious play, which scares me, but it's one of those cases where one team cares a lot more than the other. Also like the Warriors but trying to limit to two games a night. GL tonight.

 

[Square Guru]

oh come on JEFF, I'm only on 31 games tonite :banghead: but still only using about 27% of my Roll.

Theres are 2 main reason I'm on Portland tonite.

1. System play

2. Fade play from a few posters.

As for what the line is telling me. A certain book is baiting Portland action which is why I only went .5% on it. if I were to make it based solely on movement alone I would have played Hou +1 x 1%. So from my line movement watching alone I'd say your on the right side. With that Memphis play I restrained myself from making it a 2% play. Really like them tonite and almost threw some down on the +163. But Seattle can kill ya with the 3's when their on.

GL tonite!!

 

[JEFF]

Love your analysis of the lines at different books, line moves, etc. Must have taken quite a while for you to get such a good grip on that stuff.

My plays are mostly situational -- momentum, focus, motivation. I think the Grizz have had some time to stew about that Det loss, their only one in four games. They're also much deeper and longer than the Sonics across the board, and should have a serious advantage inside. Sonics still not very well-rounded without Allen or an inside presences. They started well but haven't won many impressive games. Whether it plays out like that, well, that could be another story. That's the NBA for ya...