Week 12 System Plays

[GM]

The systems in the original posting went 13-5 last week. In addition, two systems Mr. Christo pointed out to me, which were added later in the thread, went a combined 3-1. Somehow I also missed noticing all the Under plays on System #18 that were in play last week and they didn't get posted. They went 3-3.

I didn't count the plays on a couple of systems, even though they were winners. System #2 (Houston: line never reached +9) & System #7 (Philly: -3's were probably available at game time, but I think -3? was more accurate of the true closing line).

Big thanks again to ocelot for digging up some more up-to-date records on some of these. For now, I am going to continue to post the old records, only because it's a big job taking those new records, and then going back and figuring out how each system has performed this year and adding it all up. It's late and I just want to get these things posted, but hopefully sometime later this week I can get some of them updated.

Onward to Week 12...
This week's big play: Arizona! FIVE different systems point to the Cards as a play this week. Atlanta comes up three times; Buffalo also comes up two or three times; Houston twice.

System #1 - Play on a home dog that allowed 40 or more points last week (40-17, 70.1% since '87).

Play on: Arizona

System #2 - Play on a road dog of 9 or more if both teams lost on the road last week (15-8, 65.2% since '90).

Play on: Detroit

System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).

Play on: Houston

System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).

Play on: Philadelphia

System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62% since 1983).

Play on: Buffalo (if line = +3 and total < or = 37)

System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (26-3, 89.7% since start of '02, including 14-2, 87.5% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**

Play on: Arizona, Atlanta, Washington

System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 58-91-5, 61.1% Unders --- O/U 29-49-3, 62.8% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**

Play the Under on the games involving: Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Detroit, St Louis, Washington, NY Giants

System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (49-30 ATS, 62% since '92). **updated**

Play on: Houston, Atlanta

System #25 - Play on a home dog of 7? to 14 pts after a loss by 14+ pts. (31-15 ATS since '92). **updated**

Play on: Arizona

System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (13-1 ATS, 92.9% since '02) (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**

Play on: Arizona, Atlanta

System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5 ATS, 73.6% since '92) **updated**

Play on: Buffalo

System #32 - Play on home dogs of 7+ who are outscored by 10+ pts/game on average. (9-1 ATS, 90% since '00)

Play on: Arizona

System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.

Play on: Buffalo
(Note: Dallas comes very close to qualifying as a play on System #35: 31 pts scored in their past 3 games, including 0 in their last game. But technically, they are not a play)

System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.

Play on: Oakland
(Note: KC scored only 19 pts in it's last game - questionable play)


Cheers, and good luck everyone.

 

[ocelot]

GM,

I'm also liking Arizona, Detroit and Houston.

Good luck.

 

[Kade]

System #16-- Atlanta didnt win last week nor are they favored this week.

 

[Kade]

Nevermind...I see that Tennesee is the team you are talking about.

 

[Superbear]

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, with a losing record. (31-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (19-21 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7
The average score in these games was: Team 22, Opponent 23 (Average point differential = -1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (46.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (64-31).

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - terrible offensive team - scoring 14 or less points/game, after scoring 6 points or less last game. (29-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (16-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.5
The average score in these games was: Team 18.1, Opponent 20 (Average point differential = -1.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (44.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (48-24).

Play Against - Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%). (32-8 since 1983.) (80%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (24-16)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.6
The average score in these games was: Team 20.3, Opponent 20.8 (Average point differential = -0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).

Play Against - Road favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after outgaining opp by 200 or more total yards in their previous game. (30-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (22-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.3
The average score in these games was: Team 22, Opponent 21.4 (Average point differential = +0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 17 (45.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (49-26).

Play On - Home underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (

 

[kenman]

Found more trends that support ATL this week.

Play On - Home underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record.
(32-7 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.1%)

Play On - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season.
(32-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.2%)

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ATLANTA) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points.
(27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%)

Play Against - Road favorites (TENNESSEE) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season.
(31-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.6%)

Too many trends pointing to ATL, I guess I'll take TEN (-7)give the points.

 

[GM]

Too many trends pointing to ATL, I guess I'll take TEN (-7)give the points.

I was with you til that last sentence. :lol: You've got 4 systems hitting at over 75%, so you decided you have to go against them? Now I'm confused.

(Though personally I don't have the stones to play Atlanta either. So I'm just staying off the game entirely. There are a lot of other games I like a lot more than this one).

Good luck to you.

 

[djv]

Good stuff guys and should always be looked at. To me what makes these beter is there legue trends not just pointed to one team. Alot of that stuff like Atl covers everyear the 3rd week is junk. This is good stuff here.

 

[GM]

Exactly djv, that's the difference between a system and a trend. Trends are team-specific; systems are not, they are situation-specific. I'm not a believer in trends, in general. Mainly because teams change so much from year to year, coach to coach, etc. But systems aren't dependent on these things.

 

[Allnet]

Now that's what I call another great day. Been out of pocket for 4 days. Took out the ole print out, made a call, played all sides head up and put a bunch of teasers together. Sunday was another job well done. I thank you from the bottom of my wallet. :toast: dance2 :hail :142smilie

 

[treynolds]

your system plays have been hitting at an amazing rate lately.
I think i might just coattail them next week.

 

[GM]

Thanks guys...

Thanks guys...

I've been at the gf's place since Sunday night, so couldn't respond til now (computer broken ...I need my internet connection!!). By my count the plays went 15-5-2 this week if you count Atlanta as a loss, or 15-2-5 if you were able to find a +7 on that game. In any event, yes, they've been scorching hot lately.

I really don't expect it to continue....certainly not at this rate. But if it helped you I'm happy. I know it helped me. For a while I was posting these but not really playing too many of them...sometimes even going against them. The past couple of weeks I've paid more attention to my own posts. :lol:

Back in a bit after I dig up this week's....

:toast: