Friday and Saturday plays!(Nov. 28/29)

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ND2002HORNS

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YTD 170-130-3 +49.93 Units

Well last week a couple more nice ML winners came in, BC, Duke & UAB to name a few, none of which I hit I may add.
Still a solid number of teams looking to become bowl eligible that I will play this week.
Here we go, tread lightly, I am due for a bad week.

Friday's plays:
Colorado +3**(-110)(bought the .5 pt.) - Loser
Buffs need this one to become bowl eligible. They have won this game the last 2 years and the 3 previoius years the game was decided by 3 pts. or less, which goes to show you that regardless of each teams record you can throw them out the window. This trend reflects the line. Huskers last 3 games, they have won only once and that was against Kansas. They got exposed against KSU and Texas. Their defense has gone in the tank a bit as they are now surrendering 10 pts. more per game and over 150 yds. more per game. Huskers have lost all three games against quality teams this year, being Missouri, KSU and Texas. Huskers have beat absolutely nobody - wins over Kansas, ISU, T.A&M, Troy St., SMiss, Penn St. & Utah St. None of their wins stand out. Buffs get the win at home but had to buy the .5 pt. for the slight fear of a FG game for Neb.

Arizona +15.5** - Loser
Yes the Wildcats. ASU has no business being more than a 2 TD fav. Devils have everything to lose in this game, the alumni and entire school would have fits if they lost to lowly Arizona. Wildcats on the other hand have nothing to lose and will play that way. In a rivalry game to get that many points is way too good to pass up. Hell, Arizona as bad as they have been are still an average 5-6 ATS while ASU is a terrible 1-9 ATS which shows you they have been overvalued all year. RB Mike Bell will gain at least 150 yds. on a poor ASU D who employ a terrible defensive scheme. Teams have run on this soft D all year. Wildcats stay inside this number.

Back in a bit with a few Saturday plays. Sorry I posted my plays a little later this week as I have had many e-mails already. I am covering the ND/Stanford game and I have been doing alot of research on the series.

GLTA!

HORNS:D
 
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ND2002HORNS

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Adding:

Tennessee -10.5**
Wildcats and Vols are going in different directions. Vols have found their game since they beat Miami. That game seemed to get them believing a little more. They have been hitting on all cylinders, mind you the last 2 games have been against Vandy and Miss. St. Vegas is begging you to take Kentucky with this number. Kentucky is usually good for one big home game a year against a ranked opponent and they got that out of their system way back against Florida. Kentucky has beat absolutely nobody, Indiana, Ohio, Murray St. and Miss. St. Mismatch game and Vols win by 20 pts.

Syracuse - ML**(-210)
Don't want to touch the points here as Rutgers have been great ATS this year. SU needs this win to set up next weeks game against ND to become bowl eligible which is why I am betting the ML. SU could and should cover but ML is the safe way to go. This Rutgers team has people baffled as they have lost 3 in a row and 6 of their last 7 but are super ATS. SU gets the win.

Virginia -1*
Another unranked team favoured over a ranked team. Hokies are only 2-2 on the road and again have beat nobody outside of Miami. They have lost 3 of 5 in their customary fasion after their regular 6-0 start. Overrated team and their defense has been floudering of late over their last 3 games. Cavs Senior's have stated how they have never beat VT and want this one bad. I will grab the Cavs and take QB Matt S over Randall any day.

WF +8*
Maryland is not a great team going 2-3 this year while WF is nothing special at home either. Going to grab this game based on a couple of things. WF needs the win to become bowl eligible. Maryland has already accepted a Gator Bowl bid so not much to play for. As well the WF Seniors want a win against Maryland as they have yet to beat the Terps. Playing this one small as WF has been nothing like their selves that started the year on fire.

ND -3*(-110)
Irish are off a bye week in Ty's return to Stanford for the first time since taking over at ND. Irish played better ball over their last 2 games in wins over Navy and BYU, nothing to brag about. They have been much more consistent on both sides of the ball and their special teams have been not too bad either. With a win ND will only need one more win at SU to become bowl eligible. Stanford on the other hand have been very average and over their last 3 games have yielded way more pts. and yards than their season average. I don't think Stanford can score as many points as ND with Lewis at QB. He is good for 2 bad mistakes a game resulting in momentum swings. I look for ND to establish the run and control the line of scrimmage.

Toledo +8* - Riding hellahs back on this one.

Looking to add to Houston, SF and Pitt. No other plays for me unless something jumps out at me.

HORNS:D
 
A

AR182

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horns,

i like virginia, w.f.(may be my best bet), the under in the lsu game & miss. st. but am leaning to rice vs. lou tech. lou tech's defense is rated just ahead of n. car. in worst in nation & don't like to lay points with a team that has a bad defense.

good luck this weekend
 
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ND2002HORNS

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Is anybody on Florida?

The reason I ask is when you look at the schedules of both teams I see a tougher schedule for Florida and that FSU has not been that dominant and are a little overrated.

FSU lost to Miami(solid opponent) and Clemson(a little above average team).
FSU was taken to the wire by GT who they beat 1pt. and NC St. took them to OT and lost to FSU by 6pts. Virginia gave FSU a tough game losing by five pts to FSU.
Other wins for FSU were:
UNC - who were terrible early in the year when they played them.
Maryland - played them early in the year as well before the Terps played better ball.
Colorado - average team
Duke - early in the year they were terrible and a much better team now.
WF - played them later in the year when they had stumbled.
ND - just another below average team on their schedule.

You look at the Gators and they beat 3 top ten teams at the time they played them in LSU, Georgia and Ark. all on the road.
Lost to Miami by blowing a big lead. Lost to Ole Miss by 3 who are tough this year and Ten by 14 who also beat Miami.
Other wins were against below average teams in SJ St, F. A&M, Kentucky, Vandy & SC.

Why is FSU even favoured? Trap line is my thinking. Any thoughts?????

HORNS:D
 
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tennessee tout

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I like all your picks, well except you mention La. Tech. I can't side with you there. I was wondering why you liked them. Oh well, good luck this weekend. Also, be careful of Tenn. this week. Every swinging di_k is betting on the Vols.

good luck,

the tout
 
B

Box and one

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ND2002Horns
I like your Tenn pick.
Lyr shut them out 24-0.The yr before UK did cover 38-35.But the yrs before that 59-20,56-21,59-21.
Tenn is 9-2 ats in lst 11 and won all those. Thats the best bet on the bd.. GL
 
L

Lost Hillbilly

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Like your picks horns!

I no Im a new poster, but in reference to the previous post about U-Tenn. record ATS. UT is not 9-2 ats in the first 11 games this season.

UT/FRESNO 24-6 DID NOT COVER
UT/MARSHALL 34-24 DID NOT COVER
UT/FLA 24-10 COVER
UT/USC 23-20 DID NOT COVER
UT/AUB 28-21 DID NOT COVER
UT/UGA 41-14 DID NOT COVER
UT/BAMA 51-43 COVER Thanks to CC heroics
UT/DUKE 23-6 DID NOT COVER
UT/MIAMI 10-6 COVER
UT/MISS ST. 59-21 COVER
UT/VANDY 48-0 COVER

Believe me, list on them in four of first five. Thats why I posted would they ever cover at home a couple of weeks ago agains MSU. They finally came through at home and made a big winner for me.

I like them agains UK, but if its raining and at UK don't count out MONGO at QB for the cats!
 
Blackman

Blackman

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Horns - I like the Florida play. I really didn't give this game a look until I read your take on it - and the more I see the more I like. Besides for the quality wins and strength of schedule advantages to Florida - what about the fact that FSU has nothing to play for this week. They have locked up the ACC, so their BCS invite is sealed (which is bogus to me but could be to our advantage here). Win or lose, FSU's postseason position is the same, yet this win could be huge for Florida's bowl position. While I know that the FSU players will be playing 100% out on that field, I have to think their preparation was not at the intensity it would have been if their BCS bid was in question.

I think Florida will be up for this one, and while I try to avoid such close games, I think Florida has a decisive advantage, and is worth investing a unit in.

GL on tomorrow's plays.

BM
 
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