Arkansas +10 Friday Ncaa
- Thread starter Mick Onofrio
- Start date
Some pretty strong trends leading me to play against the Tigers today...
Some pretty strong trends leading me to play against the Tigers today...
Play AGAINST L.S.U. after 2 road games (2-11 since 1985).
Play AGAINST L.S.U. their last conference home game of the season (4-16 since 1983).
Both are Home-Specific and Conference-Specific which are my favorite angles/trends...combined they go 6-27 against LSU. Pretty Powerful. I think they both exemplify the late season losses we are accustomed to linking LSU to regardless of how good this team is at any given point in a season. I won't get into my perception of the psychology of trends like these and why they exisit but the S.E.C. is an "any given week" kind of league and I would think Arkansas is the last team the Tigers would like to face in their last game of the regular season year knowing what has recently become at stake. We're talking about a Razorback squad that can score on anyone, anywhere, anytime when they think and execute. What they did at Texas was no hoax. This team lines up pretty evenly with just about every team it faces and today will be no different. With Arkansas and LSU both catching fire down the strecth run I think it's safe to expect the best out of both. If I had to go a little deeper I would have to say LSU has played the more challenging late schedule and may be a little worn coming into this one on a short week. I won't reach too far though and I will keep it simple.
Some pretty strong trends leading me to play against the Tigers today...
Play AGAINST L.S.U. after 2 road games (2-11 since 1985).
Play AGAINST L.S.U. their last conference home game of the season (4-16 since 1983).
Both are Home-Specific and Conference-Specific which are my favorite angles/trends...combined they go 6-27 against LSU. Pretty Powerful. I think they both exemplify the late season losses we are accustomed to linking LSU to regardless of how good this team is at any given point in a season. I won't get into my perception of the psychology of trends like these and why they exisit but the S.E.C. is an "any given week" kind of league and I would think Arkansas is the last team the Tigers would like to face in their last game of the regular season year knowing what has recently become at stake. We're talking about a Razorback squad that can score on anyone, anywhere, anytime when they think and execute. What they did at Texas was no hoax. This team lines up pretty evenly with just about every team it faces and today will be no different. With Arkansas and LSU both catching fire down the strecth run I think it's safe to expect the best out of both. If I had to go a little deeper I would have to say LSU has played the more challenging late schedule and may be a little worn coming into this one on a short week. I won't reach too far though and I will keep it simple.
2 Things Nick Saban has never done...
2 Things Nick Saban has never done...
1. Win 11 games and...
2. Have a One Loss or less year. He has had (two) 2 Loss years as a Head coach, one at Toledo and one at Michigan State.
Today he tries to accomplish both with a win over Ark.
2 Things Nick Saban has never done...
1. Win 11 games and...
2. Have a One Loss or less year. He has had (two) 2 Loss years as a Head coach, one at Toledo and one at Michigan State.
Today he tries to accomplish both with a win over Ark.
Capping this game with my old system
Capping this game with my old system
Some of you might remember the system I was using to formulate my own lines. Well I had to abandon it because of inconsistancies. One week it would hit for 70% then the next would be 45% and I just couldn't figure out how to calculate the time to hit a game hard. It is still effective to see if a line is true though so I usually measure my plays against it. My findings...
Actual Line: LSU -9.5
Calculated Line: LSU -8.73
Method Variation: LSU -6.53 thru -11.04
Variation Range: 4.51
More importantly Sagarin's Ratings today show LSU as about an 11 Point Favorite so that should draw a little more money on that side. All-in-all it looks like a very fair line so we can rule out "funny stuff" by the oddsmakers and know that whatever happens on the field was made happen by the better team. I fully expect Ark to stay within the number and I expect a majority of the money to be on LSU. Good Luck to everyone on all your plays today. Up about 28.8 Units on the week so I'm being pretty conservative playing this game at 5 Units despite that fact that I absolutely love it.
Capping this game with my old system
Some of you might remember the system I was using to formulate my own lines. Well I had to abandon it because of inconsistancies. One week it would hit for 70% then the next would be 45% and I just couldn't figure out how to calculate the time to hit a game hard. It is still effective to see if a line is true though so I usually measure my plays against it. My findings...
Actual Line: LSU -9.5
Calculated Line: LSU -8.73
Method Variation: LSU -6.53 thru -11.04
Variation Range: 4.51
More importantly Sagarin's Ratings today show LSU as about an 11 Point Favorite so that should draw a little more money on that side. All-in-all it looks like a very fair line so we can rule out "funny stuff" by the oddsmakers and know that whatever happens on the field was made happen by the better team. I fully expect Ark to stay within the number and I expect a majority of the money to be on LSU. Good Luck to everyone on all your plays today. Up about 28.8 Units on the week so I'm being pretty conservative playing this game at 5 Units despite that fact that I absolutely love it.
you are wrong about the Sagarin numbers the line would be 9 - you have to look at the Predictor numbers of course I think Sagarin is an idiot so who cares
so now are you going to pout and say you arent going to post anymore, yet again?
so now are you going to pout and say you arent going to post anymore, yet again?
Just my opinion but i think Arkansas will have trouble scoring points. They cant throw the ball and the only thing they do good is run the ball which plays into LSU's run defense one of the best in the NCAA. They need to get a special teams TD or a defensive TD to stay within the 10..
Sagarin is 11 with Homefield advantage
Sagarin is 11 with Homefield advantage
Pout??? All I have done this week is go 6-1 +28.80 UNITS. Why would I be pouting??? You need a winner play Arkansas, you need someone to argue with you have come to wrong place. I love you all.
Did you read it right, son? I said it's good to see Sagarin showing LSU as the clearcut Favorite on the front of the USA Today Sports Page...more dumb money on LSU.
Sagarin is 11 with Homefield advantage
Pout??? All I have done this week is go 6-1 +28.80 UNITS. Why would I be pouting??? You need a winner play Arkansas, you need someone to argue with you have come to wrong place. I love you all.
Did you read it right, son? I said it's good to see Sagarin showing LSU as the clearcut Favorite on the front of the USA Today Sports Page...more dumb money on LSU.
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