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updated
4 unit........0-1 (-4.4 units)
3 unit........1-0 (+3.0 units)
2 unit........17-9 (+16.1 units)
1 unit........26-25 (+0.21 units)
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2 unit......miami (-4) (+104) over pittsburgh
2 unit.....wake forest (+6.5) (-101) over maryland
1 unit.....texas a+m (+21.5) over texas (from olympic)
1 unit.....florida state (-1) over florida
1 unit.....add: ohio university 2h (+7) (+110) over marshall
1 unit.....bowling green 1st half (-4) over toledo
1.5 unit.....add: bowling green 2h (-3.5) over toledo
herd dominated the 1st half, but they have a tendency to step off the gas with a big lead this year (kent state game comes to mind). ohio played hard and got the backdoor against miami last weekend in a similar spot. while its not likely they do the same thing 2 weeks in a row, i think the 2h will be played evenly
obviously shoulda waited on wake, as its crossed well over the key number. maybe im missin something but with terps locked into a bowl and wake still needing this game, im expecting a solid deacon effort. cant overlook the fact that terps are coming off a late emotional up and down rally (last 4:00 of that ncst/mary game was wacky). while that uconn loss was clearly embarrassing, wake has had 2 full weeks to prepare for this important game. im confident that uconn disaster was an abberation.
as far as miami goes, i know homefield swings a lot but has miami's personnel changed so much in less than a year that they go from 20+ pt favorites in this series the L2 years to now a 3 pt chalk? pitt certainly a solid team but miami has been nails on the road the last handful of years. seems like everyone has soured on miami a little bit since the vtech/tennessee stretch. recent effort vs syracuse and rutgers hasnt helped their cause either. but thats a program that seems to sometimes just go through the motions at home vs inferior teams because theyre always looking ahead to the next big game. id be real surprised if miami didnt make a statement here. short price, and i just dont think pitt is in miami's league quite yet. (counterpoint would be pitt almost beat miami outright last year in coral gables. imo, mindset changes when you are laying in weeds as a 20 point dog. miami isnt overlooking pitt in this spot this time around)
florida state....just a gut feeling play. similar to the kstate/nebraska play from a line angle. even if its just a short chalk of 1 or 1.5 points, vegas seemed to take a stand on opening florida state as the favorite in the swamp. last time florida was near pick em at the swamp, miami opened a can on em. i could be dead wrong here, but backing the noles.
bowling green 1h....bowling green has jumped on pretty much every opponent theyve faced at doyt perry the last 2 yrs, and theyve tried to throw early haymakers. the game line of 7/8 scares me, as i think gradkowski and toledo are gonna be a tough team to blow out, especially given the implications of this game. worth noting that for as good as these teams have been, and even though this is the premier rivalry in the mac, the series has been not only home dominated, but dominated by lopsided scores. you gotta go back quite a few years to find a game where the home team didnt win convincingly. falcons should stay true to form and script their first handful of plays at home to jump on toledo early
updated
4 unit........0-1 (-4.4 units)
3 unit........1-0 (+3.0 units)
2 unit........17-9 (+16.1 units)
1 unit........26-25 (+0.21 units)
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2 unit......miami (-4) (+104) over pittsburgh
2 unit.....wake forest (+6.5) (-101) over maryland
1 unit.....texas a+m (+21.5) over texas (from olympic)
1 unit.....florida state (-1) over florida
1 unit.....add: ohio university 2h (+7) (+110) over marshall
1 unit.....bowling green 1st half (-4) over toledo
1.5 unit.....add: bowling green 2h (-3.5) over toledo
herd dominated the 1st half, but they have a tendency to step off the gas with a big lead this year (kent state game comes to mind). ohio played hard and got the backdoor against miami last weekend in a similar spot. while its not likely they do the same thing 2 weeks in a row, i think the 2h will be played evenly
obviously shoulda waited on wake, as its crossed well over the key number. maybe im missin something but with terps locked into a bowl and wake still needing this game, im expecting a solid deacon effort. cant overlook the fact that terps are coming off a late emotional up and down rally (last 4:00 of that ncst/mary game was wacky). while that uconn loss was clearly embarrassing, wake has had 2 full weeks to prepare for this important game. im confident that uconn disaster was an abberation.
as far as miami goes, i know homefield swings a lot but has miami's personnel changed so much in less than a year that they go from 20+ pt favorites in this series the L2 years to now a 3 pt chalk? pitt certainly a solid team but miami has been nails on the road the last handful of years. seems like everyone has soured on miami a little bit since the vtech/tennessee stretch. recent effort vs syracuse and rutgers hasnt helped their cause either. but thats a program that seems to sometimes just go through the motions at home vs inferior teams because theyre always looking ahead to the next big game. id be real surprised if miami didnt make a statement here. short price, and i just dont think pitt is in miami's league quite yet. (counterpoint would be pitt almost beat miami outright last year in coral gables. imo, mindset changes when you are laying in weeds as a 20 point dog. miami isnt overlooking pitt in this spot this time around)
florida state....just a gut feeling play. similar to the kstate/nebraska play from a line angle. even if its just a short chalk of 1 or 1.5 points, vegas seemed to take a stand on opening florida state as the favorite in the swamp. last time florida was near pick em at the swamp, miami opened a can on em. i could be dead wrong here, but backing the noles.
bowling green 1h....bowling green has jumped on pretty much every opponent theyve faced at doyt perry the last 2 yrs, and theyve tried to throw early haymakers. the game line of 7/8 scares me, as i think gradkowski and toledo are gonna be a tough team to blow out, especially given the implications of this game. worth noting that for as good as these teams have been, and even though this is the premier rivalry in the mac, the series has been not only home dominated, but dominated by lopsided scores. you gotta go back quite a few years to find a game where the home team didnt win convincingly. falcons should stay true to form and script their first handful of plays at home to jump on toledo early
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