MAC Championship Thursday 12/04

[hellah10]

YTD
46-40-1 54% ATS
4-11 MLs

I allready have a future bet with BG to win the the title game - but this is no means a hedge bet. I seriously think Miami will beat them.

Its homecoming for Big Ben and even Ryne Robinson. Big Ben growing up and playing high school ball 20 minutes south of Bowling Green, in Findlay, Ohio. Ryne Robinson from Toledo.

You maybe wondering whats at stake here. Sure the MAC Championship is...but whats more important is this....Motor City Bowl officials are gonna pick Northwestern(yes 6-6 Northwestern) to represent the Big Ten in Detroit - It hasnt been official yet, but its gonna happen.

Anyways...

What the MCB officials are saying that, BG doesnt bring fans(they represented very well in Columbus) but NIU does (which they do). So in their minds, what better match-up of Northwestern and NIU...2 Chicago area D-1 schools go head-to-head in a Bowl game on ESPN and nothing but respect to gain (a.k.a. reecruiting). BG has to WIN here folks...not lose and they go, they have to WIN! Of course, their is still a chance that they go even if they lose, but NIU is the favorite to go to Detroit right now...and even TOLEDO has a chance to go to Detroit (doubt they will)

I doubt this is factored into the line. But this line should be 7ish. Home Dogs are lethal - but so is Big Ben and his O and his D. There is no reason to make a write-up on numbers and players and so on...we have all seen BG and Miami on TV allready, have read the reports, and yada yada...

Im not taking anybody as of yet...but the best part is this...I lucked out. I have to be in BG on Thursday at 10am to do a migration of like 10 computers (apparently they dont have IT students). I`ll be quick about it, I`ll ghost them and get them up and running on the network. Afterwards, you can bet yo ass I`ll be at the Doyt, WALKING on that shittttttttttty ass field. If I remember, I`ll even take my camera and try to post it here asap.

So anyways, Im gonna walk and feel that field on Thursday, and I promise you guys I`ll post something on it before 6pm and possibly a few pictures.

I was leaning Miami...but after that MCB report...my lean might be back to BG. But regardless, Im playing Miami ML to hedge my future bet here.

 

[hellah10]

note I should pass along...

NIU has guaranteed that they would sell 25K tickets.

25K?!?! HAHAHAH. Toledo has brought 40K+ each year they went to Detroit. If they are going on attendance, then there is no reason to take NIU - Toledo and BG would should be favored in that area.

Then again, I dont give a shit who goes, I`ll still in be attendance

 

[CWood97]

Hellah, don't be so sure that MSU doesn't end up in MCB. Word around the campfire is that Ron Mason (MSU AD) may be paying the Sun Bowl not to invite MSU. Sun Bowl trip is a financial loser for Sparty. On the other hand, with huge ticket sales and players getting bussed in, the MCB is a windfall. Keep it in mind.

 

[hellah10]

Its official...

Northwestern to the MCB

 

[gman2]

from what ive heard, bgsu is really busting ass to try and get that field ready to play for thursday. the field conditions saturday were ridiculous. i guess they tarped the field on thanksiving (thursday) but took the tarp off friday and it rained/snowed for much of the day, which made the field look like dog shit for last saturdays game. they dont want a repeat of that kind of track

 

[hellah10]

yea it rained in the afternoon and snowed at night. Was about quarter inch of snow...no big deal..but that field didnt like it.

but i`ll let you all know on Thursday on the conditions...Im leaning heavy on BG though...as long as it stays 7 or higher

 

[CWood97]

Hellah, where did you hear NW officially to MCB? Haven't seen anything yet. Going to go to the game if its anyone but the purple.

 

[THE KOD]

hellah10

I have seen the line now at BG +7 . for the home team.


I have only seen Miami play one game on TV and they played very well.

Can you talk about Miami defense a little ?

I hope they are much better than NI defense that Josh Harris ran and passed through like they were standing still.

Will the field condition make more differance to the offense or defense ?

I really want to play this one.


KOD

 

[hellah10]

KOD -

Miami defense is #1 in the MAC. They have great linebackers that can cover and a great secondary. They could beat the shit out of Josh Harris again - but Im hoping not this time.

I shitty field always gives the offense(especially a running team) the highest advantage. If you saw last weeks game, you would see that BGs last TD drive was all runs with 1 pass. Toledo D played well IMO, its just that the option kept killing them and the fact that their footing slipped on them.

My play will be decided on that field tho..

 

[THE KOD]

hellah10

I see alot of people on Miami now.

They seem to base it like you said on the earlier win this year.

I do like them 7 points, you got to think that Josh Harris is going to keep this game close.

Someone said that it looked like Miami may have BGs number this year though .

walk on that damn field will ya! crawl under the tarp if you have to. Reports from the field could be jewels in the snow.

KOD

 

[Nickelback]

Hellah,

I think you should take all of the money you were gonna use to hedge your title bet on BGSU and put it on BG +7. Then you have a good chance to win both instead of making sure that you win only one.

Who has Miami beaten on the road this year? Colorado State? With all respect to Big Ben as he is a great talent, they had a favorable schedule this year in the Mac with the big games at home. . . they haven't played a tough opponent on the road this year except Iowa and we all know what happened there. I love this spot for BG especially when so many believe Miami looks so easy this week.

Gl bud. . . definitely like your lean and I think you should play it instead of laying it down on a huge ML with no value.

 

[gman2]

nickelback:

im starting to see a boatload of "miami will destroy bgsu" kind of posts.

honestly, i shit you not, when i capped this game and line, i figured bgsu would be a (-3) chalk. when it came out at (+7), i naturally figured "ah ****, im betting a public side with bgsu".

but it appears many are buying into miami as a juggernaut and many feel bgsu is outclassed.

the whole home/away thing is tough, simply because miami IS that damn good. their schedule -- like you said -- has been easy away from oxford. but even so, theyre really good.

but i went from feeling like i was one of many to be on bgsu to now feeling that the popular sentiment is that miami is gonna steamroll the falcons. ive visited many posting forums and have seen a ton of "miami gonna kill em. bgsu cant keep up" kinds of posts.

w-line actually shows a consensus on miami. not sure if i quite buy that, but at very worst, split money for the most part on this one.

 

[Nickelback]

Gman,


I was just gonna post under your thread. . . like your reasoning and the stats you show regarding BG at home. . . most around here choose to ignore those numbers based on how BG played Miami AT Miami! LOL. . . they say it is Miami's year but it was also their year based on their schedule and the tough games they had at home vs. the games played on the road.

Consensus numbers that I have seen show roughly 59% on Miami for this one. Like this one almost as much as I like Georgia taking 3 over LSU

You are right. . . Miami is damn good. . . no denying it

 

[gman2]

nickel:

hellah and other locals can attest to the mac's unique home-field edge. its like every team has a very different kind of homefield. miami and bgsu stadiums really nothing alike. falcons just have a way of knowing how to win on that field. even when marshall brought loaded teams into bgsu with leftwich, the falcons (who at the time had inferior talent) rose to the occasion and performed well. mac home field is so important

miami, bgsu, marshall, and toledo are probably the 4 mac elite teams and im not sure anyone could beat the other on each team's home field. hellah would probably agree that miami would have a tough time in toledo if rockets had pulled upset vs bgsu last week.

falcons have been putting up eye-popping #s at home the last few yrs

gl bud. also like georgia myself. thats gonna be an awesome game, but i feel georgia wins SU

 

[gman2]

also worth noting that hoeppner doesnt have a whole lot of confidence in his kicking game from outside of 30+ yards. its hard enough to kick in the doyt as it is, since that stadium is like a wind tunnel. have seen teams have disastrous kicking days in the south end of that stadium (the side with the orange/white tents).

 

[hellah10]

Bowling Green +7

 

[MACH1]

Thanks for that great piece of Knowledge GMAN!!!

I was going to ask the board about the kicking games of these 2 teams. To me this game is set up for the red zone DEFENCE. Both teams are pretty good Defensive teams and I think the cold and wet weather will draw more runs than passes tonight. If we can get 3 or 4 FG Atts. in this game and 1 or 2 miss, then I think the under is looking very good.