games this week

[AR182]

so far two plays i like this weekend are:

6.5*balt.-3(120)--i see this game being decided at the line of scrimmage, & i feel that balt. will dominate both lines of scrimmage. on offense cinn. is averaging 5.2 yards per play vs. teams that allow an average of 5.1 yppl on defense. even though cinn. averaged 5.1 yppl in the first game between these two teams, i will be very surprised if cinn. does that well on sunday vs. a fired up balt. defense that will be seeking revenge from the cinn. win earlier this year. on defense this year, balt. has given up an average of 4.3 yppl on defense to teams that average 5.1 yppl on offense. however, in the last 6 games the balt. defense has allowed just 4.0 yppl on defense to teams that average 5.2 yppl. on offense, balt. has done better with anthony wright at qb, then when boller was running the team. he has brought their offense up to 5.7 yppl. since he has started vs. teams that allow an average of 5.7 yppl. on defense. with lewis running the ball, balt. has averaged 4.7 ypr.vs teams that allow 4.1 ypr on defense. cinn. defense allows 4.4 ypr & 6.1 yppp to teams that average 4.1 ypr & 5.7 yppp on offense. this should allow balt. to control the game.

as everyone knows this is cinn. 3rd straight road game. i have found out that teams that are playing their 3rd straight road game & won the first 2 are 49-89-1(36%) ats since 1980.

another trend pertaining to this play: play against any .700< nfl team in their 3rd straight road game vs. a .400> opponent playing their 3rd straight home game.
since 1980 the ats record is 10-0-1

balt. should win this game by 10-14 points.

3*denver-2.5--in the first game this year between these two teams, denver dominated the line of scrimmage by averaging 6.7 yppl, while limiting kc's offense to 4.9 yppl. but as we all know kc won that game with dante hall's kick return for a touchdown.
in this game i also see denver controlling the line of scrimmage with portis (5.4 ypr) going against a kc rush defense that allows an average of 4.9 ypr(5.2 ypr on the road) to teams that average 4.4 ypr on offense. while priest holmes has averaged 4.7 ypr for kc, he will be going against a denver defense that allows 3.9 ypr vs. teams that average 4.2 ypr on offense.

a few trends that support this play: denver is 24-5 ats at home vs.teams with a winning % of higher than .600 & are 31-12-2 ats in home games when not favored by more than 3 points. they are 8-1 ats in their last 9 division home games & are an amazing 21-0 ats in division games they win straight up, when playing with revenge.

this is another game that i see the home team winning by 10-14 points.


good luck

 

[ND2002HORNS]

On both of them! GL

HORNS

 

[gman2]

ar182:

as always, the work you put in is appreciated. on the broncos as well. that baltimore game is so tough. cincy on the road yet again, which could spell trouble but theyve defied logic all year. amazing that im saying this, but im really lookin forward to baltimore/cincy... could easily be the best gm of the weekend

gl

 

[Wolftaz]

gman2..... You're right about Cincy. Marvin Lewis has the team focused and they look to prove everyone wrong every week. The OL for Cincy has really come together and Kitna is playing tough. Expect to see Cincy come out with some spread formations with 3 and 4 WR sets to keep Baltimore on their heels. Kelly Washington and Peter Warrick could be the difference makers in this game.

 

[gardenweasel]

i agree with the plays

i agree with the plays

probably public plays,but,that never stopped me before....

i would just add that i`d be leary of laying more than 3 in the raven game....that hook scares me...

what concerns me is marvin lewis` familiarity with everything ravens....the likes and dislikes....the strengths and weaknesses of the personnel....the tendencies....he`s only a couple years removed from b`more.....and i keep thinking back to the bills grabbing lawyer milloy the week before the pats game.....and we know what happened there....an anomaly,to say the least...of course you see scrubs grabbed off the waiver wire by the opposing team fairly frequently....



that said,i still lean ravens...the bengals have been very good to me this year.....but,for the ravens,this one`s for all the marbles...a loss and it`s adios to the playoffs...

if the bengals win here,everybody had better watch out.....

weather`s gonna be somewhat of a factor...all the presip will have moved through....but,it will be in the upper 30`s with some winds(15-20 and variable)......

i honestly have never put a ton of faith in "must win" scenarios.....have seen them go belly up many times....

but in these 2 cases,i gotta agree...i`ll be surprised if they aren`t very close ballgames,though...

g.l.

 

[AR182]

thanks for the well wishes, guys.

balt. & denver are strong running teams that play well on defense. that is a winning formula in football.

balt.--#2 in rushing offense
#10 in rushing defense
#6 in passing defense.

as 6th sense has noted, cinn. beat-- oak., buffalo, arizona, san diego,cleveland, & pitts. on the road this year. all of these teams are having a down year & are not playing with the same intensity that balt. plays. i see a balt. win by 10-14 points.

denver--#3 in rushing offense
#6 in rushing defense
#2 in passing defense.

imo, kc cannot win a championship with their defense & since their perfect start was ruined, kc is winless ats.i think denver is a better team than kc & i still see denver winning this game also by 10-14 points.


good luck!!

 

[ELVIS]

AR, LIKE YOUR POSTS, BUT CINNCY LOST TO OAK IN THE 2ND GAME OF THE YEAR. AT THIS POINT, I WISH CINNCY WOULD HAVE WON AS I WANT OAK TO DRAFT ELI MANNING.:tongue

 

[ajoytoy]

gl AR!


toy

 

[gardenweasel]

how are the denver linebackers?

how are the denver linebackers?

they are awfully thin at lb,if my memory serves me....might be worth checking out....g.l.

 

[AR182]

gw,

here is a list of injuries for each team.

KANSAS CITY
*DT Ryan Sims Elbow Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
*DE Vonnie Holliday Shoulder Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
*DT Montique Sharpe Ankle Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
*LB Fred Jones Ribs Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
*DE Eddie Freeman Toe Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
*OG Brian Waters Shoulder Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
*OT Marcus Spears Foot Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
*RB Priest Holmes Shoulder Probable Sun. vs Den. 12/4
LB Quinton Caver Back Questionable Sun. vs Den. 12/2
LB Monty Beisel Groin Out Sun. vs Den. 12/2
LB Mike Maslowski Knee Questionable Sun. vs Den. 12/2

DENVER
*CB Jimmy Spencer Leg Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*TE Jeb Putzier Shoulder Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*LB Al Wilson Neck Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*OT Ephraim Salaam Knee Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*TE Shannon Sharpe Ribs Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*C Tom Nalen Ankle Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*OG Dan Neil Thumb Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*WR Ed McCaffrey Quadricep Probable Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
*WR Chris Cole Shoulder Out Sun. vs Kan. 12/4
DT Daryl Gardener Suspension 2 games. Eligible to return (12/14) vs Cle. 11
RB Mike Anderson Suspension 4 games. Eligible to return (12/14) vs Cle. 11/
LB John Mobley Spinal Cord Out For Remainder Of The Season. 11/7
DE Bryant McNeal Back I-R. 10/22
QB Steve Beuerlein Finger I-R. Out for remainder of season. 10/21
LB Ian Gold Knee I-R. Out for remainder of season. 10/14
DE Clint Mitchell Thumb I-R. 9/2


good luck!!

 

[AR182]

hit the ravens & denver games, will make a small play on:

1*atlanta+2(120)--this is one of those games where the line seems fishy to me. we have an 8-4 carolina team playing at 2-10 atlanta & carolina is favored by less than a field goal.that doesn't seem right.

here is a trend that supports this play:

Play On - home underdogs or pick (atlanta) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record.

the ats record for this trend,over the last 10 years, is 33--8=====80.5%


good luck

 

[n2boca]

Thats a great stat AR thanks for posting it. GL 2 u

 

[gman2]

you are the quintessence of consistency. nice job

 

[AR182]

n2boca & gman,

thanks for the props.

hit the atlanta game last night. will play:


2*cleve. browns+7(138)

as everybody knows, the rams are not the same team away from home, especially playing on grass where they are 23-43-1 ats. this year they are 0-4 ats as road favorites & 1-9 in their last 10 games as an away favorite, & 4-16-1 ats outdoors for the last few years.
the browns are 6-1-1 ats in non-division home games off a loss. and since 1980, home dogs of +5 or less are 58-28 ats.

i think the rams are a vastly over rated team, that is very sloppy with the ball (their 33 giveaways lead the league) & with a big division game next week vs. seattle, i am on the browns.

good luck

 

[AR182]

didn't watch the game last night but glad i bought cleveland up to 7. it finishes up a great week for me going 4-0 for the week. needed it after a having a mediocre year thus far.


good luck