The plays went 11-6 last week.
Going into this week...a word of caution about teams who have given up on their seasons. My theory is that teams that are out of it and on the road may not perform as well as they normally would, whereas teams with nothing to play for but at home may at least give an honest effort in front of the home fans.
Also I'd expect teams that have just been eliminated from contention to come up lame the most often. A team that had their playoff dreams end last week, in my recollection, tends to stink it up immediately after. However, if a team has been out of the running for weeks the "mourning period" is over, and they may actually start to improve, playing for jobs next year or just for pride. Again, just my theories, but I always try to keep these things in mind this time of year, and I've done alright by it.
On to this week's plays....
Two teams come up three times: the NY Jets and Houston. Personally, I cannot play Houston as long as their injury situation is what it is. Their offence has been virtually non-existent the past two weeks. I really see them struggling to score any more than 7 points against anybody at this point.
A couple other teams come up twice: Cleveland and Cincinnati.
And we have a pretty unusual situation come up this week not once, but twice, on System #36.
Here we go....
=============================================
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: NY Jets
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: Oakland
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62.7% since 1983).
Play on: NY Jets, Cleveland (as long as line stays at +3, and total stays at or below 37)
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (29-5, 85.3% since start of '02, including 15-4, 78.9% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: Atlanta, Baltimore, Detroit, NY Giants, San Francisco, Green Bay
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (77-45-1 ATS, 63.1% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Cleveland
System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (51-32 ATS, 61.4% since '92). **updated**
Play on: NY Jets
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (15-2 ATS, 88.2% since '02) (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: Houston
System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5-1 ATS, 73.6% since '92) **updated**
Play on: Buffalo (if they become the dog)
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: NY Giants, Houston
Note: The Giants have repeatedly qualified for this system or come close to qualifying for it, and have repeatedly failed to cover. Also see notes regarding Houston above.
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver**
Note: Two more teams - San Fran & Philly - qualify for this system, but they play against each other, so obviously they cancel each other out.
On top of that, Denver has scored exactly 90 points in the past 3 weeks, while Indianapolis has scored 101 points. So, if you want to get super-technical about it, since the rule states "more than 90" points must be scored, Denver is a play (a play-against on Indy), but Indy is not. However, it could probably be argued they also cancel each other out here.
Good luck.
Going into this week...a word of caution about teams who have given up on their seasons. My theory is that teams that are out of it and on the road may not perform as well as they normally would, whereas teams with nothing to play for but at home may at least give an honest effort in front of the home fans.
Also I'd expect teams that have just been eliminated from contention to come up lame the most often. A team that had their playoff dreams end last week, in my recollection, tends to stink it up immediately after. However, if a team has been out of the running for weeks the "mourning period" is over, and they may actually start to improve, playing for jobs next year or just for pride. Again, just my theories, but I always try to keep these things in mind this time of year, and I've done alright by it.
On to this week's plays....
Two teams come up three times: the NY Jets and Houston. Personally, I cannot play Houston as long as their injury situation is what it is. Their offence has been virtually non-existent the past two weeks. I really see them struggling to score any more than 7 points against anybody at this point.
A couple other teams come up twice: Cleveland and Cincinnati.
And we have a pretty unusual situation come up this week not once, but twice, on System #36.
Here we go....
=============================================
System #3 - Play on a home dog if they won their last game outright, and their opponent was at home last week (90-44-6, 67.2% since '90).
Play on: NY Jets
System #5 - Play on the home team when both teams have won 2 straight SU (74-47-2, 61.2% since '89).
Play on: Indianapolis
System #9 - Play on the home dog on Monday Night football (58-36, 61.7% since '83).
Play on: Oakland
System #14 - Play on any home dog of 3 pts if the total is 37 or less (31-19, 62.7% since 1983).
Play on: NY Jets, Cleveland (as long as line stays at +3, and total stays at or below 37)
System #16 - Play against a team that won but failed to cover last week, and is favored again this week. (29-5, 85.3% since start of '02, including 15-4, 78.9% when the team in question was favored on the road). **updated**
Play on: Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston
System #18 - Play the Under when the road team is playing their second road game in a row (Since the start of '01: O/U 67-102-5, 60.4% Unders --- O/U 32-52-3, 61.9% Unders when the road team covered the spread in the prior game). **updated**
Play the Under on the games involving: Atlanta, Baltimore, Detroit, NY Giants, San Francisco, Green Bay
System #20 - Play on a home underdog after 4+ consecutive losses (77-45-1 ATS, 63.1% since '92). **updated**
Play on: Cleveland
System #21 - Play against a road favorite on a 4+ game win streak. (51-32 ATS, 61.4% since '92). **updated**
Play on: NY Jets
System #27 - Play against a road fav off a SU win but ATS loss. (15-2 ATS, 88.2% since '02) (same as System #16 except this must be a road fav) **updated**
Play on: Houston
System #31 - Play on home dogs of 7 pts or less who allow 4.5 yds/play or less. (14-5-1 ATS, 73.6% since '92) **updated**
Play on: Buffalo (if they become the dog)
System #35 - Play on any team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: NY Giants, Houston
Note: The Giants have repeatedly qualified for this system or come close to qualifying for it, and have repeatedly failed to cover. Also see notes regarding Houston above.
System #36 - Play against any team that has scored more than 90 pts in it's past three games.
Play on: Minnesota, Cincinnati, Denver**
Note: Two more teams - San Fran & Philly - qualify for this system, but they play against each other, so obviously they cancel each other out.
On top of that, Denver has scored exactly 90 points in the past 3 weeks, while Indianapolis has scored 101 points. So, if you want to get super-technical about it, since the rule states "more than 90" points must be scored, Denver is a play (a play-against on Indy), but Indy is not. However, it could probably be argued they also cancel each other out here.
Good luck.
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