NBA Trend - Input Requested

[Scarecrow]

I have noticed an NBA trend that I want to further explore. It seems that when a strong favorite is losing at halftime that they invariably come back in the second half. Not necessarily covering the game spread but winning the second half number.

I primarily focus on football so unsure of key numbers in hoops. The input I am seeking is parameters for my search query.

1.) How many points constitutes a strong favorite?

2.) How many points behind at halftime would suggest a second half play?

3.) Is a better halftime gauge to look at the overall game ATS deficiency to trigger the second half play?

Thanks in advance for any help.


Scarecrow

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

this is a great question....and one that i have usually played with HUGE home faves that are losing at the first half....either in both NBA / NCAA HOOPS / NCAA FOOTBALL

my rule of thumb for NCAA hoops second half wagers:

1) check the home faves record at home over the last 20 games.
If it's around 15 - 5 SU or better then you may have a play.
Check the away team's away record...if THAT record is around 5 - 15 then you may have a play.

2) if the 2nd half point spread added to their deficit gives you about a 2-3 point HOME victory then take the NUMBER.

i track all my plays so i can easily give you an example of the last time i did it.

ex: DEC 9th, it was Arkansas vs SE mizz st.
Arkansas was down AT home at the end of the 1st half by about 10 points: 41 - 31

seeing as how it was SE MIZ ST on the road.....i saw the second half line for arkansas was -9

Apparently the oddsmakers didn't think ARK was gonna win this one...as their deficit was 10 and the line was -9.
Having a good SU home record, i took the play at -9

arkansas destroyed them in the second half by 20 points, easily getting the -9 and they won the game 78 - 68.
_________________________________________

another example was yesterday with the purdue boilermakers as -25 points faves at home were only winning by 1 at the half vs "the team that has a confusing name while trying to find it's geographical identity....." in Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne....
The line that came out was -13 for Purdue, I thought this line was too high , so i laid off it.

Lo and Behold, Purdue only wins the second half by 10 points...glad I laid off it
_________________________________________________

moral of the story: pick your spots follow steps 1 and 2.
AND : do your research.

gl.

 

[MACH1]

I like this trend also. Has made me some nice coin this year.

I don't keep stats on this so I don't have any examples to give, but T.V. gives you some valid pts. For me it has to be a home team that is losing at the half. The team has to shoot better than 75% from the line. The FT line will help cover a spread when a team is shooting poorly from the field.

Yesterday's Purdue game kinda sucked for me bc I had the lofty total to cover for the game, and as T.V. said, 13 was just too many pts to cover in 2h. I saved myself some major coin by not chasing my first bet.

Hope this helps a little. I think this is a trend worth paying attention to....