Three's....

[IE]

sometimes when looking at a game ats with other factors its good to see if your projections can hit the "three"


ottawa

17-4 when scoring 3 or more
0-13 when scoring less than 3

boston

12-5 when scoring 3 or more
6-10 when scoring less than 3

------

philadelphia

16-4 when scoring 3 or more
4-10 when scoring less than 3

st louis

12-4 when scoring 3 or more
10-7 when scoring less than 3

-------

minnesota

11-2 when scoring 3 or more
10-11 when scoring less than 3

edmonton

14-4 when scoring 3 or more
3-11 when scoring less than 3

--------

nyrangers

13-7 when scoring 3 or more
3-9 when scoring less than 3

la kings

14-7 when scoring 3 or more
3-9 when scoring less than 3

---------

 

[mack the knife]

good info.

Question: why are you playing edm, but not, say, the over? AS you note, edm is horrific unless they get 3 or more....with a total of 4.5, you are saying min gets 0 or 1? Or are you saying the info here is not predictive?

The under looks good, so minny seems to be a good play--as they can win in low scoring games and only need a tie.

Ditto for st louis--I don't expect philly to get past 2--which bodes well for st louis.

thx

 

[IE]

mack, good feedback...

i was looking at the over in edm game at 4.5 but want + money with investment, so been holding off....if i get more than +101 will hit it....

i am projecting 3+ goals for edmonton in this game off play in defensive zone last 2 games of minnesota.

i should have expanded this a little further too look at the other side of the ledger, and will in future....time was restricted at the moment.

minnesota is 3-10 when giving up 3 or more ats and 15-6 less than 3....projected fernadez in goal.

just throwing this out for discussion which you started, i do not use this as a predictive mainstream but something that i do check before making a play.

was leary of st louis play because of goaltending situation overnight --which is when i make i put up plays on ie's page...
am still looking at it.....

 

[mack the knife]

thanks

IMO, johnson is not so much of a drop off in the regular season to worry.

As far as +$ on edm over, pinnacle has it at +101...

Also, fernandez has been mightily impressive too....

good luck.

mack

 

[IE]

clairfying......

yes +101 at pinnacle meant over that +101.....your correct...did not word that correctly...

again, was just throwin the "three's" out at something to look at not a definitive capping process.....

good luck tonight mack, you have been solid thru the years.....so respect your thoughts...especially in regards to baseball.

 

[IE]

Mack, what is your opinion on the side totals at olympic and 5 dimes in regard to hedging an outcome of a game as a whole....have you looked into this?

 

[mack the knife]

sorry, vanished into the night...

I like the 3's as a tool...predicting when a team will get 3 or more, or less, is obviously the tricky part.

But....if you can have an edge one way or another and the 3's hold true in the future, then I was going to say parlays are a good bet: was gonna suggest philly with the over if you liked philly, and minny with the under, but you already liked edm, and that's why I asked about your feelings on the over--they seemed to go together, as did miny and the under.

Don't know for sure about what you are asking about regarding oly/5 dimes. But if you mean taking philly over 2, for example, I have looked into this but not too hard. I've paid more attention to nba where the team totals don't add up to the game totals, so its more than hedging--you can win both. But in hockey, I just haven't done the homework. I suppose, for example, using the 3's approach, there could be value in the line itself, but I don't think there is with the heavy juice for hedging. You give up too much in juice on team totals.

MACK

 

[IE]

ok, thanks...

good suggestion on the parlays.

that is what i was referring too about team totals....and you are correct about the juice....

i have been logging the team totals for football like you referred too in the nba and going to run it thru after the season to see if it has any merit..

thanks again for the reply.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

I like the 3's as a tool...predicting when a team will get 3 or more, or less, is obviously the tricky part.

i agree....

but maybe you can also look into prop bets by period.....

i'm sure olympic has got some whilst the games are going on....
but that kind of severely limits your returns on investment.

IE: ottawa scores three in the first period.

Olympic will probably offer 2nd period and 3rd period lines....
but will ottawa try to up the score or sit on that three goal lead?

kinda tricky.