Saturday: Harvard +6

superbook

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YTD: 22-10-2

This game is so far off the radar screen for Vegas that Covers has it as a match-up between Hartford and Dartmouth.

Here's why Harvard is the play:

1. I don't think that anyone in Vegas even realizes that Dartmouth's leading scorer Mike Lang (11.8 ppg, 47% FG including 39% from the arc) severely injured his ankle in the 2H of the 12/28 game at Ohio State and won't play. Also top reserve Jason Meyer (16 mins/game, 6.7ppg) is out and he will undergo season-ending surgery on his ankle in the next few weeks. The two have accounted for nearly a third of Dartmouth's points so far this season. Lang is the team's go-to guy and will be sorely missed.

2. Harvard's 7 foot center Brian Cusworth (2nd team all-Ivy) is doubtful for this game but he was seen without crutches at 12/22 Rider game. Harvard really needs their big man back, Beatty can rebound but he can't handle the ball inside.

3. Harvard has won last 8 vs Dartmouth; both wins last year by a combined four points. This should be a very close game decided by a last minute shot.

4. After losing their first eleven, Harvard is coming off of a confidence-building win at San Jose State last Tuesday. Most of those losses were reasonably close, the only real blow outs were at BU and at Stanford. Harvard lost all five starters from last year and had just one player who had started a college game prior to this season, so their slow start is not totally unexpected. As the season progresses, they're looking better and better...taking Rider to OT, hanging with Stanford (somewhat) in the 1H and then beating SJS on the road.

5. Harvard can shoot free throws: 14-14 vs Stanford and 11-13 in the final two minutes at SJS.

good luck

- Jon
 

superbook

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Skipper -- I only write up plays that I think have a 65% or better chance of winning...yes, it was a big play for me.

Superbear -- the more points the better:eek:

IMO line moves on Ivy games don't mean much because there is so little money on these games plus Vegas doesn't know the Ivy.
 

gman2

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superbook said:
Skipper -- I only write up plays that I think have a 65% or better chance of winning...yes, it was a big play for me.

Superbear -- the more points the better:eek:

IMO line moves on Ivy games don't mean much because there is so little money on these games plus Vegas doesn't know the Ivy.

superbook, appreciate your hard work

where on earth would you grab 65% ? :) how the heck would you determine if a play has a 65% chance of winning? lol. such an arbitrary number

just breakin balls. continue the good run and keep up the solid work.
 

fatback

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Super, does Niagra's sh*tty 2nd half performance piss you off as much as does me?. Keep up the grear work:D
 

superbook

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fatback -- fortunately Manhattan covered so I went 1-1 in the MAAC...with the exception of Manhattan, most of the MAAC teams are very unpredictable (esp. Niagara, Fairfield, Iona)

skulldog -- thanks

gman -- yes, 65% is very arbitrary and based on no scientific formula...just my judgement that in the same situation the team would cover in two of three games played...not coincidentally 65% is my goal for a season-long winning percentage


No plays tomorrow or Monday...got my eye on a couple of possibilities for Tuesday.

- Jon
 

gman2

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superbook:

gotcha. i see what you mean. we're very similar in our approaches then. my goal is to hit 3 out of every 5 games i play. thats tough to do, but it is my goal. so i see where youre comin from. thanks for the reply
 

Superbear

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I live and work very close to Harvard but know alot more about BC than them.Thank you(this was a rare CBB double play for me)
 

superbook

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Superbear -- no prob...should be interesting to see what the line is in their re-match next weekend at Harvard...center Cusworth is scheduled to be back for his first game
 

Hokie Fan

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Thanks for the Harvard call

Thanks for the Harvard call

Sweated it out at the end but a great call.

Terrific research and it paid off..

Well done...
 

Pujo21

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Dartmouth @ Harvard

Dartmouth @ Harvard

Round 2 goes This saturday January 10th 2:00 pm.

Thanks for that heads-up and winner last week !

:D
 
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