Upset City

[Felonious Monk]

Don't want the points, don't need 'em.

BYU +3 @ NC State (3 Units to win 4.2)

BYU - This is the perfect spot for the Cougars to get a meaningful road victory and not a better setting than the RBC Center in Raleigh. Not a lot of excitement with the Wolfpack program right now due mainly to an average product on the court. NC State may be a big time basketball school but not this year. They already shot their wad against Virginia and I don't expect that kind of performance to repeat itself against a tough BYU team. The Wolfpack has a serious matchup problem with Araujo. First of all, they have nobody sizeable who can guard him and if they try to double him, Cougars have plenty of guards who can knock down the open 3's. Araujo should tear shit up all night. My only concern is BYU's perimeter D. If they can force the Pack to make tough shots, which they are known for, then Cougs cruise.

My only play for today. GL

 

[Scott4USC]

Good Luck!!!!!!!!!!

I really appreciate the explanation/brief write-up. Helps me out a lot, and lets me make my own handicapping decision.

 

[Felonious Monk]

The writeups from some of the others here helps me out a bunch too. I've been having some success with my big plays lately so I decided to post each day what I like with a brief synopsis. I won't spend too much time capping a game. It's overkill and I suddenly start second guessing myself. Watching the teams play has been my biggest asset in capping because I get a better feel how certain teams match up against each other.

The ball doesn't always bounce in my corner but it helps to observe and get an edge whenever possible.

Congrats on your Trojans winning the Big One!

 

[Felonious Monk]

Another thing to consider is taking BYU in the 2nd Half, whether they're getting points or laying them. Just about every big game they've been in this year, they come out swinging in the 2nd half and have outscored almost all of their opponents and by a significant margin.

UPDATE: Oddly enough the side moved to +3.5 but the ML went from +140 to +130 Somebody help me here. Does that mean they're getting action on the NC State side but also the BYU ML as well? I've never seen the side go one way and the ML value drop the in the other direction like that. Anyways, just for some cushion I bought the hook and played BYU +4 for another unit. 4 Units now pending.

 

[Felonious Monk]

Adding 1 more game:

Minnesota -1.5 @ Penn St. (1 Unit)

Minny - The Nittany Lions are just not a good team to begin with and now they are losing 2 solid players to transfer. The biggest name being Doforrest Riley-Smith, who was 2nd in scoring and 1st in total minutes. He was an integral part of this team and now they will struggle without him. Lions needed a big 2nd half to beat lowly Bucknell at home on Saturday. With Minnesota coming to town, they will have to hit on all cyliders to get past the Gophers. But with the team morale taking a huge hit, I don't see it happening. May increase this wager size but will wait on the line movement throughout the day.

 

[MowrMowr]

Good call FM...NCState has no home court to speak of this year. Would not be surprised at all to see BYU walk away winners.

 

[Cie]

Great call on LSU last night. I'm on NC St small, so you should have no problem cashhing on BYU.

GL:weed: