Tenn / NE Over 36?

[GM]

I'm giving the Over in Tenn/NE strong consideration. It's down to 36? and I don't really see a reason why it should be this low. Neither team is a defensive powerhouse. Tenn sort of has that reputation, but it's really not the case. They are #1 against the run but #30 against the pass, and NE is a passing team. NE's defence has been good (238 pts allowed, tops in the league), but NE has not faced many good offences. Comparable offences to Tenn: Indy (NE allowed 34 to them) and Denver (allowed 26 to them).

Tenn pass D is not strong. Both teams can put up points. 37's a great number to have in totals (the most common number games end up on). Titans have gone over 36? for 7 straight games. NE's numbers are lower, but in most instances they were either playing teams with poor offences (Buffalo, Jax, Jets, Dal), or teams with good defence (Mia, Jax again, Dal again). The total is this low because in NE's last 4 home games they have allowed 0, 0, 13 and 0 pts...but look at who they were playing against.

When these two teams played in Week 5, the score was 38-30.

McNair and George are hurting...what else is new? They are always hurting. I don't even consider this a factor anymore.

Weather doesn't appear to be an issue, aside from it being cold. Current forecast calls for a gametime temp of 13?F (brrrrr...) but 0% chance of precip. I'm not a big believer in bad weather = under anyways.

The more I look at this the more I like it a lot...this appears to be a stronger play than taking either side. I have to think NE stands a very good chance of scoring 20-24 here. If that's the case, Tenn should be able to get the rest.

 

[c note]

i feel public perception is over immediatly. When most bettors "only" see the total at 36.5 and they say "hey they scored 68 total last time they played" they figure easy over. I feel vegas sets the number this way due to public perception. It is going to be EXTREMLY cold in NE this weekend. Possibly in the single digits. I see lots of running in this game. Only time will tell. GL

 

[GM]

Hmmm...interesting....

The Over is a 74% play @ Big Guy. Yet the total this afternoon dropped a full point, to 35?. :shrug: It opened at 38.

I wonder if this is a legit move, or just the wise guys knocking it lower so they can slam it back Over with double the $$.

 

[Blitz]

GM, I'm still thinking about the O/U...

Just a couple of thoughts...

Game temp is going to be around Zero (not 13) not that it makes that big of difference...

I don't take too much stock in that 1st meeting between these 2 teams. Tenn had a couple of key injuries, especially on D I believe. NE had several key injuries to Def. starters, not just injuries, but they didn't play. NE is the healthiest they have been all season, they currently have no one listed, in contrast to most of the season, when NE's injury list at times seemed endless...

Good Luck to you on all your plays this weekend...

 

[GM]

Hey Blitz,

Well, I posted this before I saw the notes on the condition of the field...so I am rethinking it a bit now. Usually I think bettors grossly overreact to reports of poor weather conditions; the linemaker takes these things into account when the # is set. And bad weather doesn't always translate into Unders. In fact, it can increase scoring if there are turnovers. Really depends on where the turnovers happen on the field (inside your own 20? midfield? inside their 20? who can predict this...?). But if the weather is brutal (torrential downpour, unbearably cold, gale force winds), then yes, I believe it's a factor.

The 13? I quoted was the prediction I saw for gametime at weather.com. It now reads 10?.

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USMA0146?begHour=12&begDay=10

As for the actual teams...don't get me wrong, I think New England is the best team in the AFC (actually pretty hard to argue with that given the records). But I look at the list of teams they've played, especially late in the season, and they really haven't gone up against anybody with an offence, esp. a good passing game. That's my #2 reason for like the Over.... #1 being that I think the Pats can score even more against what I consider to be a pretty mediocre Titan D.

Cheers.

 

[vyrus858]

LOVE TO SEE YOU ON THE OVER GM...MY BOOKS WAS OFFERING A FREE HALF POINT TODAY SO I LAYED A UNIT ON IT @ 34.5....WASNT THE SCORE 38-30 earlier in the year when these clubs played? Love the over, especially in a playoff atmosphere

 

[ET4646]

I read a stat somewhere that when 2 teams play and thge total goes one way 38-20 and they play again the same year it ends up the opposite way low scoring in this case. Anyone see anything on this?:shrug:

 

[dukie]

GM, imo NE has a very good defense. To have three shut outs in a year is a very notable achievement, regardless of who they played. In the two games that you are considering Tenn and Den, the pats were missing alot of key players. I think that you are under estimating a very good smashmouth defense.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

I see lots of running in this game. Only time will tell. GL

That would seem to be the conventional wisdom but I just can't see it here. Tenn has the #1 rush D in the NFL while NE has the #4 rush D. Along with that Tenn has the #26 rush O while NE is #27. So both of these teams specialize in stopping the run and don't have much success with the run themselves. On the other hand, Tenn has the #5 passing O while NE has the #8 passing O while Tenn has the #30 passing D and NE has the #17 pass D. So both of these teams have quite a bit of success passing the ball while being relatively weak at stopping the pass. Despite the cold weather, I just can't see how these two teams are going to have enough success against the run to stick with it for any length of time. More passing, one way or the other will lead to more points. Either the teams have success and move the ball quickly, or incompletions lead to the clock stopping more and more possesions for each team. Then, of course, there's the turnover potential.

I see the total now down to 34. This is one of those that seems way too easy, and I always get burned when that happens.

If someone can please explain to me how these teams are going to have success running against each other I will gladly lay off this one.:shrug:

 

[Joe De]

i don't care if hell freezes OVER up in Foxboro...

2 good quarterbacks and nobody can run against'em...what are they going to do for 60 minutes...gotta throw the short passes all the way down the field..//gl