2004: 6-1-2
These are the kind of days that scare me. Got a bit lucky on Wednesday, going 2-0-2 with some big fav's. Now I know playing these big fav's in Hoops (or any other sport!) is not the way to the Playboy Mansion....But it's what I've come up with again today. Seems the books are currently being generous to the fav's for some reason, with most being 1-2 points lower than I expected. Hopefully the packed Friday night home crowds can do their part.....
Milwaukee -7.5
League: 106-29 SU (64-66-5...Av. win 8.6) home 5+ fav, 1 day rest off 10- ats loss, but SU win as home 5+ fav. [Mil]
47-9 SU (30-22-4...Av. win 10.4) if opp was last at home.
16-1 SU (11-4-2...Av. win 13.0!) (15-2 ats this no.) if opp off home 10- ats win.
9-1 ats (Av. win 12.7) if they were fav's.
Mil: 23-7 SU (15-15-1...Av. win 10.1) home -> home, 1 day rest, 5+ fav.
Mil: 25-4 SU (19-10...Av. win 11.6) home 5+ fav v. team off 10- ats win.
Mil: 10-5 ats (Av. win 12.7) if that win was at home.
League: 24-81 SU (43-57-5...Av. loss 8.0) away 5+ dog, 1 day rest off 10- ats win as home fav. [Mia]
8-40 SU (15-29-4...Av. loss 10.8) if opp was last at home.
Miami shot 54.3% last game v. Chicago and that's bound to crash.
Mil's big men (Skinner, Smith, Gadzuric and of course Mason) have been surprisingly (to me anyway!!) good so far, and should be able to get the better of Odom who pretty much plays a loine hand in the paint.
Boston -6
League: 150-29 SU (91-86-2...Av. win 10.4) home 5+ fav, 1 day rest off 10- ats win as home 5+ fav. [Bost]
81-14 SU (Av. win 10.4) if opp was last away.
48-6 SU (Av. win 10.5) if they lost SU as away dog.
25-4 SU (16-13...Av. win 12.2) if they won ats <10.
19-2 SU (11-10...Av. win 13.9) if they were dogs.
Bost: 29-8 SU (av. win 7.7) home -> home, 1 day 5+ favs.
Cleve: 7-43 SU (Av. loss 10.8) v. team in that situation. (0-2 this season...inc. 82-91 loss @ Bost.)
League: 31-105 SU (Av. loss 9.4) away 5+ dog, 1 day rest off 10- ats win as away 5+ dog. [Cleve]
14-61 SU (Av. loss 10.1) if opp were at home.
6-37 SU (19-24...Av. loss 12.1) if they were 5+ favs.
3-17 (Av. win 14.2) if they won ats.
Cleve: 5-29 SU (14-20...Av. loss 11.9) away -> away, 1 day rest as 5+ dog.
Bost: 17-5 SU (av. win 9.1) v. teams in that situation....Holding teams to 88.9 ppg, bad news for a Cav's team av. only 86.6 ppg on the road this season.
Bost won @ Cleveland 105-98 in Dec, where they scored 42 points in the paint to 28. (Admittedly Baker had 16 points, but Mihm likely to match that, plus pull down more rebounds too.)
Toronto -6
League: 125-33 SU (Av. win 8.8) home 5+ fav, 1 day off 10- ats loss as home 5+ fav. [Tor]
19-3 SU (Av. win 9.4) if opp off 10+ ats away loss.
League: 5-47 SU (Av. loss 12.6) away 5+ dog, 1 day off 10+ ats loss as away 5+ dog. [LAC]
2-28 SU (12-17-1...Av. loss 14.0) if opp was last at home.
0-12 SU (Av. loss 16.0!) if opp lost ats last game.
LAC: 6-30 SU (16-20...Av. loss 10.8) away -> away, 1 day 5+ dog.
Tor: 19-2 SU (Av. win 7.2) v. team in that situation.
LAC: 3-25 SU (10-18...Av. loss 12.8) away 5+ dog off 10+ ats loss.
I made note the other day (NJ game) how Clips give up big numbers on the road....
..."Clips play NO defense on the road, giving up over 101 ppg. They score only 93.1, but against what I would class as 'good defensive teams' they scored 78 @ Indi, 91 @ Min, 67 @ Utah, 85 @ Houst and 90 @ SA....Losing by 13, 12, 19, 14 and 21 respectively"......
...Since then they have scored 75 @ NJ and lost by 17 and 80 @ Philli and lost by 20.
Toronto are 7th in the NBA for FG% allowed and 6th for points allowed.
Clips should find it tough to post a competative score here again, esp. without Maggette.
Also looking very closely at Seattle -4, but the low line is kinda scaring me away!
Stats also show a reasonable advantage to the Lakers, but NO WAY am I going there! :thefinger
Good Luck all
These are the kind of days that scare me. Got a bit lucky on Wednesday, going 2-0-2 with some big fav's. Now I know playing these big fav's in Hoops (or any other sport!) is not the way to the Playboy Mansion....But it's what I've come up with again today. Seems the books are currently being generous to the fav's for some reason, with most being 1-2 points lower than I expected. Hopefully the packed Friday night home crowds can do their part.....
Milwaukee -7.5
League: 106-29 SU (64-66-5...Av. win 8.6) home 5+ fav, 1 day rest off 10- ats loss, but SU win as home 5+ fav. [Mil]
47-9 SU (30-22-4...Av. win 10.4) if opp was last at home.
16-1 SU (11-4-2...Av. win 13.0!) (15-2 ats this no.) if opp off home 10- ats win.
9-1 ats (Av. win 12.7) if they were fav's.
Mil: 23-7 SU (15-15-1...Av. win 10.1) home -> home, 1 day rest, 5+ fav.
Mil: 25-4 SU (19-10...Av. win 11.6) home 5+ fav v. team off 10- ats win.
Mil: 10-5 ats (Av. win 12.7) if that win was at home.
League: 24-81 SU (43-57-5...Av. loss 8.0) away 5+ dog, 1 day rest off 10- ats win as home fav. [Mia]
8-40 SU (15-29-4...Av. loss 10.8) if opp was last at home.
Miami shot 54.3% last game v. Chicago and that's bound to crash.
Mil's big men (Skinner, Smith, Gadzuric and of course Mason) have been surprisingly (to me anyway!!) good so far, and should be able to get the better of Odom who pretty much plays a loine hand in the paint.
Boston -6
League: 150-29 SU (91-86-2...Av. win 10.4) home 5+ fav, 1 day rest off 10- ats win as home 5+ fav. [Bost]
81-14 SU (Av. win 10.4) if opp was last away.
48-6 SU (Av. win 10.5) if they lost SU as away dog.
25-4 SU (16-13...Av. win 12.2) if they won ats <10.
19-2 SU (11-10...Av. win 13.9) if they were dogs.
Bost: 29-8 SU (av. win 7.7) home -> home, 1 day 5+ favs.
Cleve: 7-43 SU (Av. loss 10.8) v. team in that situation. (0-2 this season...inc. 82-91 loss @ Bost.)
League: 31-105 SU (Av. loss 9.4) away 5+ dog, 1 day rest off 10- ats win as away 5+ dog. [Cleve]
14-61 SU (Av. loss 10.1) if opp were at home.
6-37 SU (19-24...Av. loss 12.1) if they were 5+ favs.
3-17 (Av. win 14.2) if they won ats.
Cleve: 5-29 SU (14-20...Av. loss 11.9) away -> away, 1 day rest as 5+ dog.
Bost: 17-5 SU (av. win 9.1) v. teams in that situation....Holding teams to 88.9 ppg, bad news for a Cav's team av. only 86.6 ppg on the road this season.
Bost won @ Cleveland 105-98 in Dec, where they scored 42 points in the paint to 28. (Admittedly Baker had 16 points, but Mihm likely to match that, plus pull down more rebounds too.)
Toronto -6
League: 125-33 SU (Av. win 8.8) home 5+ fav, 1 day off 10- ats loss as home 5+ fav. [Tor]
19-3 SU (Av. win 9.4) if opp off 10+ ats away loss.
League: 5-47 SU (Av. loss 12.6) away 5+ dog, 1 day off 10+ ats loss as away 5+ dog. [LAC]
2-28 SU (12-17-1...Av. loss 14.0) if opp was last at home.
0-12 SU (Av. loss 16.0!) if opp lost ats last game.
LAC: 6-30 SU (16-20...Av. loss 10.8) away -> away, 1 day 5+ dog.
Tor: 19-2 SU (Av. win 7.2) v. team in that situation.
LAC: 3-25 SU (10-18...Av. loss 12.8) away 5+ dog off 10+ ats loss.
I made note the other day (NJ game) how Clips give up big numbers on the road....
..."Clips play NO defense on the road, giving up over 101 ppg. They score only 93.1, but against what I would class as 'good defensive teams' they scored 78 @ Indi, 91 @ Min, 67 @ Utah, 85 @ Houst and 90 @ SA....Losing by 13, 12, 19, 14 and 21 respectively"......
...Since then they have scored 75 @ NJ and lost by 17 and 80 @ Philli and lost by 20.
Toronto are 7th in the NBA for FG% allowed and 6th for points allowed.
Clips should find it tough to post a competative score here again, esp. without Maggette.
Also looking very closely at Seattle -4, but the low line is kinda scaring me away!
Stats also show a reasonable advantage to the Lakers, but NO WAY am I going there! :thefinger
Good Luck all
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