nfl plays for 1/10-1/11

[AR182]

this weekend i like:

4*kc-3--indy looked unbeatable last weekend by crushing denver 41-10. but they were in a good spot vs. denver because last week's game was the 3rd straight road game for denver. this week i feel indy is in a bad spot because teams that score more than 35 points in their last game are 11-32-1 (25.5%) ats in post season road games, with those teams averaging 17.7 points in those games. also this will be kc's first post season game in a few years & teams that haven't been to a post season game in at least 3 years are 36-13 (73%) in their first playoff game (when not playing a team in a similar situation) & 26-5 ( 83.8%) ats in the last 31 games.

looking at this game statistically, kc averages 5.9 yards per play on offense vs. teams that combine to allow 5.2 yppl on defense. indy's below average defense allows an average of 5.3 yppl on defense to teams that average a combined 5.1 yppl on offense. as everybody knows indy's offense is also very good by averaging 5.8 yppl vs. teams that allow an average of 5.0 yppl. on defense. kc's defense is also below average by allowing 5.4 yppl vs. teams that average 5.0 yppl. on offense. but the stat that stands out for me is how much better kc's defense plays when they are playing at home, where they allow an average of 4.9 yppl.

finally, kc is undefeated this year at home, scoring 24 or more points in each game & have won 13 straight games at home. indy is 5-22 ( 18.5 %) su/ats in games they allow 24 or more when playing off back to back wins.

good luck

 

[THE KOD]

Re: nfl plays for 1/10-1/11

finally, kc is undefeated this year at home, scoring 24 or more points in each game & have won 13 straight games at home. indy is 5-22 ( 18.5 %) su/ats in games they allow 24 or more when playing off back to back wins.

good luck

.....................................................................

AR182

This right here tells me what the winning play is. I don't need
to read anything else about this game.

good luck on your play.


KOD

 

[ajoytoy]

great info once again AR!

lets get it


toy

 

[Scott4USC]

Wow, Great Write-up. Thanks for taking the time to do it, i appreciate it. I was thinking about bettin KC big and now i am feeling more confident. I would like to know the strength of your plays. 1-5 stars? Also are 4 star plays for you rare? Thanks and good luck.

 

[THE KOD]

AR

No disrepect to you here and I am not posting this anywhere else.
But I am playing Indy and the points for a medium size play.

The Chiefs have played above their game.

I have seen others say the public play is Ind Colts as they
won big vs Denver and all that.

I am positive the public play is actually Kansas City.
Consistancy, home record, and running game is clouding
the publics perception as they make their wagers.
Of course thats no guarantee of a win. The public is right sometimes. I just don't want to be with them when I wager.

Manning takes it to the next level.

Good luck. It should be a great game.

KOD

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Good write-up AR.....

Even better backflip from the KOD!!!!!.....

 

[AR182]

1*under 37(120)ne/tenn.--played this when lines first came out. tenn. offense is banged up & ne gives up about 10 points per game at home. also like that these two teams combined to scored 68 points when they played earlier this year. also like what shamrock wrote in his post about weather & field conditions.



scott/atlanta--thanks for the well wishes. i don't take it as disrespect that you are taking indy. i saw on another site that 57% are on indy & 43 % are on kc. you may be right. but i think kc is in a good situation for this game & especially like their running game vs. indy's defense.


scott/usc---first congrats on your big win on usc. my normal rating is 1*& my highest rating is 10*, which is very rare for me. 4* means that i lfeel this is a very good play. but don't go by me since i have had a disappointing year.

toy & pawaqatsi,

thanks for the props.

good luck!!

 

[AR182]

hit the under yesterday in the n.e./tenn. game. today i will play:

4*kc-2.5(130)--don't think i will need it, but bought the 1/2 point anyway. i gave my reasons for this play in my previous post, but found some other info that people might find interesting:

indy is 0-31 ats in their last 31 su losses.

home teams in this round of the playoffs are 38-3 ats when they score 28 or more points.


2*over 40.5(130) phil/gb---basically coattailing 6th sense & fletcher on this play. but do like this because we have two dynamic qb's vs. average defenses & think the over is very reachable.


good luck!!

 

[boilermaker]

Good Luck AR. Like the Chiefs today also.