Big Big Big Huge Monday

[Nickelback]

Can anyone guess where I'm going with this one? Lets just call this Game of the Year #1 as we may have other plays later on that rate as high as this one, but it will be very difficult.

Missouri -4 (play it up to 5 if you have to) over Cuse GOY

Believe it or not, this will be Syracuse's FIRST true road game of the year. . . they played St. Bonny on a neutral court well over a month ago and that has been it. How the hell Cuse was able to pull this off, I will never know. But they have basically bought themselves a spot in the Top 25 because of their schedule. They lost their first game of the year against NC Charlotte but have rattled off the rest including a nice dd win over Michigan State (who hasn't been able to whip this team?) and just this past Saturday a blowout over Boston College (their most impressive win). Take a closer look at BC and you won't be that impressed with their wins. . . only their record looks good which goes the same for Syracuse.

Missouri on the other hand has played several very good teams including a one point loss to Illinois, loss to Gonzaga away, huge win over Iowa followed by a loss at Iowa State. And lets not forget about the loss to Belmont at home during the holidays (lol). No chance the Tigers overlook the defending champs. In their most recent performance, the Tigers beat Texas A&M by only 5 even though they basically led the entire way and had double digit leads at certain times (I followed this game close while it was being played as I knew this game was coming up against Cuse). Perhaps a look ahead to Monday but either way, not a concern to me. Tigers will be pumped up and ready to go.

Let's not forget to mention this is a system play. And given that Vegas has made Missouri a definite favorite (instead of making them a soft 1 or 2 point favorite) making this a very very solid system play. Another factor that I consider for these system plays are consensus percentages. . . so far it looks like Cuse is a consensus play and hopefully it continues as it only strengthens these kind of plays further. Anybody who plays Cuse will be playing them for the wrong reasons as they simply haven't been tested on the road yet but the public should bite on them based on their record and ranking. Both misleading factors to consider when others are clearly missing.

I could ramble on and on. . . but there's no reason to! Play this one and play this one hard. All aboard!


I may have other plays, but nothing close to this one for obvious reasons.

 

[west coast guru]

Nickel good luck tomorrow. I guess it sounds like you kind of like this play. What % are you playing it at?

 

[Nickelback]

Its gutsy my friend. . . but my account is high enough for me to play this without losing too much ground that I can't cover:

15%

You will see most cappers play their GOYs at a lower percentage but I have always played my bankroll a little more aggressive.

These type of plays don't come along very often. . . I mean seriously, I don't remember a team going into their conference play (I know this isn't a conference play but its that time of the year) without playing a true road game! LOL. . . maybe Hawaii, but cmon.

 

[west coast guru]

Lets do it! I am 1-6 with your plays with the one hit being huge. Lets step it up and go 2-6 with huge profit. I only play big when you sound confident. I guess you sound kinda confident! J/K Good luck tomorrow and lets kick some butt.

 

[Nickelback]

Gl buddy. . . if you want to tail me, you should consider just playing them all. . . I have no idea what my record is and I honestly don't care because I look at my account and know it has been a good basketball season up to this point. On the flip side, in college football I knew it was a bad season just by looking at my account for that particular sport.

This play should come in, but by no means should you play it any more than you feel comfortable.

 

[acer69]

Nickelback, the thing that scares me is that Quinn Snyder could be one of the worst floor coaches in the nation. (Great Recruiter). He is absolutely pathetic and in the college ranks, I put a whole lot of stock in the coaching aspect. His team has no structure and has no discipline, Its almost like watching ESPN 2's streetball w/ Hotsauce, High octane etc.. I am from the area and the radio stations are all over Quinns head. Maybe they turn it around here.:shrug: GL2A.

 

[west coast guru]

Nickel I know I stated that before that if you are going to follow someone then you should play every play they do. The problem is I do not get home from work until around 7 and miss some of your plays etc. Sometimes you have halftimes. I wish I could, but I have to spot play. Not complaining about my record with you or your record for that fact. I know you make money or I would not follow you. Hey isn't Seton Hall a system play also?

 

[west coast guru]

Nickel I really like San Diego St at home. I have been following this BYU team and they really struggle on the road. They are a perimeter team and they are normally cold on the road. I know San Diego St. is really tough at home. I am shocked Byu is a favorite.:shrug:

 

[Nickelback]

acer,

You raise a valid point. . .I suppose the best way to respond to this is to say that at least there are certain spots where they have obviously been disciplined in order to get the job done (like against Iowa). This should be another spot where we see them focused on the task at hand.

Again, this is by no means a guarantee. . . but if you play these kind of plays hard year in and year out, you will have a nice account when you decide to take it out years later That being said, you must be consistent when you play them. . . you can't just toss one of them out because you think the team may fool around on the court!

Unfortunately there will be losses along the way but they should be few and far between.


West Coast,

Yes, I have looked at that one and agree its the home team or nothing. I also like Colorado State at home. Not sure if I will even play them though given the size of this play.

 

[mjalam]

gl, i just was wondering a couple days ago when arizona played stanford....why did you go against your own advice...u told me if the number was lower than like 7 or something that vegas wanted money on arizona and over 7 they wanted money on stanford...yet the line was about 4.5 and you picked arizona money line...how come you went against your own advice?

but thanks anyway, cuz i took stanford and that was an easy win for them

 

[Ranstl]

I wouldn't go to wild on Mizzou. This team is still struggling. And they have had a terrible time with zone defenses. Syracuse is one of the best zone teams around. I think mizzou will turn it around but they are not a very confident team.
Also agree that Quinn is not a very good coach. One hell of a recruiter but he has a way to go to become a good coach.
I know the trend your playing tonight but I would tread lightly.
I'm taking all the points I can get with a small play on the Cuse.
GL

 

[Nickelback]

MJ,

Actually, Vegas released the line at six (not four and a half) and it was bet down to the line that you first saw. I figured that line was close enough but obviously those who played it initially down by taking Stanford knew what they were doing! When it comes to Arizona, I will never bet against them but instead will try and pick my spots when I think they are receiving good value. . . this was one of those times and I lost an average bet.

 

[gman2]

nickel:

cant say i disagree. i do think missouri sacks up and wins this game by 7 or 8 pts.

only thing is that i cant say im truly surprised by the line. missouri is a very public team as well. theres been a heavy consensus on them all year, regardless of their opponent. and while theyre not ranked now, i think that their preseason ranking is something thats not forgotten.

of course, that helps here --- youre getting a good team that is more than capable of getting it done. talent clearly there. just a matter of them putting it together.

gl bud. very best of luck. hope you hit it.

 

[Nickelback]

I still see a 60% consensus on Cuse. . . we'll see if it lasts.

Ranstl,

I had an Iowa fan tell me the same thing about their team struggling last week yet they performed quite well against Purdue. Hopefully the same happens this time around! Gl with your play.

 

[Spiro]

all over it thanks

 

[bej0101]

thanks and gl

 

[Unicorn]

I was just about to add that even though Mizz is a public team due to all the hype they receive, so is Cuse, so it will be interesting to see where the consensus lies when this game tips. Hopefully Mizz will start a lot stronger than they have been during their other big game losses (ie Illinois, Iowa St, etc.). It seems it takes awhile for their shooters to warm up and I also attribute it to Johnson inconsistencie in the post.

Good luck on the play

 

[Felonious Monk]

Quin still strikes me as a guy who would hit up an occasional rave every now and then.

It's pretty safe to say that he is the basketball's version of Mack Brown, does less with more. A good team that loses at home to Belmont has some serious issues. Whoever said they remind them of the And 1 street ballers was dead on. They can stroke the 3 ball and are very athletic but they lack discipline and that usually translates to losses when they're not consistent. And that's the problem when capping this team...you never know when they'll show up. Bettor's nightmare IMO.

Hope you hit this one Nickel. Not playing it myself but I'll be rooting for you. I admire your large sack!

 

[Nickelback]

Appreciate the positive comments. . . line is now up to 5.5 at Olympic. . . definitely a good sign IMO

 

[MAJOR MARTY]

==== ALTERNATE THINKING ====

==== ALTERNATE THINKING ====

==== Nickel, I HIGHLY RESPECT YOUR HANDICAPPING AND AM ONLY POSTING SOME INFO FOR OTHERS TO CONSIDER BEFORE WAGERING. <p> (1) SINCE THE ADDITION OF PULLEY AND CONLEY ---- THERE AREN'T ENOUGH BASKETBALLS TO GO AROUND IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN (EVERYBODY WANTS THE ROCK)<p> (2) FROM A COACHING STAND POINT SNYDER IS LIGHT YEARS BEHIND BOEHEIM ON THE FLOOR<p> (3) THERE ARE SOME HUGE DISTRACTIONS (SKELETONS) LURKING IN THE CLOSET IN COLUMBIA <p> (4) THE ORANGEMEN AREN'T CHOPPED LIVER ! EVEN WITHOUT 'MELO THEY ARE FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND WITH LEADERSHIP ENOUGH TO PLAY ON THE ROAD AND WIN STRAIGHT UP ! IT'S POSSIBLE <p> IS THIS A SPOT TO WAGER GOY UNITS, OBVIOUSLY YOU THINK SO, PERSONALLY I'D HOLD OFF ON THE TIGERS AT THIS POINT IN THE SEASON WITH THE BAGGAGE THEY'RE CARRYING ! <p> BEST OF LUCK TO YOU ON THE LARGE WAGER !!