NCAAB POSTS YTD: 4-1
Picked this one up at Pinnacle as soon as it came out. I realize how public of a team that Gonzaga is, and that St. Mary's is not exactly flying high on people's radar screen, but I just think this line is way off and don't see it getting any higher. If it does go higher, it will likely be close to game time as public bettors try the ole' ESPN2 Saturday night bailout special by doubling up to cover losses from earlier in the day. That type of money will undoubtedly go on those Gonzaga media darlings. IMO, if any bettors try to do that this Saturday night, bookies across the nation will be smiling ear-to-ear come Sunday morning. I will be smiling along with them because if this line does by chance rise, I will just add more to this play. I feel that strongly about it.
I think this game sets up very nicely for the large road dog here. In fact, it seems eerily similar to the Seton Hall-Providence game earlier this week, where I liked the points with Providence. Just like Seton Hall, Gonzaga is playing great basketball winning the last six by double digits, including a couple on the road against WCC opponents Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount. But the teams they have played over this stretch are below average to average in my estimation and not of the same ability as this St. Mary's squad, a similar situation seen when a solid Providence squad traveled to face a Seton Hall team that was on a tear. Just as I pointed out in my Hall-Providence write-up, blowout victories tend to sap line value over time, even when they are against average competition, and then when a much better team comes in, well, that is where you get super line value. The only thing that could have given the Gaels more line value here would have been a loss at Portland last night. I have to admit that I was kind of hoping for that, but that only gives them positive momentum heading into this showdown. They simply had too much for Portland last night. That's OK, because Gonzaga's thrashing of an absolutely pathetic road team, USF, last night and their absolute dominance at home this year, still has this line greatly inflated IMHO.
While in recent history, the WCC has seen Pepperdine, USF, Santa Clara, and of course, Gonzaga as perennial front-runners, I whole-heartedly feel that this year is different. While Gonzaga is still there in full-effect, I whole-heartedly feel that the only team that stands a fighting chance to contend with these Bulldogs, this year, is the SMC Gaels.
Randy Bennett and his staff are quietly building a very solid program at SMC. Bennett has always held a "defense first" philosophy and has always gotten his players to buy into it, as evidenced by the 64.1 ppg allowed since Bennett inherited the program. This year they are holding opponents to 37.9% FGs and 27.6% 3-FGs, ranking them 1st in the WCC in both categories. That leads me to believe that Blake Stepp and Co. will not have it as easy on Saturday night, and the Bulldogs eye-opening 50% FG shooting average for the year, will be difficult to obtain. Shots will be tightly contested and anyway, I am betting that Blake Stepp isn't likely to follow up that unconscious performance he had against the Dons last night, even if he was left open.....but he and his teammates won't be.
The real difference between this year and past years for SMC is that they are complementing their typical tough defense with some offensive punch, too. They are shooting 45.8% from the field. The nice balance has led them to nine non-conference wins, including some impressive "moral" victories, like hanging tough with Arizona on the road. This team truly has some talent on the offensive side of the ball. They also have the height to match up with Gonzo. Taking a look at their rebounding is also a telling stat. The Gaels have a +7 rebounding advantage over their opponents. This is the part of the stat sheet that can turn an average team into a good one, and a good team into a great one. Rebounding is more than just height advantage and technique, it has just as much to do with hustle, effort, and determination. Those are all characteristics that I love for a team to have when they are catching 16 points! It proves to me that they are scrappy and they won't quit even if they happen to get behind early.
Another thing I like is that St. Mary's actually has decent depth to match up with Gonzaga. Hell, their sixth man came off the bench last night at Portland to drop in 30 points and grab 8 boards! Adding to that depth matchup would be if Rony Turiaf is not 100% after a wrist injury. He certainly wasn't missed Thursday night, but that was against the hapless Dons. His production of 4 points on the night makes me think he might still be less than full strength for this contest. He means a great deal to this Gonzaga team.
Maybe I'm looking into this too deep, or I am just crazy to go against this Gonzaga team at home, when they seemingly are hitting on all cylinders, but I just can't pass up the value that I personally see here. I look at these two teams on paper and see so many similarities in coaching, style, size, and effort. Of course, the Bulldogs have the edge in pure talent and have more experience in big games, but this St. Mary's squad isn't just a bunch of freshmen and sophomores newbies, either. The 16 points are very generous here. No question, Gonzaga has swept this series for the last five seasons, but I look for St. Mary's to at least keep this one competitive throughout as they open some eyes to another WCC team that is pretty damn good this year. Bottomline: St. Mary's is a basketball program that is on the rise. As long as they are under the tutelage of Randy Bennett, I feel they will soon take over one of those spots as a perennial contender in the WCC. Though, you are welcome to disagree with me, I think this team has arrived this year and are looking to make some noise now that conference play has started. What better time to show it than a nationally televised game against Gonzaga?? IMO, the linesmakers were forced to put this one out so high, purely out of public perception and recent performances by Gonzaga. I'm not buying it.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
Picked this one up at Pinnacle as soon as it came out. I realize how public of a team that Gonzaga is, and that St. Mary's is not exactly flying high on people's radar screen, but I just think this line is way off and don't see it getting any higher. If it does go higher, it will likely be close to game time as public bettors try the ole' ESPN2 Saturday night bailout special by doubling up to cover losses from earlier in the day. That type of money will undoubtedly go on those Gonzaga media darlings. IMO, if any bettors try to do that this Saturday night, bookies across the nation will be smiling ear-to-ear come Sunday morning. I will be smiling along with them because if this line does by chance rise, I will just add more to this play. I feel that strongly about it.
I think this game sets up very nicely for the large road dog here. In fact, it seems eerily similar to the Seton Hall-Providence game earlier this week, where I liked the points with Providence. Just like Seton Hall, Gonzaga is playing great basketball winning the last six by double digits, including a couple on the road against WCC opponents Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount. But the teams they have played over this stretch are below average to average in my estimation and not of the same ability as this St. Mary's squad, a similar situation seen when a solid Providence squad traveled to face a Seton Hall team that was on a tear. Just as I pointed out in my Hall-Providence write-up, blowout victories tend to sap line value over time, even when they are against average competition, and then when a much better team comes in, well, that is where you get super line value. The only thing that could have given the Gaels more line value here would have been a loss at Portland last night. I have to admit that I was kind of hoping for that, but that only gives them positive momentum heading into this showdown. They simply had too much for Portland last night. That's OK, because Gonzaga's thrashing of an absolutely pathetic road team, USF, last night and their absolute dominance at home this year, still has this line greatly inflated IMHO.
While in recent history, the WCC has seen Pepperdine, USF, Santa Clara, and of course, Gonzaga as perennial front-runners, I whole-heartedly feel that this year is different. While Gonzaga is still there in full-effect, I whole-heartedly feel that the only team that stands a fighting chance to contend with these Bulldogs, this year, is the SMC Gaels.
Randy Bennett and his staff are quietly building a very solid program at SMC. Bennett has always held a "defense first" philosophy and has always gotten his players to buy into it, as evidenced by the 64.1 ppg allowed since Bennett inherited the program. This year they are holding opponents to 37.9% FGs and 27.6% 3-FGs, ranking them 1st in the WCC in both categories. That leads me to believe that Blake Stepp and Co. will not have it as easy on Saturday night, and the Bulldogs eye-opening 50% FG shooting average for the year, will be difficult to obtain. Shots will be tightly contested and anyway, I am betting that Blake Stepp isn't likely to follow up that unconscious performance he had against the Dons last night, even if he was left open.....but he and his teammates won't be.
The real difference between this year and past years for SMC is that they are complementing their typical tough defense with some offensive punch, too. They are shooting 45.8% from the field. The nice balance has led them to nine non-conference wins, including some impressive "moral" victories, like hanging tough with Arizona on the road. This team truly has some talent on the offensive side of the ball. They also have the height to match up with Gonzo. Taking a look at their rebounding is also a telling stat. The Gaels have a +7 rebounding advantage over their opponents. This is the part of the stat sheet that can turn an average team into a good one, and a good team into a great one. Rebounding is more than just height advantage and technique, it has just as much to do with hustle, effort, and determination. Those are all characteristics that I love for a team to have when they are catching 16 points! It proves to me that they are scrappy and they won't quit even if they happen to get behind early.
Another thing I like is that St. Mary's actually has decent depth to match up with Gonzaga. Hell, their sixth man came off the bench last night at Portland to drop in 30 points and grab 8 boards! Adding to that depth matchup would be if Rony Turiaf is not 100% after a wrist injury. He certainly wasn't missed Thursday night, but that was against the hapless Dons. His production of 4 points on the night makes me think he might still be less than full strength for this contest. He means a great deal to this Gonzaga team.
Maybe I'm looking into this too deep, or I am just crazy to go against this Gonzaga team at home, when they seemingly are hitting on all cylinders, but I just can't pass up the value that I personally see here. I look at these two teams on paper and see so many similarities in coaching, style, size, and effort. Of course, the Bulldogs have the edge in pure talent and have more experience in big games, but this St. Mary's squad isn't just a bunch of freshmen and sophomores newbies, either. The 16 points are very generous here. No question, Gonzaga has swept this series for the last five seasons, but I look for St. Mary's to at least keep this one competitive throughout as they open some eyes to another WCC team that is pretty damn good this year. Bottomline: St. Mary's is a basketball program that is on the rise. As long as they are under the tutelage of Randy Bennett, I feel they will soon take over one of those spots as a perennial contender in the WCC. Though, you are welcome to disagree with me, I think this team has arrived this year and are looking to make some noise now that conference play has started. What better time to show it than a nationally televised game against Gonzaga?? IMO, the linesmakers were forced to put this one out so high, purely out of public perception and recent performances by Gonzaga. I'm not buying it.
Good Luck to All,
-JC
