NFC/AFC Championships

[Senor Capper]

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

Earlier in the year the Eagles beat the Panthers in Carolina 25-16, but the games was tougher than the score indicated. Carolina had 2 more FDs, over 50 more total yards, more net rushing yards and 1 less turnover.
Point being Carolina can "hang" with this Eagles team.
Obviously Kasay better be "on" this time around.


Eagles continue on a 11-1 SU run, as well as 10-of-12 vs the points.

The Dog has covered all but 4 times in Carolina games this season.

Quoting the ESPN Insider.........
The Eagles feed off mistakes by their opponents at critical times, but the Panthers don't beat themselves, and they won't hand this game over.


Nothing finer than betting Carolina Sunday evening.


Carolina Panthers + 4.5
(and small moneyline play for the very possible UPSET) :yup

====================================


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots -3.5


Much tougher matchup here.

New England.
How can a person bet against this team ? 13 straight wins, as well a a 9-0 SU record at home& 8-1 ATS.
I can and have. How bout those Titans?

Indianapolis counters with an impressive 8-1 in road wins and haven't punted yet in the Playoffs.

Patsies "D" has been a key all season as it has now allowed only 3 TDs & 36 pts in New Englands last 7 HGs (5.1 ppg).
Gotta have the highest respect for that Patriot "D" but the smok'in "O" of the Colts seems unprecedented (70, 81, 80, 87, 70, 76 & 71 1st half TD drives the past 2 weeks).

The fact that the Colts "D" were stung for 146 & 196 RYs in those 2 wins (5.6 & 6.5 ypr) won't escape Belichick (sp), but the Patsies ranked just 27th in rushing "O".


Earlier in the year Mannings 3 TD passes brought the Colts back from a 31-0 deficit in the 3rd, tying it 31-31 before going down 38-34.

Combining against Denver and at KC, Manning connected on 44-of-56 for 681 yards and 8 TDs w/ Harrison recording 13 catches for 231 yards. Granted my beloved Chiefs ranked 29th in total "D" but the Broncos fielded the 3rd best "D" in the NFL.


Manning WILL keep the Colts within the spread and may very well pull an upset in Foxboro.

Indianapolis Colts + 3.5
(and will dabble with the moneyline) :yup


==============================

Best to all

SC

5-3-0 Post Season
83-63-5 Regular Season

 

[Fabulous]

Best of luck SC.

I agree with you on Carolina, but strongly disagree with you on N.E./ Indy. Thats why this is gambling, there is no sure thing. I already teased Indy +10.5/Carolina +12 with my local, but I will take NE straight up as the line is at -3 right now and hopefully will go down to -2.5. I like NE to win this game but I dont see them covering a 10.5 spread thats why I teased Indy at 10.5. I am going to tease NE and Carolina when I take NE straight up. Should be a good game but I see NE winning by 6 or 7.

Good luck.

 

[Senor Capper]

Divisional Playoffs
Records: Divisional Playoff --- Playoff ---Regular Season


Glazer ----------2-2-0 ----------- 4-4-0 --- 136-110-10
Patriots -3 Panthers +4

Prisco -----------4-0-0 ----------- 7-1-0 --- 135-111-10
Colts +3 Panthers +4

Fabiano ---------2-2-0 ----------- 4-4-0 --- 127-119-10
Colts +3 Eagles -4

Harmon ----------2-2-0 ---------- 5-3-0 --- 124-122-10
Colts +3 Eagles -4

Bromberg --------2-2-0 ---------- 5-3-0 --- 124-122-10
Colts +3 Eagles -4

 

[Senor Capper]

Vegas Bookies Contest...

Playoffs

Palms 7-1 Ind Car
Rampart 7-1 Ind Car
Stratosphere 7-1 Ind Phi

Ballys 6-2 Ind Car
Barbary Coast 6-2 Ind Car
Flamingo 6-2 Ind Car
Imperial Palace 6-2 NE Phi
Leroys ??? Ind Car

 

[gordon liddy]

Good Luck - Agree with them Both

 

[Senor Capper]

Tout Pubs

Tout Pubs

Gold Sheet NE 30-20
Phil Steele NE 24-20
Power Sweep NE 26-18
PointWise Ind 30-27

-------------------------------

Gold Sheet Car 19-17
Phil Steele Phi 27-17
Power Sweep Phi 27-10
PointWise Phi 20-19

------------------------------

 

[Senor Capper]

Colts juggernaut rolls into Foxboro

Colts juggernaut rolls into Foxboro

ESPN Insider
Thursday, January 15



JamesWatching Peyton Manning before the snap of the ball is like watching a band leader. As the Colts break the huddle, Manning has three plays called. He calls a running play and a passing play, and the third play generally depends on the situation. The offense gets up to the line of scrimmage and set with 10 to 15 seconds left, allowing Manning to look over the defense. He can then pick the play he wants to run. Before the snap, Manning and the offensive line are pointing fingers and constantly talking to each other. Part of this orchestration is real, and part of it is to keep the defense off-balance. But make no mistake about it -- Manning and the offense know exactly what they're doing, and they are amazingly calm under pressure, which greatly benefits them in a hostile road environment.

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has a very basic defensive philosophy. He schemes to take the opposition's best offensive weapon out of the game, forcing complementary players to beat him. A lot of coaches talk about taking away your best weapon, but Belichick is one of the best at getting it done. This week, the Patriots will focus on shutting down QB Peyton Manning and forcing RB Edgerrin James to win it.

As prolific and explosive as the Colts' offense is, they seem to struggle in the red zone. This was never more apparent then in their last meeting with the Patriots. The Colts failed to score on four shots from the 2-yard line. One of the biggest reasons they have struggled inside the red zone has been injuries. They lost both fullbacks -- Detron Smith and James Mungro -- along with TE Dallas Clark for the season. All three were key parts of their goal-line blocking schemes, and Clark was a great receiving threat. A big part of the "chess game" between the Colts offense and the Patriots defense will be played in the red zone. As a result, this game could come down to another goal-line stand for the Patriots.

The key to this game will be execution. When you watch both of these teams on film, you are amazed by the consistency of the Colts' offense and the Patriots' defense. Both units have been together for a while, their coaches have remained constant and their veteran players know their roles, so they are rarely out of position. There won't be many mental breakdowns on Sunday. It is a rare match-up that could be an all-time NFL classic.

Manning is in a zone through his first two playoff games, and a lot of fans are wondering why he is playing so well in the postseason now. One of the reasons is that both teams that he has beaten, Denver and Kansas City, played cover-2 defensive schemes, and Manning shredded them. He will see a completely different defense this week. In their last meeting in November, Manning struggled against man-to-man schemes, but when the Patriots went to some cover-2 looks, he picked them apart. It will be surprising if Manning sees anything but man-to-man coverage on Sunday.

Although PT Hunter Smith has not had to punt in either of the Colts' first two playoff games, his contribution as the holder on PAT's and field goal attempts has been outstanding. Smith has excellent hands, does a nice job of handling bad snaps and most importantly PK Mike Vanderjagt has confidence in him.

Tom Brady completed passes to 10 different receivers in last week's win over the Titans, and he was rarely pressured, as the Titans decided to play coverage schemes rather than blitz. Theses schemes allowed Brady to complete a lot of passes underneath, with the Titans focused on making tackles in space immediately after the catch. The Colts likely will rush four and drop seven, which would put them in position to keep the passing game in front of them. They will have the same problems Tennessee had if the front four doesn't get to Brady.


WaynePatriots DC Tyrone Poole had a tough night last week, and Manning likely will target him in the passing game. If Poole draws a single-coverage match-up working against WR Reggie Wayne, the Colts will have the advantage.

The Patriots' defense seemed to play more conservatively than usual against the Titans in an effort to prevent the big play. Against a conservative, ball-control offense like the Titans, this approach worked. But it won't work agasint the Colts and Manning, who excels at picking apart soft, prevent-type defenses. The best way to stop him is to hurry his throws with pressure.
Key match-ups to watch:


Patriots LOT Matt Light vs. Colts RDE Dwight Freeney

Colts LOG Rick DeMulling vs. Patriots RDE Richard Seymour

Patriots ILB Tedy Bruschi vs. Colts RB Edgerrin James

Colts WR Marvin Harrison vs. Patriots DC Ty Law

Patriots WR Troy Brown vs. Colts DC Walt Harris

Colts TE Marcus Pollard vs. Patriots SS Rodney Harrison

Colts WR Brandon Stokley vs. Patriots Nickel DC Asante Samuel

Colts QB Peyton Manning vs. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

Patriots PK Adam Vinatieri vs. Colts PK Mike Vanderjagt


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's a breakdown as we saw it early in the week:

Any concerns about QB Peyton Manning's guts going gooey in big games are gone. In a chilly match-up on natural grass, amid deafening crowd noise on the road, Manning made NFL playoff football look easy against Kansas City last week. Better yet, RB Edgerrin James appeared to just be hitting his stride, which means as much to Indianapolis' passing game (much of which is predicated on play action) as it does for the run.

New England has few weaknesses on defense, but the Colts' receiver depth will cause the Patriots problems. From there, Manning can dictate matchups -- an art at which he has become one of the great masters. Pats QB Tom Brady isn't too shabby himself, and his match-ups might be superior to those of Manning. Too bad he won't get support enough from his running game to keep the Colts from blanketing the field with a zone and sitting on his routes.

When Indianapolis has the ball ...
Indianapolis running game vs. New England run defense
Though the Colts often are considered a passing team, they showed great discipline and offensive balance (32:30 run-pass play ratio) in their win over the Chiefs. Not only does Indianapolis' running game keep defenses honest, it enhances the effectiveness of QB Manning's play-action package.



HarrisonStill, no one will confuse the Patriots' run defense (ranked No. 4 during the regular season) with the Chiefs'. New England's front seven is stout, and SS Rodney Harrison plays like an extra linebacker in the box. With massive NT Ted Washington clogging the middle with RDE Richard Seymour, the Patriots' defensive front can occupy the Colts' offensive line and allow the linebackers to flow to the ball to make plays.
The Colts love the stretch run play, in which Manning gets the ball to RB Edgerrin James wide and James can wait for his hole and take advantage of cut-back opportunities. If the Colts' offensive tackles can seal the Patriots' defensive ends, OLBs Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel will be under pressure to make more plays in space. The Patriots will try some five-man fronts, but even those might have minimal effect. Manning has shown great resolve in denying opponents from dictating his play calling, and, to keep defenses honest, the Colts will run often, regardless of the front.

 

[Senor Capper]

Indianapolis passing game vs. New England pass defense



ManningManning is in a zone that few quarterbacks ever experience. In two playoff wins, he has thrown for 681 yards and eight touchdowns. His accuracy and decision making have been excellent, and he is shrewdly reading defenses and adjusting at the line of scrimmage.
Manning picked apart a Kansas City cover-2 scheme that was woefully weak over the middle, giving the Chiefs a steady dose of slant routes and crossing patterns to take advantage of the subpar cover skills of their safeties. The Patriots' pass defense is just average statistically, but it doesn't give up big plays (4.90 yards allowed per pass play, second in the league) and it makes plays of its own (league-high 29 interceptions).

New England will use a lot of combo coverage, playing man-to-man on CB Ty Law's side while playing mostly zone on the back side. When Law is matched up on Colts WR Marvin Harrison, the Pats will roll safety help to his side at times, but the Colts will counter by putting Harrison in motion and often using him as a decoy to capitalize on more favorable match-ups for WRs Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley.

The Patriots, with a combination of creative coverage schemes and blitzes, will give Manning far more varied looks than he is used to seeing. He must be patient at the line of scrimmage and try to lock the Patriots into a particular scheme before the snap.

When New England has the ball ...
New England running game vs. Indianapolis run defense
The Colts gave up 196 rushing yards to the Chiefs last week, but that means little to a Patriots team that ranked 27th in the league in rushing yards during the regular season. To their credit, the Patriots do try to run the ball and maintain offensive balance, as evidenced by their 27 carries (for 96 yards) last week against the Titans. But they have had trouble moving the ball even on flawed run defenses.

The Colts, who regularly fire their quick, penetrating defensive ends off the edges, typically play the run only on their way to the quarterback. But that gambling, attacking style leaves them open to quick hits inside. New England's offensive line will get some angles to create seams, but that doesn't suit the team's style. The Patriots might target the Colts' ends, especially Dwight Freeney, in an effort to negate their pass rush and force them to play more read-and-react schemes.

For its part, Indianapolis wants to sit back in its cover-2 to defend the pass, but if the Pats can establish the run early, Colts SS Mike Doss could be forced into the box in a greater run-support role, breaking the cover-2 and creating favorable match-ups for QB Brady.

New England passing game vs. Indianapolis pass defense


BradyPatience and accuracy are keys for Brady against the Colts' cover-2. Indianapolis' scheme is designed to deny the big play, but it has holes Brady can attack -- notably the deep middle of the field (using tight ends and backs) and the intermediate perimeter (using wide receivers).
The Colts probably won't blitz much, but because the Patriots don't want to limit Brady's options, their offensive line often will have to neutralize the Colts' quick front four without the blocking assistance of backs or tight ends. The Patriots' multiple-receiver sets could lure the Colts out of their base defense and get a safety or linebacker off the field, forcing them to play more man-to-man -- a huge match-up advantage for New England.

The Patriots also are productive on screen passes, and attacking the perimeter is a great way to move the ball on this defense, especially if the running game is struggling. Draw plays and quick hits can be effective for the Patriots, but first and foremost Brady must play under control.

Special teams

VanderjagtIndianapolis PK Mike Vanderjagt hasn't missed a field-goal attempt this year, and he has the leg strength to connect from beyond 50 yards. Vanderjagt doesn't always get great hang time on his kickoffs, though, and he must give his cover unit enough time to get downfield.
P Hunter Smith, who has yet to punt in the postseason, will sometimes out-kick his coverage. But he has the leg to kick the Colts out of trouble and is capable of pinning New England deep.

KOR Dominic Rhodes has enough elusiveness to make the first defender miss and has a second gear in the open field. PR Troy Walters explodes through seams and can change directions without losing much speed in transition.

Patriots PK Adam Vinatieri, who has been extremely inconsistent this season, missed a 44-yard field-goal try wide left last week. But he is great under pressure, and he is accustomed to kicking in cold weather.

P Ken Walter gets rid of the ball quickly and generally is accurate, but he doesn't get good distance on his kicks -- a big minus in a game in which field position could play an important role.

KOR Bethel Johnson is almost impossible to catch from behind, and he doesn't waste a lot of motion getting upfield. PR Troy Brown reads his blocks well and is elusive in the open field.

Edge
This is a classic match-up of two very intelligent teams that are playing at a high level and are full of confidence. The Colts have a balanced offense that can run and pass, and QB Peyton Manning has been almost perfect in the playoffs. He has spread the field and is using a variety of receivers.

However, he now faces the most complex defense in the NFL, and Bill Belichick will try to confuse Manning with blitzes and exotic coverage schemes in an effort to force mistakes and render the Colts' offense one dimensional.

The Patriots can move the ball on Indy's cover-2 defense, but it will take patience and accuracy by Tom Brady. The weakness of the Colts' defense is against the run, but it is doubtful the Patriots can take advantage of it.

The Colts' offensive balance will overshadow the Patriots' one-dimensional short passing game, and Manning will make enough plays against man-to-man coverage to give the Colts the margin of victory.

Prediction: Colts 27, Patriots 24

 

[Senor Capper]

Colts are poised to pull off upset

Colts are poised to pull off upset

ESPN Insider
Tuesday, January 13


Any concerns about QB Peyton Manning's guts going gooey in big games are gone. In a chilly match-up on natural grass, amid deafening crowd noise on the road, Manning made NFL playoff football look easy against Kansas City last week. Better yet, RB Edgerrin James appeared to just be hitting his stride, which means as much to Indianapolis' passing game (much of which is predicated on play action) as it does for the run.

New England has few weaknesses on defense, but the Colts' receiver depth will cause the Patriots problems. From there, Manning can dictate matchups -- an art at which he has become one of the great masters. Pats QB Tom Brady isn't too shabby himself, and his match-ups might be superior to those of Manning. Too bad he won't get support enough from his running game to keep the Colts from blanketing the field with a zone and sitting on his routes.

When Indianapolis has the ball ...
Indianapolis running game vs. New England run defense
Though the Colts often are considered a passing team, they showed great discipline and offensive balance (32:30 run-pass play ratio) in their win over the Chiefs. Not only does Indianapolis' running game keep defenses honest, it enhances the effectiveness of QB Manning's play-action package.



HarrisonStill, no one will confuse the Patriots' run defense (ranked No. 4 during the regular season) with the Chiefs'. New England's front seven is stout, and SS Rodney Harrison plays like an extra linebacker in the box. With massive NT Ted Washington clogging the middle with RDE Richard Seymour, the Patriots' defensive front can occupy the Colts' offensive line and allow the linebackers to flow to the ball to make plays.
The Colts love the stretch run play, in which Manning gets the ball to RB Edgerrin James wide and James can wait for his hole and take advantage of cut-back opportunities. If the Colts' offensive tackles can seal the Patriots' defensive ends, OLBs Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel will be under pressure to make more plays in space. The Patriots will try some five-man fronts, but even those might have minimal effect. Manning has shown great resolve in denying opponents from dictating his play calling, and, to keep defenses honest, the Colts will run often, regardless of the front.

Indianapolis passing game vs. New England pass defense



ManningManning is in a zone that few quarterbacks ever experience. In two playoff wins, he has thrown for 681 yards and eight touchdowns. His accuracy and decision making have been excellent, and he is shrewdly reading defenses and adjusting at the line of scrimmage.
Manning picked apart a Kansas City cover-2 scheme that was woefully weak over the middle, giving the Chiefs a steady dose of slant routes and crossing patterns to take advantage of the subpar cover skills of their safeties. The Patriots' pass defense is just average statistically, but it doesn't give up big plays (4.90 yards allowed per pass play, second in the league) and it makes plays of its own (league-high 29 interceptions).

New England will use a lot of combo coverage, playing man-to-man on CB Ty Law's side while playing mostly zone on the back side. When Law is matched up on Colts WR Marvin Harrison, the Pats will roll safety help to his side at times, but the Colts will counter by putting Harrison in motion and often using him as a decoy to capitalize on more favorable match-ups for WRs Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley.

The Patriots, with a combination of creative coverage schemes and blitzes, will give Manning far more varied looks than he is used to seeing. He must be patient at the line of scrimmage and try to lock the Patriots into a particular scheme before the snap.

When New England has the ball ...
New England running game vs. Indianapolis run defense
The Colts gave up 196 rushing yards to the Chiefs last week, but that means little to a Patriots team that ranked 27th in the league in rushing yards during the regular season. To their credit, the Patriots do try to run the ball and maintain offensive balance, as evidenced by their 27 carries (for 96 yards) last week against the Titans. But they have had trouble moving the ball even on flawed run defenses.

The Colts, who regularly fire their quick, penetrating defensive ends off the edges, typically play the run only on their way to the quarterback. But that gambling, attacking style leaves them open to quick hits inside. New England's offensive line will get some angles to create seams, but that doesn't suit the team's style. The Patriots might target the Colts' ends, especially Dwight Freeney, in an effort to negate their pass rush and force them to play more read-and-react schemes.

For its part, Indianapolis wants to sit back in its cover-2 to defend the pass, but if the Pats can establish the run early, Colts SS Mike Doss could be forced into the box in a greater run-support role, breaking the cover-2 and creating favorable match-ups for QB Brady.

New England passing game vs. Indianapolis pass defense



BradyPatience and accuracy are keys for Brady against the Colts' cover-2. Indianapolis' scheme is designed to deny the big play, but it has holes Brady can attack -- notably the deep middle of the field (using tight ends and backs) and the intermediate perimeter (using wide receivers).
The Colts probably won't blitz much, but because the Patriots don't want to limit Brady's options, their offensive line often will have to neutralize the Colts' quick front four without the blocking assistance of backs or tight ends. The Patriots' multiple-receiver sets could lure the Colts out of their base defense and get a safety or linebacker off the field, forcing them to play more man-to-man -- a huge match-up advantage for New England.

The Patriots also are productive on screen passes, and attacking the perimeter is a great way to move the ball on this defense, especially if the running game is struggling. Draw plays and quick hits can be effective for the Patriots, but first and foremost Brady must play under control.

Special teams



VanderjagtIndianapolis PK Mike Vanderjagt hasn't missed a field-goal attempt this year, and he has the leg strength to connect from beyond 50 yards. Vanderjagt doesn't always get great hang time on his kickoffs, though, and he must give his cover unit enough time to get downfield.
P Hunter Smith, who has yet to punt in the postseason, will sometimes out-kick his coverage. But he has the leg to kick the Colts out of trouble and is capable of pinning New England deep.

KOR Dominic Rhodes has enough elusiveness to make the first defender miss and has a second gear in the open field. PR Troy Walters explodes through seams and can change directions without losing much speed in transition.

Patriots PK Adam Vinatieri, who has been extremely inconsistent this season, missed a 44-yard field-goal try wide left last week. But he is great under pressure, and he is accustomed to kicking in cold weather.

P Ken Walter gets rid of the ball quickly and generally is accurate, but he doesn't get good distance on his kicks -- a big minus in a game in which field position could play an important role.

KOR Bethel Johnson is almost impossible to catch from behind, and he doesn't waste a lot of motion getting upfield. PR Troy Brown reads his blocks well and is elusive in the open field.

Edge
This is a classic match-up of two very intelligent teams that are playing at a high level and are full of confidence. The Colts have a balanced offense that can run and pass, and QB Peyton Manning has been almost perfect in the playoffs. He has spread the field and is using a variety of receivers.

However, he now faces the most complex defense in the NFL, and Bill Belichick will try to confuse Manning with blitzes and exotic coverage schemes in an effort to force mistakes and render the Colts' offense one dimensional.

The Patriots can move the ball on Indy's cover-2 defense, but it will take patience and accuracy by Tom Brady. The weakness of the Colts' defense is against the run, but it is doubtful the Patriots can take advantage of it.

The Colts' offensive balance will overshadow the Patriots' one-dimensional short passing game, and Manning will make enough plays against man-to-man coverage to give the Colts the margin of victory.

Prediction: Colts 27, Patriots 24

 

[Senor Capper]

Panthers pose problems for Philly

Panthers pose problems for Philly

ESPN Insider
Tuesday, January 13



DavisNot to discredit the importance of RB Stephen Davis, but Carolina's running game unquestionably is a group effort. That is why there shouldn't be a lot to worry about for the Panthers if Davis (quad) isn't able to go this week.
DeShaun Foster is a more-than-capable backup, and the Panthers' blocking has been strong and steady. QB Jake Delhomme and the passing game also are beginning to create better opportunities for Carolina's runners, rather than it always being the other way around. Still, running the ball in this match-up will be especially important, because Philadelphia will have an aggressive, playmaking defense and a frenzied crowd on their side.

The Eagles also will have QB Donovan McNabb, who will be under more pressure than ever to carry the load. The Panthers' secondary is weak, but McNabb doesn't have the perimeter weapons to take advantage. Meantime, Carolina's fast, active front seven could be very disruptive of the short passing game and scrambles that make McNabb and Philadelphia's offense go.

When Carolina has the ball ...
Carolina running game vs. Philadelphia run defense:



FosterThe most impressive thing about the Panthers is their unwavering commitment to what they do best: run. Even with star RB Davis out for much of the game last week, Carolina stuck to its game plan and got solid production from backups Foster and Nick Goings.
The team's blocking schemes are crisp, the offensive line traps as well as any unit around, and all of the backs show patience in letting blocks form. Whether or not Davis is healthy enough to play, the Panthers should get more mileage out of their ground game this week.

Philadelphia has an aggressive defense that Carolina can catch out of position on blitzes and stunts, popping big inside run plays. Foster can be effective in space on cut-back runs, so the Panthers will make every effort to get to the second level to attack and tie up the Eagles' smallish linebackers. That has become an easier proposition as injuries have left almost zero depth behind DTs Corey Simon and Darwin Walker and made both vulnerable to fatigue.

Carolina passing game vs. Philadelphia pass defense:
The Panthers' passing game is the most underrated unit left in the playoffs. The duo of QB Delhomme and WR Steve Smith is starting to look lethal, with Smith's ability to turn a short pass into a long gain giving an otherwise plodding offense some explosiveness.



DelhommeThe Eagles will play a lot of man-to-man coverage behind aggressive blitzes designed to confuse and hurry Delhomme. Early success in the run game for the Panthers will not only control the clock but also set up excellent play-action opportunities, on which Delhomme thrives. The more (and better) the Panthers run, the more success they will have in luring FS Brian Dawkins into the box, which puts Philadelphia in a bind in pass-defense situations.

As good as the Eagles have been over the years in man-to-man coverage, this secondary can be attacked on the perimeter, as 30-something CBs Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent (who is nursing a hip injury) no longer strike fear into opposing offenses.

Delhomme will pick his spots, taking his shots when Smith or WR Muhsin Muhammad get the right single-coverage match-up. The pressure is on the Panthers to protect Delhomme, so Carolina's running backs might have to contribute in blitz pick-up.

When Philadelphia has the ball ...
Philadelphia running game vs. Carolina run defense: With game-breaking RB Brian Westbrook out for the year, Philadelphia's best running back now is ... its quarterback. Of the Eagles' 164 rushing yards last week, 107 came on scrambles by QB McNabb. And just as important, McNabb had 11 carries, indicating that his running was a big part of the game plan all along.



MinterKeeping that in mind, the Panthers likely will spy McNabb, perhaps with SS Mike Minter, their most instinctive defensive back and best open-field tackler. The threat won't be merely up the middle, where McNabb usually scrambles, but also on the perimeter, where he is rolling out more often. And the onus will be on the entire Panthers defense to read and react to run or pass, regardless of McNabb's location on the field.

The Eagles won't be able to run the ball inside on DTs Kris Jenkins and Brentson Buckner and LB Dan Morgan, who will force RBs Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter wide. That means DEs Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker will have to avoid getting hooked on the edges. The Eagles will pull their offensive line on sweeps and off-tackle plays, but the real key to their run game may be their blockers' ability to move and make contact on the second level when McNabb drops back to pass and then scrambles.

Philadelphia passing game vs. Carolina pass defense:



McNabbThough Philadelphia threw for only 199 yards against Green Bay, McNabb was efficient and controlled, using eight different receivers and hitting a back or tight end on 11 of 21 completions. The Eagles don't stretch defenses, but their low-risk passing game minimizes turnovers and is a decent substitute for a consistent power run game.
The Panthers -- whose philosophy is to drop seven and rush four, controlling the line of scrimmage with their defensive line -- will not blitz as much as the Packers did. But after watching Green Bay drop McNabb for eight sacks, Carolina might decide to send a little more pressure to test Philadelphia's pass protection. The Panthers can afford the risk, because the Eagles' average wide receivers can be handled in single coverage.

The Carolina defensive line has done well in occupying blockers at the line of scrimmage and allowing the linebackers to move freely to the ball, so the Eagles might have more trouble on screen plays and draws -- which have been bread-and-butter plays for their offense.

Special teams



KasayTwo weeks ago, Panthers PK John Kasay tied the NFL postseason mark for most field goals in a game (five), but last week he missed two of five kicks indoors, and his worst game of the season came against the Eagles in Week 13. Kasay has excellent mechanics and has been tough under pressure in the past, but he will have to bounce back in a hurry -- and do so under much tougher (or at least colder) conditions.
P Todd Sauerbrun has the leg strength to kick Carolina out of trouble and usually gets great hang time on his kicks, but he had two punts blocked in the team's last cold-weather game (in the regular-season finale). KOR Rod Smart reads his blocks well and rarely dances in the hole, but he lacks ideal speed. PR Steve Smith, who returned a punt 53 yards for a TD three weeks ago, changes directions without losing much speed and is a home-run threat.



AkersPhiladelphia PK David Akers long has been one of the league's most consistent kickers, but he has been erratic recently. He made the game-tying and game-winning kicks against the Packers last week, but he also shanked a 33-yarder and has missed three of his last six attempts.

P Dirk Johnson has been solid, averaging 40.6 yards and placing 34.1 percent of his punts inside the 20 during the regular season. He is inexperienced, but he did average 43.1 yards on seven punts last week in his first playoff game.

The Eagles miss RB Westbrook as much in the return game as they do on offense. In his place, they have used WR James Thrash on kickoffs and RB Reno Mahe on punts. Both have been solid but lack Westbrook's explosiveness.

Edge
QB McNabb again is carrying his team on his back, which is dangerous for Philadelphia, because so much of the team's success rides on his legs and arm. With RB Davis considered questionable, it would be easy to jump on the Eagles' bandwagon.

But Carolina's talent, resolve and commitment to its game plan continue to be underestimated. The Eagles feed off mistakes by their opponents at critical times, but the Panthers don't beat themselves, and they won't hand this game over.

Both teams showed resilience in grinding out overtime wins last week, but the Panthers' passing game is better than advertised and, unless McNabb plays the game of his life, the Eagles' offense is a little worse. The result: an upset for the Panthers and a continuation of their stunning season.

Prediction: Panthers 20, Eagles 16

 

[Senor Capper]

Carolina must limit McNabb's options

Carolina must limit McNabb's options

ESPN Insider
Thursday, January 15


The Panthers' mental toughness was never more apparent than last week against the Rams. Carolina lost RB Stephen Davis to a quad injury, committed 13 penalties for 92 yards, had a game-winning field goal negated by a penalty and allowed the Rams to successfully convert an on-side kick that was recovered by the kicker. Most teams would have folded playing on the road in a hostile environment, but the Panthers didn't. And don't expect them to be intimidated by a tough Philadelphia crowd, either.

The Packers blitzed Donovan McNabb heavily, resulting in eight sacks and frequently forcing him to hurry his decisions. It's important to remember that Philadelphia likes to send all of its skill players out on pass routes and protect McNabb only with his five offensive linemen. Obviously, when a defense sends six defenders on the pass rush, there aren't enough blockers.

The dilemma for the Panthers will be whether to blitz, which is not really their nature, or to rush four while dropping seven into coverage. If they blitz, it forces the Eagles to keep a back or tight end in to block, limiting McNabb's options, which is a huge help for the Panthers' defense.


MangumThe Panthers are doing a great job of running the backside trap play, and it all starts with TE Kris Mangum. He will start in motion like an H-back and will either block the backside DT, DE or blitzing linebacker. The Panthers' backs do a great job of allowing their blocks to develop in front of them, and the offensive linemen sell the trap well. Carolina's offensive line also does a great job of getting to the second level and getting bodies on the linebackers and defensive backs.

The Eagles like to send all five of their eligible receivers out on pass patterns. When the defensive player turns and runs with the receiver, his back is to the ball and QB Donovan McNabb, opening up favorable running lanes and seams. That's what McNabb exploited against the Packers.

When McNabb buys time with his feet, it puts tremendous pressure on a defense. Coverage breaks down with time, and the Eagles' offensive players have a lot of experience adjusting their routes and coming back to the ball when McNabb breaks contain. If McNabb gets outside the Panthers' front four, it will create big plays that the Eagles cannot manufacture if McNabb stays in the pocket.


SmithWith only an average receiving corps, the Eagles like to flex TE L.J. Smith and run him out of the slot, hoping he gets a match-up on a linebacker. At times, Smith almost fills the No. 3 receiver role.

If RB Stephen Davis can't go this weekend and DeShaun Foster gets most of the work, it spells trouble for the Panthers' run game. Davis is a north/south runner who can get yards in any weather condition and on any surface. Foster is a slasher-type runner who shows the ability to cut on a dime and make defenders miss. However, that is easier to do on Astroturf, like he played on last week, than it is on grass, which he will play on this week.

The Panthers will run right at MLB Mark Simoneau, WLB Nate Wayne and SLB Ike Reese in an effort to get a big body on them. If Foster is the primary back, this becomes even more important, because he will not break a lot of tackles on the second level. He has a better chance to create big plays in space if the Eagles' linebackers are forced to play off blocks.

The Eagles likely will play a lot of eight man fronts and "man-free" coverage against the Panthers. SS Michael Lewis will cheat up into the box and play like a fourth linebacker in run support when they run this coverage. Behind Lewis, FS Brian Dawkins will play the middle of the field, and the two corners will play man-to-man coverage on the outside. Dawkins has the toughest job, because he has to play close enough to the line of scrimmage to help in run support but deep enough to help either corner in coverage.

The Panthers will move WR Steve Smith around to get him matched up against DC Sheldon Brown if DC Troy Vincent is still out with a hip injury.


WelbournA big key for the Eagles is the ability of LOG John Welbourn to handle Panthers RDT Kris Jenkins without help. OC Hank Fraley is excellent at picking up the blitz and blocking linebackers on the second level, but those skills will be compromised if he has to help Fraley with Jenkins.
Key match-ups to watch:


PHI LOG John Welbourn vs. CAR RDT Kris Jenkins

CAR WR Steve Smith vs. PHI DC Troy Vincent

PHI QB Donovan McNabb vs. CAR SS Mike Minter

CAR OC Jeff Mitchell vs. PHI MLB Mark Simoneau

PHI ROT Jon Runyan vs. CAR LDE Julius Peppers

CAR RB Stephen Davis vs. PHI FS Brian Dawkins

PHI WR Todd Pinkston vs. CAR DC Reggie Howard


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's a breakdown as we saw it early in the week:



DavisNot to discredit the importance of RB Stephen Davis, but Carolina's running game unquestionably is a group effort. That is why there shouldn't be a lot to worry about for the Panthers if Davis (quad) isn't able to go this week.
DeShaun Foster is a more-than-capable backup, and the Panthers' blocking has been strong and steady. QB Jake Delhomme and the passing game also are beginning to create better opportunities for Carolina's runners, rather than it always being the other way around. Still, running the ball in this match-up will be especially important, because Philadelphia will have an aggressive, playmaking defense and a frenzied crowd on their side.

The Eagles also will have QB Donovan McNabb, who will be under more pressure than ever to carry the load. The Panthers' secondary is weak, but McNabb doesn't have the perimeter weapons to take advantage. Meantime, Carolina's fast, active front seven could be very disruptive of the short passing game and scrambles that make McNabb and Philadelphia's offense go.

 

[Senor Capper]

When Carolina has the ball ...
Carolina running game vs. Philadelphia run defense:



FosterThe most impressive thing about the Panthers is their unwavering commitment to what they do best: run. Even with star RB Davis out for much of the game last week, Carolina stuck to its game plan and got solid production from backups Foster and Nick Goings.
The team's blocking schemes are crisp, the offensive line traps as well as any unit around, and all of the backs show patience in letting blocks form. Whether or not Davis is healthy enough to play, the Panthers should get more mileage out of their ground game this week.

Philadelphia has an aggressive defense that Carolina can catch out of position on blitzes and stunts, popping big inside run plays. Foster can be effective in space on cut-back runs, so the Panthers will make every effort to get to the second level to attack and tie up the Eagles' smallish linebackers. That has become an easier proposition as injuries have left almost zero depth behind DTs Corey Simon and Darwin Walker and made both vulnerable to fatigue.

Carolina passing game vs. Philadelphia pass defense:
The Panthers' passing game is the most underrated unit left in the playoffs. The duo of QB Delhomme and WR Steve Smith is starting to look lethal, with Smith's ability to turn a short pass into a long gain giving an otherwise plodding offense some explosiveness.



DelhommeThe Eagles will play a lot of man-to-man coverage behind aggressive blitzes designed to confuse and hurry Delhomme. Early success in the run game for the Panthers will not only control the clock but also set up excellent play-action opportunities, on which Delhomme thrives. The more (and better) the Panthers run, the more success they will have in luring FS Brian Dawkins into the box, which puts Philadelphia in a bind in pass-defense situations.

As good as the Eagles have been over the years in man-to-man coverage, this secondary can be attacked on the perimeter, as 30-something CBs Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent (who is nursing a hip injury) no longer strike fear into opposing offenses.

Delhomme will pick his spots, taking his shots when Smith or WR Muhsin Muhammad get the right single-coverage match-up. The pressure is on the Panthers to protect Delhomme, so Carolina's running backs might have to contribute in blitz pick-up.

When Philadelphia has the ball ...
Philadelphia running game vs. Carolina run defense: With game-breaking RB Brian Westbrook out for the year, Philadelphia's best running back now is ... its quarterback. Of the Eagles' 164 rushing yards last week, 107 came on scrambles by QB McNabb. And just as important, McNabb had 11 carries, indicating that his running was a big part of the game plan all along.



MinterKeeping that in mind, the Panthers likely will spy McNabb, perhaps with SS Mike Minter, their most instinctive defensive back and best open-field tackler. The threat won't be merely up the middle, where McNabb usually scrambles, but also on the perimeter, where he is rolling out more often. And the onus will be on the entire Panthers defense to read and react to run or pass, regardless of McNabb's location on the field.

The Eagles won't be able to run the ball inside on DTs Kris Jenkins and Brentson Buckner and LB Dan Morgan, who will force RBs Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter wide. That means DEs Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker will have to avoid getting hooked on the edges. The Eagles will pull their offensive line on sweeps and off-tackle plays, but the real key to their run game may be their blockers' ability to move and make contact on the second level when McNabb drops back to pass and then scrambles.

Philadelphia passing game vs. Carolina pass defense:



McNabbThough Philadelphia threw for only 199 yards against Green Bay, McNabb was efficient and controlled, using eight different receivers and hitting a back or tight end on 11 of 21 completions. The Eagles don't stretch defenses, but their low-risk passing game minimizes turnovers and is a decent substitute for a consistent power run game.
The Panthers -- whose philosophy is to drop seven and rush four, controlling the line of scrimmage with their defensive line -- will not blitz as much as the Packers did. But after watching Green Bay drop McNabb for eight sacks, Carolina might decide to send a little more pressure to test Philadelphia's pass protection. The Panthers can afford the risk, because the Eagles' average wide receivers can be handled in single coverage.

The Carolina defensive line has done well in occupying blockers at the line of scrimmage and allowing the linebackers to move freely to the ball, so the Eagles might have more trouble on screen plays and draws -- which have been bread-and-butter plays for their offense.

Special teams



KasayTwo weeks ago, Panthers PK John Kasay tied the NFL postseason mark for most field goals in a game (five), but last week he missed two of five kicks indoors, and his worst game of the season came against the Eagles in Week 13. Kasay has excellent mechanics and has been tough under pressure in the past, but he will have to bounce back in a hurry -- and do so under much tougher (or at least colder) conditions.
P Todd Sauerbrun has the leg strength to kick Carolina out of trouble and usually gets great hang time on his kicks, but he had two punts blocked in the team's last cold-weather game (in the regular-season finale). KOR Rod Smart reads his blocks well and rarely dances in the hole, but he lacks ideal speed. PR Steve Smith, who returned a punt 53 yards for a TD three weeks ago, changes directions without losing much speed and is a home-run threat.



AkersPhiladelphia PK David Akers long has been one of the league's most consistent kickers, but he has been erratic recently. He made the game-tying and game-winning kicks against the Packers last week, but he also shanked a 33-yarder and has missed three of his last six attempts.

P Dirk Johnson has been solid, averaging 40.6 yards and placing 34.1 percent of his punts inside the 20 during the regular season. He is inexperienced, but he did average 43.1 yards on seven punts last week in his first playoff game.

The Eagles miss RB Westbrook as much in the return game as they do on offense. In his place, they have used WR James Thrash on kickoffs and RB Reno Mahe on punts. Both have been solid but lack Westbrook's explosiveness.

Edge
QB McNabb again is carrying his team on his back, which is dangerous for Philadelphia, because so much of the team's success rides on his legs and arm. With RB Davis considered questionable, it would be easy to jump on the Eagles' bandwagon.

But Carolina's talent, resolve and commitment to its game plan continue to be underestimated. The Eagles feed off mistakes by their opponents at critical times, but the Panthers don't beat themselves, and they won't hand this game over.

Both teams showed resilience in grinding out overtime wins last week, but the Panthers' passing game is better than advertised and, unless McNabb plays the game of his life, the Eagles' offense is a little worse. The result: an upset for the Panthers and a continuation of their stunning season.

Prediction: Panthers 20, Eagles 16

 

[Senor Capper]

National Football League Weather

National Football League Weather

Sunday, January 18

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, 3 p.m.

Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of snow. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 25.

--------------------------------------

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, 6:45 p.m.

Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 30.

As of January 15, 2004, at 11:18 AM ET

 

[PAWAQATSI]

A good read SC........Good luck to you this week mate.

 

[badjab]

thanks for posting the ESPN insider info! good stuff :thumb:

 

[lowell]

thanks for your picks.what do you think home field is worth this late in the season.which team has more advantage at home.thanks

 

[Senor Capper]

Good Read

Good Read

Good Read

I'm one of the "what's past is prologue" believers. With that in mind, let's look at Sunday's conference championship games -- rematches of regular-season tilts between Indianapolis-New England and Carolina-Philadelphia -- with an eye on those Week 13 results.

AFC Championship: Colts (14-4) at Patriots (15-2)

That was then: New England 38, Indianapolis 34



The Patriots led 10-0 after the first quarter and 24-10 at halftime before holding off a furious second-half barrage in which the Colts clawed to within four points. We pick up the action with time winding down in the fourth quarter:
? 1:32 -- First-and-10 at the New England 18: Peyton Manning passes to Marvin Harrison for 9 yards.
? 0:59 -- Second-and-1 at the New England 9: Edgerrin James up the middle for 7 yards.
? 0:40 -- First-and-goal at the New England 2: James off right tackle for 1 yard.
? 0:24 -- Second-and-goal at the New England 1: James up the middle for no gain.
? 0:18 -- Third-and-goal at the New England 1: Manning pass incomplete to Aaron Moorehead.
? 0:14 -- Fourth-and-goal at the New England 1: James up the middle for minus-1 yard.

Indy offensive coordinator Tom Moore took a lot of heat for his red-zone playcalling on that series. Four cracks from the 2-yard line with the offense coming up empty tends to draw the ire of fans and armchair quarterbacks. Call it second-guessing, but running the ball is not the Colts' strong suit. Even with James in tow, Indy's O-line is not the game's most aggressive run-blocking unit. Moore went away from the offense's No. 1 weapon -- the pass -- and even when Manning did put the ball up, it was to Moorehead. Is a rookie receiver the best option in that situation? Maybe if it's Anquan Boldin, but Moorehead had almost as many DNPs (6) as catches (7) entering that game.

This is now: Colts 24, Patriots 21


Sunday, 3 p.m. (CBS)
Preview | Matchup

I can see it now, Bob from Beantown will begin his e-mail with "How can you pick the Patriots to lose -- at home?!" Then follow that up with the likes of New England has won 13 consecutive games. The Pats are only the third team in history to win 12 in row to end the regular season, and the '34 Bears reached the NFL Championship and the '72 Dolphins won Super Bowl VII. New England had a franchise-record 14 regular-season wins and were 8-0 at Gillette. The Patriots allowed only 68 points at home (fewest by a team in a 16-game schedule) and are 18-3 in their past 21 at home, including the playoffs.

All true, Bob, and don't forget that Tom Brady is 26-4 after Nov. 1, including the playoffs, has never lost playoff game (4-0), has not thrown a pick at home in 282 attempts this season (the most attempts without an INT for a season at home since 1970) and he made his first start against the Colts -- and won -- on Sept. 30, 2001.

But here's why the Colts will win: Manning will throw enough to keep New England's linebackers off balance, thus opening running lanes for James to gash the Patriots' front four (or five or six, depending on what Bill Belichick concocts). The key for Indy's offense will not be Manning, Harrison or James; it's center Jeff Saturday, who will have to survey the Pats' defensive look while anticipating any late, pre-snap movement. After that, hello, Marcus Pollard, whose speed against a 'backer will yield big yardage. Defensively, Dwight Freeney must pressure Brady into a bad decision, which is easier said than done. With Patriots guard Damien Woody doubtful with a knee injury, Russ Hochstein become the focus of the Colts' defensive push.

NFC Championship: Panthers (13-5) at Eagles (13-4)

That was then: Philadelphia 25, Carolina 16

In a matchup of two of the game's best kickers, Philly's David Akers kicked four field goals while Carolina's John Kasay missed three field-goal attempts and an extra point. The win was the Eagles' seventh in their nine-game winning streak and it was the Panthers' second loss in their late-season three-game skid.

Kasay's misses came on fourth-and-1 from the Philadelphia 14, fourth-and-8 from the Philadelphia 20 and fourth-and-12 from the Philadelphia 31. Can the Eagles withstand another red-zone barrage by giving up zero points?

Better yet, what did Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning learn from Carolina's final fourth-quarter series, when it trailed 22-16?
? 6:07 -- First-and-10 from the Carolina 22: Jake Delhomme pass incomplete to Muhsin Muhammad.
? 6:01 -- Second-and-10 from the Carolina 22: Delhomme pass incomplete to Steve Smith.
? 5:55 -- Third-and-10 from the Carolina 22: Delhomme pass incomplete to Smith.
? 5:49 -- Fourth-and-10 from the Carolina 22: Todd Sauerbrun punts 51 yards to the Philadelphia 27.

Despite gaining 115 yards in that game, Stephen Davis did not touch the ball when Carolina had the chance to drive the field, chew the clock and potentially score the game-winning points. If Henning learned anything from last Sunday's Packers-Eagles NFC Divisional game, it should be run the football. (And don't give me that crap about the Eagles stuffing Ahman Green at the goal line; name me one Philly fan who wanted to see Najeh Davenport in the backfield with 2:30 to play in the fourth quarter and the Packers facing fourth-and-two feet with a 17-14 lead?)

This is now: Panthers 21, Eagles 17


Sunday, 6:30 p.m. (FOX)
Preview | Matchup

No surprise here, but DeShaun Foster is the man with the bull's-eye on his jersey, not that Philly could tackle him or anything. ... If Davis is limited or cannot play (he's nursing a quadricep), Foster will step into the backfield. And here's the glass-half-full analysis: Foster rushed for a season-high 95 yards last week at St. Louis, so maybe he's coming into his own. But here's the glass-half-empty analysis: Foster has more fumbles (3) than rushing touchdowns (0) in 138 carries this year, including the postseason.

Of course, Penelope from Philly (some of the most vile e-mails after last week's pick of Green Bay over Philadelphia came from women) is going to be quick to point out that her beloved Iggles have won at least 12 games, including the playoffs, for four consecutive seasons and are playing in their third consecutive NFC Championship Game. Not to mention that Donovan McNabb has 11 playoff TD passes (most in franchise history) and is second all-time with a 2.1 INT percentage (six picks in 287 attempts), which trails only Bart Starr (1.4).


Again, all true, but here's what will be the Eagles' undoing: Carolina's special teams will not have three penalties in punt-return coverage, like Green Bay had last week. The Packers did not score on any series after they were flagged for a special teams' penalty, and the last one -- Tony Fisher's hold -- played into the Eagles' hands. Instead of first-and-10 at the Packers' 42, Green Bay started at its own 32 and those 10 yards allowed Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to turn the dogs loose on Brett Favre, who threw the game-turning interception.

Without Brian Westbrook to even the return-game playing field for Philly, the Panthers' Smith becomes the X-factor. Toss in Carolina Pro Bowl punter Todd Sauerbrun -- who led the NFC with a 44.6-yard average, the first punter since 1970 to to lead the conference three years in a row -- and this will be a field-position battle that plays into John Fox's hands. Especially if Julius Peppers can help contain McNabb and prevent a game-turn run.


Overall: 167-97.
B. Duane Cross SI

 

[Senor Capper]

Lem Banker Plays.........

Lem Banker Plays.........

NFL: AFC Championship Game Pick

Indianapolis over New England :shocked:


NFL: NFC Championship Game Pick

Carolina over Philadelphia :shocked:


Australian Open Tennis

Andre Agassi 5-1

Best to all

SC

 

[Wolftaz]

Great info Senor and and agree with you on both your picks. I would love to see a Carolina-Indy Superbowl!!

 

[the_fix_is_on]

Si Senor!

I already played a ML parlay, a parlay, and 2 straight wagers on the Colts + 3', and Panthers +5. I see the lines have drifted lower since I made these plays. But I don't think the points will be needed.

Good luck!

If anyone has the seen the movie Marathon Man, this signature line is for you.