took k.c. last week & don't remember seeing such a soft defense during this time of year. they were really very passive & am not surprised that the d.c. was canned. today i will go against indy once again with:
10*n.e.-3--in order to keep indy's offense off the field, n.e. must control the ball. many cappers on the various forums have stated that n.e. doesn't have the running game to do this. i disagree with this assessment & think that n.e. has enough on offense to keep payton & co off the field.
eventhough their running attack has ranked at the bottom of the league, n.e.'s rushers are good enough to take advantage of indy's light defensive front. during the season n.e.'s two primary running backs (smith & faulk) averaged 3.6 ypr. last week against the #1 rushing defense(tenn.), n.e.'s running back's averaged a very good 4.0 ypr. in their 2 playoff games this year, indy's running defense have given up a gawdy 6.1 ypr.
in the passing game, indy likes to play a soft cover 2 defense. this means that they play not to allow the deep pass. because n.e likes to pass from various spread offenses, brady should be able to throw inside the seems of indy's zone & move the chains.
on defense, the key will be not letting payton feel comfortabe in the pocket. based on his history, bellichek will devise a defensive game plan to throw payton off his game. they will be coming from different angles to rush him & i think that they will succeed. in ty law, n.e. has an excellent cover corner to neutralizae indy's top receiver( harrison) & their rush defense, at home allows a very good 3.3 ypr.
including last week's game vs. tenn., n.e. has allowed a total of 75 points in their 9 home games, & have allowd an impressive 5.1 points per game in their last 7 home games. in their last 7 games, indy has allowed at least 27 points 4 times.
i don't see indy scoring more than 20 points, & i think that n.e. should score about 24-31 points.
a few trends supporting this play:
nfl road teams who win & cover a playoff game & allow >24 points are 0-14 su & 1-12-1 ats in their next playoff game, including 0-8 su/ats, if they won as a dog.
playoff teams who scored 36 or more points, in semi-final conference games are 0-7 su/ats if they are on the road in the next game. those teams have averaged 19 points in those games.
good luck & enjoy your day.
10*n.e.-3--in order to keep indy's offense off the field, n.e. must control the ball. many cappers on the various forums have stated that n.e. doesn't have the running game to do this. i disagree with this assessment & think that n.e. has enough on offense to keep payton & co off the field.
eventhough their running attack has ranked at the bottom of the league, n.e.'s rushers are good enough to take advantage of indy's light defensive front. during the season n.e.'s two primary running backs (smith & faulk) averaged 3.6 ypr. last week against the #1 rushing defense(tenn.), n.e.'s running back's averaged a very good 4.0 ypr. in their 2 playoff games this year, indy's running defense have given up a gawdy 6.1 ypr.
in the passing game, indy likes to play a soft cover 2 defense. this means that they play not to allow the deep pass. because n.e likes to pass from various spread offenses, brady should be able to throw inside the seems of indy's zone & move the chains.
on defense, the key will be not letting payton feel comfortabe in the pocket. based on his history, bellichek will devise a defensive game plan to throw payton off his game. they will be coming from different angles to rush him & i think that they will succeed. in ty law, n.e. has an excellent cover corner to neutralizae indy's top receiver( harrison) & their rush defense, at home allows a very good 3.3 ypr.
including last week's game vs. tenn., n.e. has allowed a total of 75 points in their 9 home games, & have allowd an impressive 5.1 points per game in their last 7 home games. in their last 7 games, indy has allowed at least 27 points 4 times.
i don't see indy scoring more than 20 points, & i think that n.e. should score about 24-31 points.
a few trends supporting this play:
nfl road teams who win & cover a playoff game & allow >24 points are 0-14 su & 1-12-1 ats in their next playoff game, including 0-8 su/ats, if they won as a dog.
playoff teams who scored 36 or more points, in semi-final conference games are 0-7 su/ats if they are on the road in the next game. those teams have averaged 19 points in those games.
good luck & enjoy your day.
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