Pardon the Interruption

[lostinamerica]

Last Week: 2-1 (+0.77*)
Two right sides with Carolina and Indianapolis. Just a lean to Tennessee. Missed by one point with Green Bay. It's fairly typical for me to have little to show for a solid week.

This week:
(1) Carolina(+7')
(2) New England(-6)
(3) Green Bay(+5)
(4) Indianapolis vs. Kansas City (On the bubble)


Carolina(+7') over St. Louis (1.25*)

The first key to beating St. Louis at home has always been defense. Check. A team that is strong and solid at the point of attack. Check. How about a team that doesn't beat themselves? Check. A team with a better coach than Mike Martz. Check.

I'm not suggesting a young Panther team (and former division rival) will have an easy time of it against an overrated Rams team, but I am suggesting I'm getting a bucketload of points with the better team in a bad matchup for the Rams. (For a surprising stat, I believe Carolina ranks 9th in the league (and ahead of Indianapolis) in pass plays of 20+ yards.)

I think the bye rest and a widening disparity toward a handful of upper echelon teams accounts for the strong advantage for home teams in this round, much more so than the energy and noise of the home field (just compare the SU and ATS results in the AFC and NFC Championship games since the 49ers/Cowboys heydays ended in 1995). I have my doubts about whether Coach Martz has been pushing all the right buttons during the two weeks since gagging the Detroit game, while I like the fact that a well-constructed Carolina team under John Fox (a former coordinator of some successful Giant's defenses) has been tweaking for about a month, and they've known for two weeks that they would be headed to St.Louis if they could handle the Cowboys.

I fully expect that Carolina will have to weather an early storm with poise and plays, so much so that I think St. Louis is headed for a world of hurt if they don't jump on top by double digits within the first twenty minutes. But if Bulger plays with poise and polish through thick and thin, there is a decent chance his whole team may follow suit, and that the Carolina secondary will be asked to do too much.

GL

 

[caught up]

i know that st louis is gonna get their points. i dont doubt that holt will find the EZ once, and agree it would benefit the rams immensly if they were to jump out early--as it would put pressure on carolina to play catch up and perhaps away from their strongpoint of running with davis--AS WELL as with deshaun foster--who i believe will be the difference maker for the CAR off. having heard all this talk about bulger gettin protection, and the st louis O line vs this young, hungry talented car D line, its not like bulger wont be able to get passes away. he'll probably force a few throws--and if in fact that happens, will CAR take advantage. i think everybody knows, the usual turnover winner in important games, and games period usually stands a batter chance at being victorious.
i think the matchup to worry about is the CAR off vs the STL def. i think the STL def is the forgotten factor here--and should not be overlooked, 'specially in a dome that in and of itslef will play problems with any visiting OFF (see: STL home field W-L record). the dome factor alone will probably ruin the impressive run of no penalties for the panthers. i'm curious to see how delhomme answers against a decent blitzing aggressive D that lovie will no doubt bring.
that said, i'm still leaning to take CAR with the extra half pooint at 7.5. i knowboth martz and bulger wont mind the picks--as long as they get their points. for me, its a wait and see if car will get theirs.
i'm not amazingly aware of what CAR brings for special teams--does anyone know/think there to be any edge either side. IE. car has great coverage on punts etc for instance?

 

[lostinamerica]

caught up:
- (1) - A review of the stats shows that Carolina led the league in blocking punts(3) and blocking field goals(3), plus blocking at least one big extra point against Tampa, and has a slight and almost across the board edge over St. Louis in returning and covering kicks and punts, which is probably a reflection of coaching emphasis and attitude. John Kasay(Car) and Jeff Wilkins (StL) are both good kickers.
- (2) - I agree that the St. Louis defense will bring it on the carpet and with the snap count advantage in a noisy dome, which is when that poise and playmaking in weathering an early storm is going to be crucial for a young Carolina team.
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New England(-6) over Tennessee (1*)

The Tennessee angle I keep seeing time and again is that New England has been streaking for too long, and either Tennessee brings the right stuff to take it to New England, or New England isn't good enough to take it all the way and this is as good a spot as any for the show to end. On the whole, I happen to think this is a pretty sharp line for drawing bets to Tennessee, while I look for the final score to fall on the side of the New England backers.

Coming off a bitter rivalry game for a second straight road game in a hard New England freeze is hardly just what the doctor ordered for Tennessee to face the most impenetrable team in the league. While it's just a perception on my part, I think Tennessee struggles too often in the red zone to make the most of whatever chances they will have in this game against a rock-ribbed red zone defense. Spreading the field and using all manner of passes and plays against Tennessee has been proven time and again to be the best way to attack them and run on them. Tennessee has great personnel, an inspirational warrior and playmaker in McNair leading the way, and a noticeable and infectious never say die attitude, but they usually have as many breakdowns in a quarter as this New England team has been having in a game. While I did not like hearing that coming off a bye week, Belichick has been schlepping his team outdoors to practice at night for four straight days, it's also the case that the coach has been pushing all the right buttons with these guys, and I'm not joining the wiseguys that think this is a good spot for derailing the Patriots express.

GL

 

[caught up]

jus for the record--i believe the KC/INDY is my strongest lean. i dont believe indy can bring it again--as i think the colt D will be neutralized away from friendly--and now unfriendly confines, specially off their turf. their D was flyin, no doubt last week vs den, but without the turf--i dont think they contain KC at all. INDY doesnt win in my opinion--not a lean, a belief. though i've been mullin over all angles, mostly of the pats/titans game all week, i have a firm belief that the KC off will venture better than the INDY off and theres some kinda decent trends in senor cap's and i believe sixth senses posts that back indy comin back to earth after the outstanding display vs DEN. thanx for the opinion on TENN--and GL2U!!!

 

[lostinamerica]

Indianapolis(+3)(+100) over Kansas City (1.25*)
Before halftime of the Denver game, the question I had was whether Indianapolis had prepared with a fervor directed at slaying the postseason monkey on their back and the clunker from two weeks earlier, or whether the team was animated in good part by a bigger perspective . . . I think Indianapolis is the better team and is prepared to show it.

Green Bay(+5) over Philadelphia (1.25*)
I'll bite my tongue.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2003 Season to Date:

NFL Post Season: 5-2 (+3.42*)
NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
NCAA Bowls: 7-7 (-0.42*)

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CAROLINA vs. PHILADELPHIA

No way do I think John Fox has Carolina in over their heads in this one.

Philadelphia rides on the big game abilities of Donovan McNabb, and the prowess of Jim Johnson's defense, built on a philosophy of (a) get to the quarterback, and trust the guys are going to cover the receivers and control (not stop) the run (former Eagle Al Harris: "He would never make up these different kind of coverages, he'd concentrate on getting to the quarterback and trust the guys are going to cover the receivers. I can pretty much hear him in the meeting right now: 'We're going to do this, we're going to do this and it's going to get there. They may block this, but if they block it he's going to go here. And most of the time he's right.") ("Teams can say they run on us all they want," said defensive tackle Sam Rayburn. "But when they need a foot and can't get it, that says something, doesn't it?"); and (b) shooting for 17 points allowed each game (the Eagles under Johnson are 42-6 SU when that happens).

McNabb is short on weapons to a significant extent. A Philadelphia Daily News article this week noted, "In the 12 defensive categories the league keeps, the Eagles finished behind the Panthers in 11. Of course, the one they led was the one Johnson harps upon - points allowed"; that's a few mirrors too many for my tastes in a championship game for a team that relies on it's defense . . . As for the Carolina house of mirrors, I believe they rank 9th in the league (and ahead of Indianapolis) in pass plays of 20+ yards, and for weeks and weeks they have been tweaking their January game pieces pretty convincingly . . . (I don't think it's an idle exercise to bring up what was noted at the start of the season in The Gold Sheet Annual for 2003: "Coach John Fox snapped the teams 15-game losing streak in the first game of '02 . . . and boosted the listless Carolina defense from 31st to second in the NFL in just one year! . . .With the defense back on track, Fox focused on the offense . . . from free agency, RB Stephen Davis, WR Kevin Dyson, possession guy Ricky Proehl, and QB Jake Delhomme . . .from the draft, T/G Jordan Gross (Utah; highly regarded for his mobility and intelligence), and C/G Bruce Nelson (a leader of Iowa's fine OL) . . . infusion of talent to help productive players such as WR M. Muhammad, WR/KR Steve Smith, and RB DeShaun Foster) . . .on defense, Peppers, Rucker, Jenkins and Morgan showing they could be stars for years to come".) That's a well-constructed "house of mirrors" keying the Carolina insurgency . . . Jake Delhomme is also known on the team as Bobby Boucher (from "The Waterboy") ( http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=10818934&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18170&rfi=6), while Donovan McNabb lands on the cover of Sports Illustrated. . . . Carolina takes pride in not beating themselves, with two atypical exceptions being the first Dallas game and the first Philadelphia game. Both teams are comfortable playing a close game into the 4th quarter and taking their chances.

I sense that Carolina is a loose, excited and confident team that will be aggressive with their schemes and resilient in their play. Philadelphia had better match them in all that. And I don't think the guys on a flawed Philadelphia team are going to line up and get the better of the individual matchups staring across the line from them on a well-constructed Carolina team. I even have to give the edge to Carolina with their special teams. Meanwhile, the burden of previous disappointments has likely been a bit of a strain even while it has keyed a spirited Philadelphia season to this point, and it's not dificult to sense all that as a burden of unnecessary pressure in this "next hurdle" game.

More or less, that's my case for taking the Carolina Panthers in this one.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND

Briefly . . . Not surprisingly, with so much attention on the Peyton Manning led offense against the Bill Bilichick designed defense, the potential for advantages and mismatches in other areas that could decide the outcome seem to get overlooked. Even though I'm inclined to think the Colts defense is slightly underrated, it's not much of a defense to be taking on the road in a championship game against the best team Indy will face all season.

This New England team doesn't have a Lombardi Trophy yet, but it's hard to argue that it isn't cut from better cloth than the team of two years ago ( http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/patriots.bg?articleid=375 ). 38-34, 30-26, 12-0, 9-3; New England is comfortable playing any style of game against any style of opponent; if they have to win with special teams, I won't put it past them. This is a team that is 8-0 facing teams with at least 10 wins on the season, not a Kansas City team that showed its Christmas spirit by giving up 45 points to Denver and Minnesota in December. There are not a lot of stiffs on the other side playing Bilichick's sound schemes wrapped in clever packaging. The Colts are going to get their share (I think), but those yards and conversions and points are going to be contested and hard fought. Did I mention that New England has pretty much owned this series against Indy under Manning, but now a cold, slick ball (and some cold hands and extremities all around), and comments by Marcus Pollard that if the Colts keep playing like they have been, "they might as well just hand us the rings," are just the right formula for a giving the Patriots their comeuppance?

On Sporting News radio this week, I heard a comment (second-hand) attributed to Bill Walsh that he has never seen a quarterback play as well as Peyton Manning is playing right now, but that Tom Brady would be his choice if he had to choose one quarterback to win one game right now. That's about the size of it. The New England Patriots have earned my money.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

This is my second year of capping totals with some regularity, and I've sucked. But as is the case with any of my best percentage sports wagers, I like plays when I can see this angle and that angle, and then I find stuff along the way that fits nicely and supports what I was seeing and thinking.

New England being held to 17 like last week, and holding Indianapolis to 14 like Tennessee last week, ain't what I'm seeing in this one . . . I think Brady and the New England offense will have an attitude that produces some prideful scores in this game . . . Plenty of balls in the air even if New England tries to work some clock, and no lead is really safe . . . Weather adds some short fields off the kicking games . . . I really like this play if New England gets behind, even by just one early score . . . I've held off because of the weather, and now I'll lean to just playing the total small, and also in a parlay.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Here's what I've done:

(1) Carolina(+4')(-105) over Philadelphia (1.25*)
(2) New England(-3)(-120) over Indianapolis (1.25*)
(3) Indianapolis/New England(Ov43) (0.80*)
(4) Hedge my futures bet on Philadelphia(+900) to Win Super Bowl:
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=122184
(5) "What the Hey" Parlay:
- Carolina(+170ML) w/ New England(-3)(-120) w/ Ind/NEng(Ov43) for 0.30* @ 8.45/1

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

NFL Post Season: 7-3 (+4.74*)

I suck at totals - that hasn't changed.

Philadelphia was a flawed team. Indianapolis had their chances, but wasn't good enough. Carolina is a well-constructed team. New England is a Super Bowl team. I'll keep my antennae up, but I don't think I'll feel the need to buy back my wager that New England(-6')(1.5*) will seize the day.

GL