Just to get this out of the way...let me say that a 7 point line in this game is obsurd. I am by no means saying that New England cannot cover this line.....but giving 7 points in a NEUTRAL field is obsurd. No one can convince me that this game would be Pats -10 at Foxboro or Pats -4 in Carolina. It would not happen......this line is inflated for one reason and one reason only.....this is the biggest bet game of the year, and the public loves a favorite. If you make this line 3.5-5 (what it should be) the public takes the Pats at an enormous rate.
Sorry but on one can convince me that this line is justifyable on the football field.......The Pats do not have the offensive firepower to blow teams off the field. The only blowout they have had on the streak was 31-0 against the Bills (who gave up) There is a reason for this......the Pats do not run the ball effectively when they need to. Meaning the RED ZONE....even against the lowly Colts offensive line....they had to settle for 5 field goals in the RED ZONE.
Notice good RED ZONE teams, RUN THE BALL effectively. (The Chiefs) Now....before I piss off too many Pats fans....the Panthers are not good at RED ZONE offense either. Both are quite comparable. And both teams are VERY effective at hold their competition to field goals in the RED ZONE. This game will have a lot of field goals kicked....I GUARANTEE IT. Field goals do not amount to covering 7 point spreads on neutral fields.
An even bigger factor when you have two solid defensive squads going at it is field position.....BIG ADVANTAGE Panthers. New England is near the bottom in punting avergae in the NFL, and the Panthers are near the top. The Pats will have to make up this lost ground in total yardage.
I guess what I am saying is that the Panthers do not have a glaring weakness to expose.
Can they run the ball? They are about average....but they stick with it.
Can they pass it? The emergence of Steve Smith and Delhomme and the postseason play of Muhammed looks pretty good.
Can they stop the run? The Pats dont have a huge attack and the Panthers are a little better than league average, so YES.
Can they stop the pass? The Pats do not look to expose cornerbacks downfield, so unless Brady and the Pats become a big play offense overnight, the big play will not kill the Panthers.
Field Goal kicking? Kasay has been pretty solid for the majority of the year.
Special Teams and Punting? Panthers are among the league leaders in punting and kickoff returns are not horrible.
What will the Pats scheme against? The Pats will play solid defense and will play Pats football......but Pats football is not covering 7 points in a neutral site. It is attempting to sustain long drives with short passing and a marginal run game. They will be able to have a few nice drives.....but will they be able to continually punch in touchdowns? I doubt it.
Not that the Panthers will.....but again.....the Panthers dont have to win this game for me to win money. They just have to lose by 6 or less.
I will take my chances right now with the Panthers and the under.
Any thoughts?
Sorry but on one can convince me that this line is justifyable on the football field.......The Pats do not have the offensive firepower to blow teams off the field. The only blowout they have had on the streak was 31-0 against the Bills (who gave up) There is a reason for this......the Pats do not run the ball effectively when they need to. Meaning the RED ZONE....even against the lowly Colts offensive line....they had to settle for 5 field goals in the RED ZONE.
Notice good RED ZONE teams, RUN THE BALL effectively. (The Chiefs) Now....before I piss off too many Pats fans....the Panthers are not good at RED ZONE offense either. Both are quite comparable. And both teams are VERY effective at hold their competition to field goals in the RED ZONE. This game will have a lot of field goals kicked....I GUARANTEE IT. Field goals do not amount to covering 7 point spreads on neutral fields.
An even bigger factor when you have two solid defensive squads going at it is field position.....BIG ADVANTAGE Panthers. New England is near the bottom in punting avergae in the NFL, and the Panthers are near the top. The Pats will have to make up this lost ground in total yardage.
I guess what I am saying is that the Panthers do not have a glaring weakness to expose.
Can they run the ball? They are about average....but they stick with it.
Can they pass it? The emergence of Steve Smith and Delhomme and the postseason play of Muhammed looks pretty good.
Can they stop the run? The Pats dont have a huge attack and the Panthers are a little better than league average, so YES.
Can they stop the pass? The Pats do not look to expose cornerbacks downfield, so unless Brady and the Pats become a big play offense overnight, the big play will not kill the Panthers.
Field Goal kicking? Kasay has been pretty solid for the majority of the year.
Special Teams and Punting? Panthers are among the league leaders in punting and kickoff returns are not horrible.
What will the Pats scheme against? The Pats will play solid defense and will play Pats football......but Pats football is not covering 7 points in a neutral site. It is attempting to sustain long drives with short passing and a marginal run game. They will be able to have a few nice drives.....but will they be able to continually punch in touchdowns? I doubt it.
Not that the Panthers will.....but again.....the Panthers dont have to win this game for me to win money. They just have to lose by 6 or less.
I will take my chances right now with the Panthers and the under.
Any thoughts?
