Tar Heels Gameday (big) 1/22 (FSU)

[saint]

I'm at school so I don't have much time to post. I love the heels tonight, I think this line is very weak. I have a lot of reasons, I will elaborate later. I'm not telling anyone what to play, but for me this will be one of, if not the biggest play i've made. I got it early and bought it down. To make is short and quick, there is no way in my mind the heels will lose and run their record to 1-3 in the ACC. Mark this down...the UCONN game will be a big turning point for this team. THey finally showed the ability to win a close game down the stretch, and that means a lot for this team's confidence. Sean May has been in a tough stretch, so look for him to break out tonight. FSU is good at home, but they haven't been playing the best bball lately. The heels won by 21 last year if I remember correctly at FSU. I really expect them to have a complete game tonight with a convincing win.

Play

Heels -3 -112 8u


Good luck fellas

 

[Tupac]

I like your play. They need to win this game so they can improve that conference record.

 

[Felonious Monk]

GL

 

[ajoytoy]

Dave,

what your take on the total? Was leaning under but will wait till later if i play anything...

gl to your team tonight

toy

 

[saint]

Anil-

I also would lean to the under. FSU plays tight at home and I think they will try to slow things down tonight. Our defense needs to tighten up, it's our biggest weakness. We started out playing well on d but have played like crap recently. I'll wait, line may move up before gametime.

 

[Spiro]

Is FSU 9-2 at home?

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Spiro - FSU is 9-1 at home.

I initially liked UNC a lot when I first saw this line, but looking closer I think this is seriously a "trap" line. Once you get inside the numbers, this is actually a very, very generous line to give to FSU.

Take a look at these stats:
http://www.covers.com/data/ncb_aspx/game/g6_main_3.aspx

Of particular interest is the home/away stats for both teams, and how they've performed over the last 5 games.

Also, currently UNC is the consensus pick by about a 75%-25% margin. That doesn't automatically make it a bad play but you know the old saying "if it looks too good to be true it probably is." IMO, UNC is certainly more than 4 points better than FSU, but this one is probably going to be a dogfight and, not that you asked for my opinion, but I don't think this play warrants one of the biggest plays of the year.

And just FYI, it was in '02 that the Heels won by 21 at FSU. Last year they only played once, in Chapel Hill, and UNC won by 1.

GL2U!

 

[Cie]

And just FYI, it was in '02 that the Heels won by 21 at FSU. Last year they only played once, in Chapel Hill, and UNC won by 1.

12/22/2002 NORTH CAROLINA-FLORIDA STATE 69-48 -1 140

According to my info, they played once last year, but they played twice last season including a 21 point victory by UNC in Tallahasee on December 22.

GL:weed:

 

[lowell]

if nc state can beat fsu by 5 at fsu i like my chances with unc.only hiccup might be if game stays in low 60's.goota think unc gets close to 70 points.i am putting 500 on the heels.would love to get minus 3 but i will have to lay more.pass on the total

 

[johnnyonthespot]

CIE you are absolutely right. Little bit of a mental block on my part - just saw '02 and thought it was 2 years ago. My bad.

 

[txag]

if nc state can beat fsu by 5 at fsu i like my chances with unc

thats pretty terrible reasoning lowell. By that same token i can say i feel pretty comfortable taking fsu at home if UNC can only beat Cleveland St. by 5. a score from one game doesnt mean jack. noles are a darn good home team and you will be reminded of that tonight.

 

[saint]

Look, here's what it comes down to. How are you guys capping this game? You look at covers maybe, some other stat sites, maybe you caught 1 or 2 UNC or FSU games. That doesn't matter to me. I don't cap these games with covers. I don't cap them with numbers, road/home, etc much. That's why I don't post any other picks on MJs in college basketball other than tar heel plays. To me, I play the games I know more about that just stats. And that's the Tar Heels. I've lived in Chapel Hill and been here in school for the last 7 years (undergrad and prof. degree). I've attended every game, I've got friends who are with the team on a daily basis, this team is like my pulse. So to me, you can throw those road stats out the window. This team is finding itself. It did a lot of losing the last 2 years, and for the first time these guys are learning how to win. That is huge for this team. I just think they are ready to make a run. And I think it starts tonight at FSU. Does that mean you should play it? No, I definitely agree, on paper FSU looks like the play. But to me, UNC is. Take it FWIW. And if it wins, great. And if not, I'll still be back tomorrow.

 

[daftplayer]

Great post and replies Saint. I favor UNC so much it scares me. Like some say, it does seem "too obvious." Your insight has given me the nads to go with original conviction. Thanks.

 

[wufdude]

I'm with you here Saint. I think the Heels hammer FSU.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Well said Saint. You cannot cap by numbers alone and absolutely the way to be succesful is to bet what you know. I would just say to make sure you're betting with your head and not with your heart.

GL Tonight!

 

[lowell]

txag-other than md win at home i see nothing about fsu schedule that makes me think they can handle unc.i expect first half to be close but unc should exert themselves and pull away or at least cover.it will take fsu playing great and unc playing poorly for fsu to cover.i am a huge duke fan but i feel very confident that unc will challenge them for 1st place by end of year.duke has 3 road wins.unc gets one tonight.my local does not take ml but i would put up 1750 to win 1000 if he did.good luck

 

[lowell]

local has moved line to 5 and 148.5.ended up play uc minus 3.5 for 10 units but played fsu plus 5 and under 148.5 wrapped for 2 units.if it goes over i think unc covers.

 

[saint]

Honestly, sometimes I feel like the gambling gods are against me :shrug: Sorry guys, nothing I can do about blowing a 17 pt lead w/ 11 mins left.

 

[lowell]

go see the new movie "the cooler". sometimes you do feel like you are jinxed.this was a bad beat.we had the cover until unc made turnover with about 30 seconds to go.tough loss.

 

[hoff0214]

tought break dave i lost on it as well.very rarely do games make me physically ill but this was one of them.not only did i lose my wager but i lost my $10 dinner as well.you will bounce back.keep up the good work.